Search results for " Inference"
showing 10 items of 337 documents
Phylogenetic reconstruction of HCV genotype 1b dissemination in a small city centre: The Camporeale model
2008
Several seroepidemiological population-based surveys carried out in Italy have shown a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Camporeale (CP), a small Sicilian town with a 10.4% prevalence of HCV mostly genotype 1b, probably represents a specific context, since intravenous drug addiction, and sexual promiscuity are almost absent. In order to reconstruct the pattern of introduction and diffusion of HCV in this ecological niche, the NS5 genomic region of 72 HCV genotype 1 isolates (39 from CP and 33 collected throughout Sicily) was amplified and sequenced. Sequences were aligned and analyzed by BioEdit, PAUP and BEAST, and their molecular evolution compared. Thirty-eight HCV ge…
The evolution of mating preferences for genetic attractiveness and quality in the presence of sensory bias.
2022
The aesthetic preferences of potential mates have driven the evolution of a baffling diversity of elaborate ornaments. Which fitness benefit—if any—choosers gain from expressing such preferences is controversial, however. Here, we simulate the evolution of preferences for multiple ornament types (e.g., “Fisherian,” “handicap,” and “indicator” ornaments) that differ in their associations with genes for attractiveness and other components of fitness. We model the costs of preference expression in a biologically plausible way, which decouples costly mate search from cost-free preferences. Ornaments of all types evolved in our model, but their occurrence was far from random. Females typically p…
Bayesian modeling of the evolution of male height in 18th century Finland from incomplete data.
2012
Abstract Data on army recruits’ height are frequently available and can be used to analyze the economics and welfare of the population in different periods of history. However, such data are not a random sample from the whole population at the time of interest, but instead is skewed since the short men were less likely to be recruited. In statistical terms this means that the data are left-truncated. Although truncation is well-understood in statistics a further complication is that the truncation threshold is not known, may vary from time to time, and auxiliary information on the threshold is not at our disposal. The advantage of the fully Bayesian approach presented here is that both the …
Accelerating Causal Inference and Feature Selection Methods through G-Test Computation Reuse
2021
This article presents a novel and remarkably efficient method of computing the statistical G-test made possible by exploiting a connection with the fundamental elements of information theory: by writing the G statistic as a sum of joint entropy terms, its computation is decomposed into easily reusable partial results with no change in the resulting value. This method greatly improves the efficiency of applications that perform a series of G-tests on permutations of the same features, such as feature selection and causal inference applications because this decomposition allows for an intensive reuse of these partial results. The efficiency of this method is demonstrated by implementing it as…
ℓ1-Penalized Methods in High-Dimensional Gaussian Markov Random Fields
2016
In the last 20 years, we have witnessed the dramatic development of new data acquisition technologies allowing to collect massive amount of data with relatively low cost. is new feature leads Donoho to define the twenty-first century as the century of data. A major characteristic of this modern data set is that the number of measured variables is larger than the sample size; the word high-dimensional data analysis is referred to the statistical methods developed to make inference with this new kind of data. This chapter is devoted to the study of some of the most recent ℓ1-penalized methods proposed in the literature to make sparse inference in a Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) defined …
The facility layout problem approached using a fuzzy model and a genetic search
2005
The problem of facility layout design is discussed, taking into account the uncertainty of production scenarios and the finite production capacity of the departments. The uncertain production demand is modelled by a fuzzy number, and constrained arithmetic operators are used in order to calculate the fuzzy material handling costs. By using a ranking criterion, the layout that represents the minimum fuzzy cost is selected. A flexible bay structure is adopted as a physical model of the system while an effective genetic algorithm is implemented to search for a near optimal solution in a fuzzy contest. Constraints on the aspect ratio of the departments are taken into account using a penalty fun…
Reference Priors in a Variance Components Problem
1992
The ordered group reference prior algorithm of Berger and Bernardo (1989b) is applied to the balanced variance components problem. Besides the intrinsic interest of developing good noninformative priors for the variance components problem, a number of theoretically interesting issues arise in application of the proposed procedure. The algorithm is described (for completeness) in an important special case, with a detailed heuristic motivation.
Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues
2011
In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares estimator developed by Magnus, Powell, and Prüfer (2010, Journal of Econometrics 154: 139–153). Unlike standard pretest estimators that are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model-averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Spec…
Improvement of Statistical Decisions under Parametric Uncertainty
2011
A large number of problems in production planning and scheduling, location, transportation, finance, and engineering design require that decisions be made in the presence of uncertainty. Decision‐making under uncertainty is a central problem in statistical inference, and has been formally studied in virtually all approaches to inference. The aim of the present paper is to show how the invariant embedding technique, the idea of which belongs to the authors, may be employed in the particular case of finding the improved statistical decisions under parametric uncertainty. This technique represents a simple and computationally attractive statistical method based on the constructive use of the i…
A SYNTHETIC MEASURE FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF THE PROJECT PERFORMANCE
2009
The present paper aims to offer a synthetic project performance indicator (PPI) that aggregates two input parameters obtained by the Earned Value Analysis. The PPI is calculated by using a Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) able to single out a measure based on the input parameters, instead of formulating a mathematical model that could be a troublesome task whenever complex relations among the input variables exist. The purpose is to communicate the project performance to the stakeholders in a clear and complete way, for example, describing the PPI by means of contour lines.