Search results for " Normal"
showing 10 items of 336 documents
Holt–Winters Forecasting: An Alternative Formulation Applied to UK Air Passenger Data
2007
Abstract This paper provides a formulation for the additive Holt–Winters forecasting procedure that simplifies both obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of all unknowns, smoothing parameters and initial conditions, and the computation of point forecasts and reliable predictive intervals. The stochastic component of the model is introduced by means of additive, uncorrelated, homoscedastic and Normal errors, and then the joint distribution of the data vector, a multivariate Normal distribution, is obtained. In the case where a data transformation was used to improve the fit of the model, cumulative forecasts are obtained here using a Monte-Carlo approximation. This paper describes the metho…
The conditional censored graphical lasso estimator
2020
© 2020, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. In many applied fields, such as genomics, different types of data are collected on the same system, and it is not uncommon that some of these datasets are subject to censoring as a result of the measurement technologies used, such as data generated by polymerase chain reactions and flow cytometer. When the overall objective is that of network inference, at possibly different levels of a system, information coming from different sources and/or different steps of the analysis can be integrated into one model with the use of conditional graphical models. In this paper, we develop a doubly penalized inferential procedure for…
Local Asymptotic Normality for Shape and Periodicity in the Drift of a Time Inhomogeneous Diffusion
2017
We consider a one-dimensional diffusion whose drift contains a deterministic periodic signal with unknown periodicity $T$ and carrying some unknown $d$-dimensional shape parameter $\theta$. We prove Local Asymptotic Normality (LAN) jointly in $\theta$ and $T$ for the statistical experiment arising from continuous observation of this diffusion. The local scale turns out to be $n^{-1/2}$ for the shape parameter and $n^{-3/2}$ for the periodicity which generalizes known results about LAN when either $\theta$ or $T$ is assumed to be known.
Recursive estimation of the conditional geometric median in Hilbert spaces
2012
International audience; A recursive estimator of the conditional geometric median in Hilbert spaces is studied. It is based on a stochastic gradient algorithm whose aim is to minimize a weighted L1 criterion and is consequently well adapted for robust online estimation. The weights are controlled by a kernel function and an associated bandwidth. Almost sure convergence and L2 rates of convergence are proved under general conditions on the conditional distribution as well as the sequence of descent steps of the algorithm and the sequence of bandwidths. Asymptotic normality is also proved for the averaged version of the algorithm with an optimal rate of convergence. A simulation study confirm…
A more efficient second order blind identification method for separation of uncorrelated stationary time series
2016
The classical second order source separation methods use approximate joint diagonalization of autocovariance matrices with several lags to estimate the unmixing matrix. Based on recent asymptotic results, we propose a novel unmixing matrix estimator which selects the best lag set from a finite set of candidate sets specified by the user. The theory is illustrated by a simulation study.
Some links between conditional and coregionalized multivariate Gaussian Markov random fields
2020
Abstract Multivariate disease mapping models are attracting considerable attention. Many modeling proposals have been made in this area, which could be grouped into three large sets: coregionalization, multivariate conditional and univariate conditional models. In this work we establish some links between these three groups of proposals. Specifically, we explore the equivalence between the two conditional approaches and show that an important class of coregionalization models can be seen as a large subclass of the conditional approaches. Additionally, we propose an extension to the current set of coregionalization models with some new unexplored proposals. This extension is able to reproduc…
Multivariate nonparametric tests of independence
2005
New test statistics are proposed for testing whether two random vectors are independent. Gieser and Randles, as well as Taskinen, Kankainen, and Oja have introduced and discussed multivariate extensions of the quadrant test of Blomqvist. This article serves as a sequel to this work and presents new multivariate extensions of Kendall's tau and Spearman's rho statistics. Two different approaches are discussed. First, interdirection proportions are used to estimate the cosines of angles between centered observation vectors and between differences of observation vectors. Second, covariances between affine-equivariant multivariate signs and ranks are used. The test statistics arising from these …
On easily interpretable multivariate reference regions of rectangular shape
2011
Till now, multivariate reference regions have played only a marginal role in the practice of clinical chemistry and laboratory medicine. The major reason for this fact is that such regions are traditionally determined by means of concentration ellipsoids of multidimensional Gaussian distributions yielding reference limits which do not allow statements about possible outlyingness of measurements taken in specific diagnostic tests from a given patient or subject. As a promising way around this difficulty we propose to construct multivariate reference regions as p-dimensional rectangles or (in the one-sided case) rectangular half-spaces whose edges determine univariate percentile ranges of the…
Affine-invariant rank tests for multivariate independence in independent component models
2016
We consider the problem of testing for multivariate independence in independent component (IC) models. Under a symmetry assumption, we develop parametric and nonparametric (signed-rank) tests. Unlike in independent component analysis (ICA), we allow for the singular cases involving more than one Gaussian independent component. The proposed rank tests are based on componentwise signed ranks, à la Puri and Sen. Unlike the Puri and Sen tests, however, our tests (i) are affine-invariant and (ii) are, for adequately chosen scores, locally and asymptotically optimal (in the Le Cam sense) at prespecified densities. Asymptotic local powers and asymptotic relative efficiencies with respect to Wilks’…
Unacceptable implications of the left haar measure in a standard normal theory inference problem
1978
For a very common statistical problem, inference about the mean of a normal random variable, some inadmissible consequences of the left Haar invariant prior measure, which is that recommended as a suitable prior by Jeffreys’ multivariate rule and by the methods of Villegas and Kashyap, are uncovered and investigated.