Search results for " Modelling"
showing 10 items of 1055 documents
Arctic avian predators synchronise their spring migration with the northern progression of snowmelt
2020
AbstractMigratory species display a range of migration patterns between irruptive (facultative) to regular (obligate), as a response to different predictability of resources. In the Arctic, snow directly influences resource availability. The causes and consequences of different migration patterns of migratory species as a response to the snow conditions remains however unexplored. Birds migrating to the Arctic are expected to follow the spring snowmelt to optimise their arrival time and select for snow-free areas to maximise prey encounter en-route. Based on large-scale movement data, we compared the migration patterns of three top predator species of the tundra in relation to the spatio-te…
Spatio-Temporal model structures with shared components for semi-continuous species distribution modelling
2017
Abstract Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamism and environmental relationships of species is essential for the conservation of natural resources. Many spatio-temporally sampled processes result in continuous positive [ 0 , ∞ ) abundance datasets that have many zero values observed in areas that lie outside their optimum niche. In such cases the most common option is to use two-part or hurdle models, which fit independent models and consequently independent environmental effects to occurrence and conditional-to-presence abundance. This may be correct in some cases, but not as much in others where the detection probability is related to the abundance. The aim of this work is to infer the…
High-resolution numerical modelling of the barotropic tides in the Gulf of Gabes, eastern Mediterranean Sea (Tunisia)
2017
International audience; A high-resolution 2D barotropic tidal model was developed for the Gulf of Gabes and used to characterise hydrodynamic processes and tidal dynamics. The model is based on the Regional Ocean Modelling System. It is forced at the open boundaries by the semidiurnal M2 and S2 astronomical components while meteorological forcing has been neglected. The model results show good agreement with observations confirming that it reproduces the gulf's main tidal characteristics reasonably well. In fact, the simulated semidiurnal tidal components M2 and S2 generate important sea level variations and coastal currents. Tidal propagation is directed to the gulf's western sector while …
Disjunct populations of European vascular plant species keep the same climatic niches
2015
Aim Previous research on how climatic niches vary across species ranges has focused on a limited number of species, mostly invasive, and has not, to date, been very conclusive. Here we assess the d ...
Statistical modelling and RCS detrending methods provide similar estimates of long-term trend in radial growth of common beech in north-eastern France
2011
International audience; Dendrochronological methods have greatly contributed to the documentation of past long-term trends in forest growth. These methods primarily focus on the high-frequency signals of tree ring chronologies. They require the removal of the ageing trend in tree growth, known as 'standardisation' or 'detrending', as a prerequisite to the estimation of such trends. Because the approach is sequential, it may however absorb part of the low-frequency historical signal. In this study, we investigate the effect of a sequential and a simultaneous estimation of the ageing trend on the chronology of growth. We formerly developed a method to estimate historical changes in growth, in…
Environmental Modelling of Forest Vegetation Zones as A Support Tool for Sustainable Management of Central European Spruce Forests
2018
Abstract The impact of climate change on forest ecosystems may manifest itself by a shift in forest vegetation zones in the landscape northward and into higher elevations. Studies of climate change-induced vegetation zone shifts in forest ecosystems have been relatively rare in the context of European temperate zone (apart from Alpine regions). The presented paper outlines the results of a biogeographic model of climatic conditions in forest vegetation zones applied in the Central European landscape. The objective of the study is a prediction of future silvicultural conditions for the Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst.), which is one of the principal tree species within European forests. …
IPSIM-Cirsium, a Qualitative Expert-Based Model to Predict Infestations of Cirsium arvense
2021
Throughout Europe, Cirsium arvense is the most problematic perennial weed in arable crops, whether managed under organic or conventional agriculture. Non-chemical control methods are limited with partial efficacy. Knowledge is missing on their effect across a wide gradient of cropping systems and pedoclimates. To achieve effective Cirsium arvense management ensuring crop productivity while limiting the reliance of cropping systems on herbicide, expert-based models are needed to gather knowledge on the effect of individual levers and their interactions in order to (i) design and assess finely tuned combinations of farming practices in different pedoclimates and (ii) support decisions for Cir…
Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate
2013
The Iberian lynx ( Lynx pardinus ) has suffered severe population declines in the twentieth century and is now on the brink of extinction 1 . Climate change could further threaten the survival of the species 2 , but its forecast effects are being neglected in recovery plans 3,4 . Quantitative estimates of extinction risk under climate change have so far mostly relied on inferences from correlative projections of species’ habitat shifts 5 . Here we use ecological niche models coupled to metapopulation simulations with source–sink dynamics 6,7 to directly investi- gate the combined effects of climate change, prey availabil- ity and management intervention on the persistence of the Iberian lyn…
The influence of temperature model assumptions on the prognosis accuracy of extinction risk
2000
Abstract For a species whose abundance is well-known to correlate on the degree of heat different temperature model assumptions may affect the prognosis accuracy of persistence. Likewise, year-to-year autocorrelations in weather fluctuations are known to decrease extinction risk. Thus, we investigated the grey bush cricket Platycleis albopunctata . For this species is known that growth and reproduction is mainly influenced by temperature. We developed a stochastic individual based model for the bush cricket. This day–degree model described the demographic growth of the species that depends on temperature. Daily temperatures were generated by five different methods: (i) temperatures were seq…
Regional and Supra-Regional Coherence in Limnological Variabler
2009
Limnologists and water resources managers have traditionally perceived lakes as discrete geographical entities. This has resulted in a tendency for scientific lake studies to concentrate on lakes as individuals, with little connection either to each other or to large-scale driving forces. Since the 1990s, however, a shift in the prevailing paradigm has occurred, with lakes increasingly being seen as responding to regional, rather than local, driving forces. The seminal work on regional coherence in lake behaviour was that of Magnuson et al. (1990), who showed that many features of lakes within the same region respond coherently to drivers such as climate forcing and catchment processes. Fro…