Search results for " Models"
showing 10 items of 4240 documents
Climate change impact on the West African monsoon from June to October.
2015
Sixteen CMIP5 models are used toanalyse how climate changes over the West African Monsoon region between a “future period”, defined from 2031 to 2070under the rcp4.5 emission scenario, and the “current period”, defined from 1960 to 1999 under the historical emissionscenario. The results show an increase of the September to October rainfall amounts. Circulation anomalies include of anincreases of sea-level pressure over the Mediterranean Sea and Europe that allow a strengthening of the moisture flux fromEuro-Mediterranean regions into the Sahel. These changes are stronger in autumn.
Noise-induced behavioral change driven by transient chaos
2022
We study behavioral change in the context of a stochastic, non-linear consumption model with preference adjusting, interdependent agents. Changes in long-run consumption behavior are modelled as noise induced transitions between coexisting attractors. A particular case of multistability is considered: two fixed points, whose immediate basins have smooth boundaries, coexist with a periodic attractor, with a fractal immediate basin boundary. If a trajectory leaves an immediate basin, it enters a set of complexly intertwined basins for which final state uncertainty prevails. The standard approach to predicting transition events rooted in the stochastic sensitivity function technique due to Mil…
Evaluation of simulated CO2 power plant plumes from six high-resolution atmospheric transport models
2023
Power plants and large industrial facilities contribute more than half of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Quantifying the emissions of these point sources is therefore one of the main goals of the planned constellation of anthropogenic CO2 monitoring satellites (CO2M) of the European Copernicus program. Atmospheric transport models may be used to study the capabilities of such satellites through observing system simulation experiments and to quantify emissions in an inverse modeling framework. How realistically the CO2 plumes of power plants can be simulated and how strongly the results may depend on model type and resolution, however, is not well known due to a lack of observations ava…
A Statistical Study to Analyze the Impact of External Weather Change on Chronic Pulmonary Infection in South Norway with Machine Learning Algorithms
2021
In this paper, we analyzed the holistic impact of external weather on chronic pulmonary infection in the Agder region with traditional machine learning algorithms. Millions of people are diagnosed with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). Our study is dedicated in the Agder region, the Southern part of Norway. Norway has four seasons – winter (December-February), late winter/spring (March-May), Summer (June-August), and Autumn (September-November) in a year with average annual temperature approx. 7.5 °C | 45.5 °F and an annual rainfall of 1260 mm or 49.6 in. in Kristiansand. As predicted by the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2016, Norway suffered from 8% mortality due to c(1)h…
Socio-economic deprivation and COVID-19 infection: a Bayesian spatial modelling approach
2022
Il presente articolo ha l’obiettivo di analizzare l’effetto della deprivazione socio-economica sull’incidenza da COVID-19 a livello sub-comunale. Grazie alla disponibilit`a di informazioni sui tassi di incidenza mensili da COVID-19 a livello di sezione di censimento per i due comuni di Palermo e Catania (Italia), viene pro- posto l’utilizzo di un modello spaziale Bayesiano con distribuzione binomiale zero- inflated. I risultati mostrano un’associazione tra livelli di deprivazione e incidenza da COVID-19 nei due comuni, controllando per la struttura spaziale delle unit`a areali considerate. Alla luce dei risultati, si rendono necessarie azioni di politica sanitaria focalizzando gli intervent…
The flesh ethanolic extract of Hylocereus polyrhizus exerts anti-inflammatory effects and prevents murine colitis
2015
IBD is a chronic disorder of the gastrointestinal tract characterized by mucosal inflammation and epithelial damage. Biologic therapy has significantly improved the course of the disease but there are still a high percentage of patients that do not respond to current therapies. We aim to determine the effects of the flesh ethanolic extract of Hylocereus polyrhizus (EH) in a mice model of colitis induced by TNBS.Balb/c mice received TNBS (175 mg/kg, 100 μl, i.r.) and six and thirty hours later were administered with EH (1 g/kg, i.p.). Mice were weighted daily and after sacrificing (2 and 4 days after TNBS) we analyzed mucosal histology, myeloperoxidase activity (MPO), the expression of pro-i…
Procalcitonin and long-term prognosis after an admission for acute heart failure
2014
Abstract Background Traditionally, procalcitonin (PCT) is considered a diagnostic marker of bacterial infections. However, slightly elevated levels of PCT have also been found in patients with heart failure. In this context, it has been suggested that PCT may serve as a proxy for underrecognized infection, endotoxemia, or heightened proinflammatory activity. Nevertheless, the clinical utility of PCT in this setting is scarce. We aimed to evaluate the association between PCT and the risk of long-term outcomes. Methods and results We measured at admission PCT of 261 consecutive patients admitted for acute heart failure (AHF) after excluding active infection. Cox and negative binomial regressi…
Low preoperative cholesterol level is a risk factor of sepsis and poor clinical outcome in patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary b…
2014
Systemic inflammatory response syndrome and sepsis frequently occur after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether preoperative cholesterol levels can predict sepsis onset and postoperative complications in patients undergoing cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass.Prospective observational study.Surgical ICU of a French university hospital.Two hundred and seventeen consecutive patients older than 18 years admitted for planned cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass.Measurements of plasma blood lipids and inflammation markers before anesthesia induction (baseline), at cardiopulmonary bypass start, at cardiopulmonary bypass…
Influence of different biomaterials on the viability of Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans
2011
Abstract Objectives The aim of the present in vitro study was to evaluate the effects of different biomaterials used for regenerative periodontal surgery on the growth of the periodontopathogen Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans . Methods Three commercially available biomaterials of synthetic origin (hydroxyapatite/beta-tricalcium phosphate, nanostructured hydroxyapatite paste, oily calcium hydroxide suspension), a bovine-derived xenograft as well as an enamel matrix derivative (EMD) were added in different concentrations to calibrated suspensions of A. actinomycetemcomitans ATCC 43718/33384 (serotype b/c). Equal aliquots (0.1 ml) for the viability assay were taken after 5 min, 1 h, 3 h,…
Uncertainty in environmental and hydrological mathematical modelling
2012
The current state of knowledge regarding uncertainties in urban drainage models is poor. This is in part due to the lack of clarity in the way model uncertainty analyses are conducted and how the results are presented and used. There is a need for a common terminology and a conceptual framework for describing and estimating uncertainties in urban drainage models. Practical tools for the assessment of model uncertainties for a range of urban drainage models are also required to be developed. This paper, produced by the International Working Group on Data and Models, which works under the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, is a contribution to the development of a harmonised framewor…