Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
QUANTITATIVE CONVERGENCE RATES FOR SUBGEOMETRIC MARKOV CHAINS
2015
We provide explicit expressions for the constants involved in the characterisation of ergodicity of subgeometric Markov chains. The constants are determined in terms of those appearing in the assumed drift and one-step minorisation conditions. The results are fundamental for the study of some algorithms where uniform bounds for these constants are needed for a family of Markov kernels. Our results accommodate also some classes of inhomogeneous chains.
Transitive Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities
2015
We study probabilistically informative (weak) versions of transitivity by using suitable definitions of defaults and negated defaults in the setting of coherence and imprecise probabilities. We represent \(\text{ p-consistent }\) sequences of defaults and/or negated defaults by g-coherent imprecise probability assessments on the respective sequences of conditional events. Finally, we present the coherent probability propagation rules for Weak Transitivity and the validity of selected inference patterns by proving p-entailment of the associated knowledge bases.
Three-page encoding and complexity theory for spatial graphs
2004
We construct a series of finitely presented semigroups. The centers of these semigroups encode uniquely up to rigid ambient isotopy in 3-space all non-oriented spatial graphs. This encoding is obtained by using three-page embeddings of graphs into the product of the line with the cone on three points. By exploiting three-page embeddings we introduce the notion of the three-page complexity for spatial graphs. This complexity satisfies the properties of finiteness and additivity under natural operations.
Weighted norm inequalities in a bounded domain by the sparse domination method
2019
AbstractWe prove a local two-weight Poincaré inequality for cubes using the sparse domination method that has been influential in harmonic analysis. The proof involves a localized version of the Fefferman–Stein inequality for the sharp maximal function. By establishing a local-to-global result in a bounded domain satisfying a Boman chain condition, we show a two-weight p-Poincaré inequality in such domains. As an application we show that certain nonnegative supersolutions of the p-Laplace equation and distance weights are p-admissible in a bounded domain, in the sense that they support versions of the p-Poincaré inequality.
Exponential inequalities and estimation of conditional probabilities
2006
This paper deals with the problems of typicality and conditional typicality of “empirical probabilities” for stochastic process and the estimation of potential functions for Gibbs measures and dynamical systems. The questions of typicality have been studied in [FKT88] for independent sequences, in [BRY98, Ris89] for Markov chains. In order to prove the consistency of estimators of transition probability for Markov chains of unknown order, results on typicality and conditional typicality for some (Ψ)-mixing process where obtained in [CsS, Csi02]. Unfortunately, lots of natural mixing process do not satisfy this Ψ -mixing condition (see [DP05]). We consider a class of mixing process inspired …
Air conditioning and heat-related mortality: a multi-country longitudinal study
2020
Background: Air conditioning has been proposed as one of the key factors explaining reductions of heat-related mortality risks observed in the last decades. However, direct evidence is still limited. Methods: We used a multi-country, multi-city, longitudinal design to quantify the independent role of air conditioning in reported attenuation in risk. We collected daily time series of mortality, mean temperature, and yearly air conditioning prevalence for 311 locations in Canada, Japan, Spain, and the USA between 1972 and 2009. For each city and sub-period, we fitted a quasi-Poisson regression combined with distributed lag non-linear models to estimate summer-only temperature–mortality associ…
The red tooth hypothesis: A computational model of predator-prey relations, protean escape behavior and sexual reproduction
2009
This paper presents an extension of the Red Queen Hypothesis (hereafter, RQH) that we call the Red Tooth Hypothesis (RTH). This hypothesis suggests that predator-prey relations may play a role in the maintenance of sexual reproduction in many higher animals. RTH is based on an interaction between learning on the part of predators and evolution on the part of prey. We present a simple predator-prey computer simulation that illustrates the effects of this interaction. This simulation suggests that the optimal escape strategy from the prey's standpoint would be to have a small number of highly reflexive, largely innate (and, therefore, very fast) escape patterns, but that would also be unlearn…
Assessing fat-tailed sequential forecast distributions for the Dow-Jones index with logarithmic scoring rules
2007
We use the logarithmic scoring rule for distributions to assess a variety of fat-tailed sequential forecasting distributions for the Dow-Jones industrial stock index from 1980 to the present. The methodology applies Bruno de Finetti''s contributions to understanding how to compare the quality of different coherent forecasting distributions for the same sequence of observations, using proper scoring rules. Four different forms of forecasting distributions are compared: a mixture Normal, a mixture of convex combinations of three Normal distributions, a mixture exponential power distribution, and a mixture of a convex combination of three exponential power distributions. The mixture linear com…
Hub-Centered Gene Network Reconstruction Using Automatic Relevance Determination
2012
Network inference deals with the reconstruction of biological networks from experimental data. A variety of different reverse engineering techniques are available; they differ in the underlying assumptions and mathematical models used. One common problem for all approaches stems from the complexity of the task, due to the combinatorial explosion of different network topologies for increasing network size. To handle this problem, constraints are frequently used, for example on the node degree, number of edges, or constraints on regulation functions between network components. We propose to exploit topological considerations in the inference of gene regulatory networks. Such systems are often…
On the classification of dynamical data streams using novel “Anti-Bayesian” techniques
2018
Abstract The classification of dynamical data streams is among the most complex problems encountered in classification. This is, firstly, because the distribution of the data streams is non-stationary, and it changes without any prior “warning”. Secondly, the manner in which it changes is also unknown. Thirdly, and more interestingly, the model operates with the assumption that the correct classes of previously-classified patterns become available at a juncture after their appearance. This paper pioneers the use of unreported novel schemes that can classify such dynamical data streams by invoking the recently-introduced “Anti-Bayesian” (AB) techniques. Contrary to the Bayesian paradigm, tha…