Search results for " Price"
showing 10 items of 290 documents
The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe
2016
Abstract. Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on an…
On the Pricing and Hedging of Options on Commodity Forward and Futures Contracts - A Note
2007
In recent years there appeared some organized markets for forward contracts and options on these contracts. In this paper we review shortly the organization of trade on a centralized forward market. Assuming a friction-free market with constant interest rate we build a consistent continuous time framework for the valuation and hedging of options on a forward or a futures contract. This framework takes into account the peculiarities of a forward/futures contract. In our framework we consider the pricing and hedging of options on a forward contract and reconsider the Black-76 model for the pricing and hedging of options on a futures contract.
The Role of Force
1995
Max Weber defined the state as an organization which successfully maintained the monopoly of legitimate violence over certain territory. This definition, simple as it is, raises several problems. Firstly, it should be noted that it is at best the definition of the modern State. There have been organizations which are, perhaps anachronistically, called states by historians or anthropologists, but which did not satisfy the definition.
Statistical Properties of Statistical Ensembles of Stock Returns
1999
We select n stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange and we form a statistical ensemble of daily stock returns for each of the k trading days of our database from the stock price time series. We analyze each ensemble of stock returns by extracting its first four central moments. We observe that these moments are fluctuating in time and are stochastic processes themselves. We characterize the statistical properties of central moments by investigating their probability density function and temporal correlation properties.
Entry with two correlated signals : the case of industrial espionage and its positive competitive effects
2021
Recent advances in information and communication technologies have increased the incentives for firms to acquire information about rivals. These advances may have major implications for market entry because they make it easier for potential entrants to gather valuable information about, for example, an incumbent’s cost structure. However, little theoretical research has actually analyzed this question. This paper advances the literature by extending a one-sided asymmetric information version of Milgrom and Roberts’ (1982) limit pricing model. Here, the entrant is allowed access to an intelligence system (IS) of a certain precision that generates a noisy signal on the incumbent’s cost struct…
Weighting Elementary Prices in Consumer Price Index Construction Using Spatial Autocorrelation
2013
The Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) are used in current economic systems to measure inflation. When constructing CPIs, however, official institutions have systematically overlooked the spatial dimension of elementary prices. Ignoring the fact that prices are collected at geographical locations implicitly implies considering prices as spatially independent, when in fact they are not. To solve this problem, this article proposes to weight basic price data by taking into account the spatial correlation they display. The weighted geometric and arithmetic means suggested generalize and improve the simple geometric and arithmetic means currently in use.
Dynamics of the Number of Trades of Financial Securities
1999
We perform a parallel analysis of the spectral density of (i) the logarithm of price and (ii) the daily number of trades of a set of stocks traded in the New York Stock Exchange. The stocks are selected to be representative of a wide range of stock capitalization. The observed spectral densities show a different power-law behavior. We confirm the $1/f^2$ behavior for the spectral density of the logarithm of stock price whereas we detect a $1/f$-like behavior for the spectral density of the daily number of trades.
Monte Carlo simulations of a trader-based market model
2002
Abstract We present a detailed analysis of the stationary state and the parameter sensitivity of a trader-based market model suggested in Bak et al. (Physica A 246 (1997) 430). The model in question takes only so-called noise-traders into account and its properties are determined by mutual imitation of the traders and volatility feedback. We show that the stationary state of the model can be characterized by a log-normal distribution of the bid and ask prices relative to the current market price. In the stationary state the model is able to reproduce the so-called stylized facts of real markets. This property is stable under variation of the essential parameters of the model, number of trad…
Sticky-Price Models and the Natural Rate Hypothesis
2005
A major criticism of standard specifications of price adjustment in models for monetary policy analysis is that they violate the natural rate hypothesis by allowing output to differ from potential in steady state. In this paper we estimate a dynamic optimizing business cycle model whose price-setting behavior satisfies the natural rate hypothesis. The price-adjustment specifications we consider are the sticky-information specification of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and the indexed contracts of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005). Our empirical estimates of the real side of the economy are similar whichever price adjustment specification is chosen. Consequently, the alternative model specifi…
Can fiscal policy stimulus boost economic recovery
2011
We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. Consequently, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments (e.g. via taxes on capital gains) may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts, which gives rise to the importance of the im…