Search results for " Outbreak"
showing 10 items of 640 documents
Nowcasting COVID‐19 incidence indicators during the Italian first outbreak
2020
A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. Accurate short-term predictions, including the potential effect of exogenous or external variables are provided. This ensures to accurately predict important characteristics of the epidemic (e.g., peak time and height), allowing for a better allocation of health resources over time. Parameter estimation is carried out in a maximum likelihood framework. All computational details required to reproduce the approach and replica…
Low-altitude outbreaks of human fascioliasis related with summer rainfall in Gilan province, Iran
2011
Following human fascioliasis outbreaks in 1988 and 1999 in Gilan province, northern Iran, efforts are now made to shed light on the seasonal pattern of fascioliasis transmission in this endemic area, taking into account snail host populations, climatic conditions and human cases. Populations of the intermediate host snail (Lymnaea spp.) peak in May and November, while there is a fourfold increase in the rate of human fascioliasis in February compared to that of September. Transmission is likely to occur mainly in late autumn and sporadically in late spring. Rainfall, seasonally analysed in periods of 3 years, indicates that accumulated summer rainfall may be related with the 1988 and 1999 h…
Firms’ investment, indebtedness and financial constraints: Size does matter
2022
Abstract This paper provides evidence of the importance of size in explaining the impact of financing conditions on firms´ investment rate. The study makes two main contributions: a) it allows the relationship between indebtedness and firms´ investment to be non-linear; and b) it contrasts whether the impact of indebtedness and the degree of financial restriction differ depending on the size of the company (SME vs large). Results show that while in SMEs indebtedness has a negative impact on investment, there is a threshold beyond which this effect is even larger (based on a debt/assets ratio of 59%). However, in large companies the impact of indebtedness is positive although there is also a…
Moving closer? Comparing regional adjustments to shocks in EMU and the United States
2020
Highlights • Interstate migration is the main adjustment channel to labor demand shocks for the US. • EMU countries adjust through changes in labor force participation and unemployment. • Price flexibility is more important as a shock absorber for EMU. • Risk-sharing mechanisms have been more effective in the US than in the EMU. • The strength of these channels has increased for EMU ad declined for the United States.
Changes to legal forensic inspections in Sicily during Covid-19
2020
Our institute, in collaboration with the Public Prosecutor’s Office, arranges for cadaveric inspections during a judicial inspection, jointly with the police. With the advent of the Covid-19 pandemic, operating methods have changed. Specifically, we now discuss the cases individually before attending to guarantee the health of operators and citizens
Assessment of the microbiological quality of fresh produce on sale in Sicily, Italy: preliminary results
2015
Background Fresh produce occupies an increasingly important place in the human food supply because of its health-promoting nutritional properties. Most fresh produce is eaten raw or after minimal processing and, consequently, pathogen contamination can represent a serious health risk. There has been an increase in foodborne outbreaks and cases associated with fresh produce, but literature data about the prevalence of pathogen contamination are inconsistent. This study was undertaken to assess the hygienic quality and the prevalence of the most common bacterial pathogens in fresh produce sold in retail markets in Sicily. A total of 125 samples of different types of vegetables were examined b…
Outside-host growth of pathogens attenuates epidemiological outbreaks.
2012
Opportunist saprotrophic pathogens differ from obligatory pathogens due to their capability in host-independent growth in environmental reservoirs. Thus, the outside-host environment potentially influences host-pathogen dynamics. Despite the socio-economical importance of these pathogens, theory on their dynamics is practically missing. We analyzed a novel epidemiological model that couples outside-host density-dependent growth to host-pathogen dynamics. Parameterization was based on columnaris disease, a major hazard in fresh water fish farms caused by saprotrophic Flavobacterium columnare. Stability analysis and numerical simulations revealed that the outside-host growth maintains high pr…
The COVID-19 pandemic could be a setback for gender equality in oncology-and a key moment to push ahead with transformative policies.
2021
Molecular epidemiology and forensic genetics: application to a hepatitis C virus transmission event at a hemodialysis unit.
2002
Molecular phylogenetic analyses are frequently used in epidemiologic testing, although only occasionally in forensics. Their acceptability is hampered by a lack of statistical confidence in the conclusions. However, maximum likelihood testing provides a sound statistical framework for the testing of phylogenetic hypotheses relevant for forensic analysis. We present the results of applying this method to a small hepatitis C outbreak produced in a hospital hemodialysis unit that involved 6 patients. Polymerase chain reaction products from a 472-nt fragment of the E1-E2 region, including the hypervariable region, HVR-1, of the hepatitis C virus genome were cloned, and an average of 10 clones/p…
Recombination drives genome evolution in outbreak-related Legionella pneumophila isolates.
2014
Legionella pneumophila is a strictly environmental pathogen and the etiological agent of legionellosis. It is known that non-vertical processes have a major role in the short-term evolution of pathogens, but little is known about the relevance of these and other processes in environmental bacteria. We report the whole-genome sequencing of 69 L. pneumophila strains linked to recurrent outbreaks in a single location (Alcoy, Spain) over 11 years. We found some examples where the genome sequences of isolates of the same sequence type and outbreak did not cluster together and were more closely related to sequences from different outbreaks. Our analyses identify 16 recombination events responsibl…