Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
An NDC approach to helping pensioners cope with the cost of long-term care
2018
The aim of this paper is to analyse whether it would be possible to provide retirement and long-term care benefits using the same unfunded notional defined contribution scheme. We extend the multi-state overlapping generations model developed by Pla-Porcel et al. (2016) to include two new features: a long-term care benefit graded according to the annuitant's degree of disability and a minimum pension benefit for both contingencies. This brings the model closer to the reality of social insurance and enhances its political attractiveness. The paper contains a numerical example to show how the model functions and focuses especially on the mortality rates for dependent persons, the inception ra…
Probabilities of conditionals and previsions of iterated conditionals
2019
Abstract We analyze selected iterated conditionals in the framework of conditional random quantities. We point out that it is instructive to examine Lewis's triviality result, which shows the conditions a conditional must satisfy for its probability to be the conditional probability. In our approach, however, we avoid triviality because the import-export principle is invalid. We then analyze an example of reasoning under partial knowledge where, given a conditional if A then C as information, the probability of A should intuitively increase. We explain this intuition by making some implicit background information explicit. We consider several (generalized) iterated conditionals, which allow…
Digital image analysis technique for measuring railway track defects and ballast gradation
2018
Abstract In order to guarantee safety and driving comfort and to maintain an efficient railway infrastructure, the first step is to carefully monitor the track geometry and wear level of the materials constituting the superstructure. To that end diagnostic trains are widely used on main lines, in that they can detect several geometric track parameters and rail wear, but under no circumstances they can yet detect ballast gradation. Due to the practical implications for the planning of maintenance operations on the railway network, this article presents a “DIP” digital image processing technique for measuring the transverse profile and corrugations of the rails as well as ballast gradation. T…
Dasymetric distribution of votes in a dense city
2017
[EN] A large proportion of electoral analyses using geography are performed on a small area basis, such as polling units. Unfortunately, polling units are frequently redrawn, provoking breaks in their data series. Previous electoral results play a key role in many analyses. They are used by political party workers and journalists to present quick assessments of outcomes, by political scientists and electoral geographers to perform detailed scrutinizes and by pollsters and forecasters to anticipate electoral results. In this paper, we study to what extent more complex geographical approaches (based on a proper location of electors on the territory using dasymetric techniques) are of value in…
Measurements of baryon pair decays of chi(cJ) mesons
2013
Using 106 $\times 10^{6}$ $\psi^{\prime}$ decays collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII, three decays of $\chi_{cJ}$ ($J=0,1,2$) with baryon pairs ($\llb$, $\ssb$, $\SSB$) in the final state have been studied. The branching fractions are measured to be $\cal{B}$$(\chi_{c0,1,2}\rightarrow\Lambda\bar\Lambda) =(33.3 \pm 2.0 \pm 2.6)\times 10^{-5}$, $(12.2 \pm 1.1 \pm 1.1)\times 10^{-5}$, $(20.8 \pm 1.6 \pm 2.3)\times 10^{-5}$; $\cal{B}$$(\chi_{c0,1,2}\rightarrow\Sigma^{0}\bar\Sigma^{0})$ = $(47.8 \pm 3.4 \pm 3.9)\times 10^{-5}$, $(3.8 \pm 1.0 \pm 0.5)\times 10^{-5}$, $(4.0 \pm 1.1 \pm 0.5) \times 10^{-5}$; and $\cal{B}$$(\chi_{c0,1,2}\rightarrow\Sigma^{+}\bar\Sigma^{-})$ = $(45.4 \pm…
Practical Issues on Energy-Growth Nexus Data and Variable Selection With Bayesian Analysis
2018
Abstract Given that the energy-growth nexus (EGN) is short of a complete theoretical base, the production function used therein is typically complemented with numerous variables that characterize an economy. Researchers are often puzzled not only with the selection of variables per se, but also with the variable sources and the various data handlings which become apparent and available only after years of experience in this research field. Thus, this chapter is divided into two distinctive parts: The first part contains an overview of the available data sources for the EGN as well as a succinct selection of advice on data handlings, transformations, and interpretations that could come handy…
On incorporating the paradigms of discretization and Bayesian estimation to create a new family of pursuit learning automata
2013
Published version of an article in the journal: Applied Intelligence. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10489-013-0424-x There are currently two fundamental paradigms that have been used to enhance the convergence speed of Learning Automata (LA). The first involves the concept of utilizing the estimates of the reward probabilities, while the second involves discretizing the probability space in which the LA operates. This paper demonstrates how both of these can be simultaneously utilized, and in particular, by using the family of Bayesian estimates that have been proven to have distinct advantages over their maximum likelihood counterparts. The success of LA-…
Rejection odds and rejection ratios: A proposal for statistical practice in testing hypotheses
2016
Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over 50 years. We propose, as an alternative, the use of the odds of a correct rejection of the null hypothesis to incorrect rejection. Both pre-experimental versions (involving the power and Type I error) and post-experimental versions (depending on the actual data) are considered. Implementations are provided that range from depending only on the p-value to consideration of full Bayesian analysis. A surprise is that all implementations -- even the full Baye…
Bayesian Methodology in Statistics
2009
Bayesian methods provide a complete paradigm for statistical inference under uncertainty. These may be derived from an axiomatic system and provide a coherent methodology which makes it possible to incorporate relevant initial information, and which solves many of the difficulties that frequentist methods are known to face. If no prior information is to be assumed, the more frequent situation met in scientific reporting, a formal initial prior function, the reference prior, mathematically derived from the assumed model, is used; this leads to objective Bayesian methods, objective in the precise sense that their results, like frequentist results, only depend on the assumed model and the data…
Finding Prediction Limits for a Future Number of Failures in the Prescribed Time Interval under Parametric Uncertainty
2012
Computing prediction intervals is an important part of the forecasting process intended to indicate the likely uncertainty in point forecasts. Prediction intervals for future order statistics are widely used for reliability problems and other related problems. In this paper, we present an accurate procedure, called ‘within-sample prediction of order statistics', to obtain prediction limits for the number of failures that will be observed in a future inspection of a sample of units, based only on the results of the first in-service inspection of the same sample. The failure-time of such units is modeled with a two-parameter Weibull distribution indexed by scale and shape parameters β and δ, …