Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
Combining Sequence Analysis and Hidden Markov Models in the Analysis of Complex Life Sequence Data
2018
Life course data often consists of multiple parallel sequences, one for each life domain of interest. Multichannel sequence analysis has been used for computing pairwise dissimilarities and finding clusters in this type of multichannel (or multidimensional) sequence data. Describing and visualizing such data is, however, often challenging. We propose an approach for compressing, interpreting, and visualizing the information within multichannel sequences by finding (1) groups of similar trajectories and (2) similar phases within trajectories belonging to the same group. For these tasks we combine multichannel sequence analysis and hidden Markov modelling. We illustrate this approach with an …
Bayesian semiparametric long memory models for discretized event data
2020
We introduce a new class of semiparametric latent variable models for long memory discretized event data. The proposed methodology is motivated by a study of bird vocalizations in the Amazon rain forest; the timings of vocalizations exhibit self-similarity and long range dependence. This rules out Poisson process based models where the rate function itself is not long range dependent. The proposed class of FRActional Probit (FRAP) models is based on thresholding, a latent process. This latent process is modeled by a smooth Gaussian process and a fractional Brownian motion by assuming an additive structure. We develop a Bayesian approach to inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo and show g…
Unawareness, Priors and Posteriors
2008
Abstract. This note contains first thoughts on awareness of unawareness in a simple dynamic context where a decision situation is repeated over time. The main consequence of increasing awareness is that the model the decision maker uses, and the prior which it contains, becomes richer over time. The decision maker is prepared to this change, and we show that if a projection-consistency axiom is satisfied unawareness does not affect the value of her estimate of a payoff-relevant conditional probability (although it may weaken confidence in such estimate). Probability-zero events however pose a challenge to this axiom, and if that fails, even estimate values will be different if the decision …
Expectation Damages and Bilateral Cooperative Investments
2012
We examine the efficiency of the standard breach remedy expectation damages in a setting where the buyer invests cooperatively and the seller invests both cooperatively and selfishly. Contracts may specify a required quality level and an upper bound to the seller's coordination costs. We find that it is optimal to write an augmented Cadillac contract in which quality is stipulated such that it cannot be met with positive probability together with a very low price. Thus, the seller becomes a residual claimant and the coordination-cost threshold can be used to balance the incentives of the buyer.
Impact or No Impact for Women With Mild Knee Osteoarthritis: A Bayesian Meta‐Analysis of Two Randomized Controlled Trials With Contrasting Interventi…
2022
Objective We aim to predict the probability of a benefit from two contrasting exercise programs for a woman with a new diagnosis of mild knee osteoarthritis (OA). The short and long-term effects of aquatic resistance training (ART) and high-impact aerobic land training (HLT) compared with the control will be estimated. Methods Original data sets from two previously conducted randomised controlled trials (RCT) were combined and used in a Bayesian meta-analysis. Group differences in multiple response variables were estimated. Variables included cardiorespiratory fitness, dynamic maximum leg muscle power, maximal isometric knee extension and flexion force, pain, other symptoms and quality of l…
A Multivariate Age-Structured Stochastic Model with Immunization Strategies to Describe Bronchiolitis Dynamics
2021
Bronchiolitis has a high morbidity in children under 2 years old. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen causing the disease. At present, there is only a costly humanized monoclonal RSV-specific antibody to prevent RSV. However, different immunization strategies are being developed. Hence, evaluation and comparison of their impact is important for policymakers. The analysis of the disease with a Bayesian stochastic compartmental model provided an improved and more natural description of its dynamics. However, the consideration of different age groups is still needed, since disease transmission greatly varies with age. In this work, we propose a multivariate age-struct…
Analysis of cardiac and pulmonary complication probabilities after radiation therapy for patients with early-stage breast cancer
2009
Objective. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the radiobiological implications of clinical use of respiratory-gated techniques for postoperative radiation therapy of early-stage left-sided breast cancer after breast-conserving surgery. Material and methods. Radiation therapy treatment plans of 80 patients with early-stage breast cancer (stage I–II), receiving whole breast irradiation after breast-conserving therapy, were analyzed. The control group consisting of 47 patients received standard radiation therapy, and the respiratory-gated group consisting of 33 patients received deep inspiration-gated radiation therapy. Normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCP) for cardiac mortali…
Diagnosis and Treatment of Lower Extremity Venous Thromboembolism
2020
Importance: Incidence rates for lower extremity deep vein thrombosis (DVT) range from 88 to 112 per 100 000 person-years and increase with age. Rates of recurrent VTE range from 20% to 36% during the 10 years after an initial event.Observations: PubMed and Cochrane databases were searched for English-language studies published from January 2015 through June 2020 for randomized clinical trials, meta-analyses, systematic reviews, and observational studies. Risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE), such as older age, malignancy (cumulative incidence of 7.4% after a median of 19 months), inflammatory disorders (VTE risk is 4.7% in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and 2.5% in those withou…
Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity screening with a new iPad application
2016
We present a new iPad application (app) for a fast assessment of Visual Acuity (VA) and Contrast Sensitivity (CS) whose reliability and agreement was evaluated versus a commercial screening device (Optec 6500). The measurement of VA was programmed in the app in accordance with the Amblyopia Treatment Study protocol. The CS was measured with sinusoidal gratings of four different spatial frequencies: 3, 6, 12 and 18 cpd at the same contrast values of the Functional Acuity Contrast Test (FACT) included in the Optec 6500. Forty-five healthy subjects with monocular corrected visual acuities better than 0.2 logMAR participated in the agreement study. Bland-Altman analyses were performed to assess…
Event-related potentials to unattended changes in facial expressions: detection of regularity violations or encoding of emotions?
2013
Visual mismatch negativity (vMMN), a component in event-related potentials (ERPs), can be elicited when rarely presented “deviant” facial expressions violate regularity formed by repeated “standard” faces. vMMN is observed as differential ERPs elicited between the deviant and standard faces. It is not clear, however, whether differential ERPs to rare emotional faces interspersed with repeated neutral ones reflect true vMMN (i.e., detection of regularity violation) or merely encoding of the emotional content in the faces. Furthermore, a face-sensitive N170 response, which reflects structural encoding of facial features, can be modulated by emotional expressions. Owing to its similar latency …