Search results for " Probability distribution"
showing 10 items of 100 documents
On Association Models Defined over Independence Graphs
1998
Conditions on joint distributions are given under which two variables will be conditionally associated whenever an independence graph does not imply a corresponding conditional independence statement. To this end the notions of parametric cancellation, of stable paths and of quasi-linear models are discussed in some detail.
Binary distributions of concentric rings
2014
We introduce families of jointly symmetric, binary distributions that are generated over directed star graphs whose nodes represent variables and whose edges indicate positive dependences. The families are parametrized in terms of a single parameter. It is an outstanding feature of these distributions that joint probabilities relate to evenly spaced concentric rings. Kronecker product characterizations make them computationally attractive for a large number of variables. We study the behavior of different measures of dependence and derive maximum likelihood estimates when all nodes are observed and when the inner node is hidden.
Holt–Winters Forecasting: An Alternative Formulation Applied to UK Air Passenger Data
2007
Abstract This paper provides a formulation for the additive Holt–Winters forecasting procedure that simplifies both obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of all unknowns, smoothing parameters and initial conditions, and the computation of point forecasts and reliable predictive intervals. The stochastic component of the model is introduced by means of additive, uncorrelated, homoscedastic and Normal errors, and then the joint distribution of the data vector, a multivariate Normal distribution, is obtained. In the case where a data transformation was used to improve the fit of the model, cumulative forecasts are obtained here using a Monte-Carlo approximation. This paper describes the metho…
Identifying Causal Effects with the R Package causaleffect
2017
Do-calculus is concerned with estimating the interventional distribution of an action from the observed joint probability distribution of the variables in a given causal structure. All identifiable causal effects can be derived using the rules of do-calculus, but the rules themselves do not give any direct indication whether the effect in question is identifiable or not. Shpitser and Pearl constructed an algorithm for identifying joint interventional distributions in causal models, which contain unobserved variables and induce directed acyclic graphs. This algorithm can be seen as a repeated application of the rules of do-calculus and known properties of probabilities, and it ultimately eit…
Global and multiple test procedures using ordered p-values—a review
2004
This paper reviews global and multiple tests for the combination ofn hypotheses using the orderedp-values of then individual tests. In 1987, Rohmel and Streitberg presented a general method to construct global level α tests based on orderedp-values when there exists no prior knowledge regarding the joint distribution of the corresponding test statistics. In the case of independent test statistics, construction of global tests is available by means of recursive formulae presented by Bicher (1989), Kornatz (1994) and Finner and Roters (1994). Multiple test procedures can be developed by applying the closed test principle using these global tests as building blocks. Liu (1996) proposed represe…
Recursive estimation of the conditional geometric median in Hilbert spaces
2012
International audience; A recursive estimator of the conditional geometric median in Hilbert spaces is studied. It is based on a stochastic gradient algorithm whose aim is to minimize a weighted L1 criterion and is consequently well adapted for robust online estimation. The weights are controlled by a kernel function and an associated bandwidth. Almost sure convergence and L2 rates of convergence are proved under general conditions on the conditional distribution as well as the sequence of descent steps of the algorithm and the sequence of bandwidths. Asymptotic normality is also proved for the averaged version of the algorithm with an optimal rate of convergence. A simulation study confirm…
Pairwise Markov properties for regression graphs
2016
With a sequence of regressions, one may generate joint probability distributions. One starts with a joint, marginal distribution of context variables having possibly a concentration graph structure and continues with an ordered sequence of conditional distributions, named regressions in joint responses. The involved random variables may be discrete, continuous or of both types. Such a generating process specifies for each response a conditioning set that contains just its regressor variables, and it leads to at least one valid ordering of all nodes in the corresponding regression graph that has three types of edge: one for undirected dependences among context variables, another for undirect…
MCMC methods to approximate conditional predictive distributions
2006
Sampling from conditional distributions is a problem often encountered in statistics when inferences are based on conditional distributions which are not of closed-form. Several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to simulate from them are proposed. Potential problems are pointed out and some suitable modifications are suggested. Approximations based on conditioning sets are also explored. The issues are illustrated within a specific statistical tool for Bayesian model checking, and compared in an example. An example in frequentist conditional testing is also given.
Analysis of resources distribution in economics based on entropy
2002
We propose a new approach to the problem of e0cient resources distribution in di1erent types of economic systems. We also propose to use entropy as an indicator of the e0ciency of resources distribution. Our approach is based on methods of statistical physics in which the states of economic systems are described in terms of the density functions � (g; � ) of the variable — — — — � �
Objective Priors for Discrete Parameter Spaces
2012
This article considers the development of objective prior distributions for discrete parameter spaces. Formal approaches to such development—such as the reference prior approach—often result in a constant prior for a discrete parameter, which is questionable for problems that exhibit certain types of structure. To take advantage of structure, this article proposes embedding the original problem in a continuous problem that preserves the structure, and then using standard reference prior theory to determine the appropriate objective prior. Four different possibilities for this embedding are explored, and applied to a population-size model, the hypergeometric distribution, the multivariate hy…