Search results for " Markets"
showing 10 items of 321 documents
Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging
2021
En este artículo analizamos los determinantes del stock de FDI saliente de Japón para el período 1996–2017. Este período es especialmente relevante ya que abarca un proceso de creciente globalización económica y dos crisis financieras. Para ello, consideramos un amplio conjunto de variables candidatas basadas en la teoría, así como en análisis empíricos previos. Nuestra muestra incluye un total de 27 países anfitriones. Seleccionamos las covariables utilizando una metodología basada en datos, el análisis Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Además, también analizamos si estos determinantes cambian según el grado de desarrollo (emergentes vs desarrollados) o las áreas geográficas (UE vs Asia Orie…
No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35
2013
This paper analyzes the behavior of Ibex35 from January 1999 to December 2001, in order to check if it follows a different process from random walk so its return is not a white noise and it can be predictable, against the efficient market hypothesis. For that, a nonlinear generating process of return will be considered and a STAR-APARCH model will be specified. This model allows a nonlinear behavior in the conditional mean and in the conditional variance. The empirical results show that the Ibex35 follows a nonlinear and asymmetric process, both in the conditional mean as in the conditional variance, so the weak-version of efficient market hypothesis is rejected. El trabajo analiza el compo…
Unawareness and bankruptcy: A general equilibrium model
1998
International audience; We present a consistent pure-exchange general equilibrium model where agents may not be able to foresee all possible future contingencies. In this context, even with nominal assets and complete asset markets, an equilibrium may not exist without appropriate assumptions. Specific examples are provided. An existence result is proved under the main assumption that there are sufficiently many states that all the agents foresee. An intrinsic feature of the model is bankruptcy, which agents may involuntarily experience in the unforeseen states.
Stock market information and the relationship between real exchange rate and real interest rates
2013
In this paper we propose to augment the traditional relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates (RERI) by adding the stock market equilibrium condition to it. We introduce the relative dividend yield as the new information variable. In the empirical analysis we use recent monthly observations from the U.K., Japan, Canada and Eurozone, all relative to the U.S. We show that the introduction of stock market information is highly relevant for the functioning of the RERI hypothesis. Based on the results from the cointegration analysis the role of relative stock market performance is especially important in the short- term (3 month) horizon, where the augmented RERI represent…
Democracy, political risks and stock market performance
2015
We study whether the emerging stock markets’ performance is affected by direct and indirect effects of democracy level and political risk. We argue that the relationship between democracy level and the political risk is parabolic instead of a simple linear relation i.e. there exists a limit in democracy after which the political risk begins to decline and this is reflected in stock prices. Using panel data for 38 emerging markets at yearly frequency and controlling for several domestic and international factors, we find a fairly robust evidence that during the period 2000-2010, this relationship is true and after some threshold, the more democratic countries produce higher returns. Similar …
Is There Real Freedom of School Choice?: An Analysis from a Study in Chile1
2018
Between 1981 and 1990, Chile began to implement an education reform based on school choice and a financing system through vouchers. In theory, the system ensures complete freedom of choice of school by families. This article attempts to identify the existence of factors that conditioned the enrollment process in different types of schools existing nowadays in the Chilean educational system, the largest quasi-market of Latin America. Results show a social stratification and separation by schools and indicate how geographical distance and social composition are the most critical factors for families when choosing a school.
Regional Matching Frictions and Aggregate Unemployment
2006
This study demonstrates that a stochastic frontier approach applied to regional level data offers a convenient and interesting method to examine how regional differences in matching efficiency and structural factors contribute to aggregate unemployment. The study reveals notable and temporally stable differences in matching efficiency across travel-to-work areas in Finland. If all areas were as efficient as the most efficient one, the number of hirings would increase by about 40 per cent. This would reduce the aggregate unemployment rate from the current 8.5 per cent level to 6.0 per cent. If all the areas shared the same structural characteristics as the most favourable area, the aggregate…
Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool
2007
This paper analyses the forecasting power of weekly futures prices at Nord Pool. The forecasting power of futures prices is compared to an ARIMAX model of the spot price. The time series model contains lagged external variables such as: temperature, precipitation, reservoir levels and the basis (futures price less the spot price); and generally reflects the typical seasonal patterns in weekly spot prices. Results show that the time series model forecasts significantly beat futures prices when using the Diebold and Mariano (1995) test. Furthermore, the average forecasting error of futures prices reveals that they are significantly above the settlement spot price at the ‘delivery week’ and th…
Greenfield or M&A? An institutional and learning perspective on the establishment mode choice of Chinese outward investments
2020
Abstract We develop and test a model of Chinese greenfield investments using institutional and learning theories. Both the host country institutional context and the firm's international characteristics affect the establishment mode. Using 152 Chinese emerging market multinationals (EMNEs) with 401 subsidiaries distributed in 26 countries from 2003 to 2013, we build a database of 284 pairs of host country/Chinese firms to test two hypotheses. We find that, first, governance environment affects the establishment mode: greenfield investments are preferred over acquisitions in relation-based host markets, and M&As are preferred in rule-based countries. Second, the depth of Chinese EMNEs' inter…
Emerging Market Contagion Under Geopolitical Uncertainty
2019
We find that 10 emerging stock markets have high risk of contagion on the regional level but lower spillover with respect to the global markets, implying a potential for diversification benefits between emerging and global markets. Regional market integration seems to have been caused by trade integration, which has a policy implication for trade agreements’ systemic risk effects. We find that the geopolitical risk has no impact on either the return, or volatility spillovers. However, the general stock market risk (VIX) is connected to individual market volatilities, while the oil market is largely receiving the spillovers from the other markets. peerReviewed