Search results for " Probability"

Uncertainty related to climate change in the assessment of the DDF curve parameters

2017

In the context of climate change, the evaluation of the parameters of Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves has become a critical issue. Neglecting future rainfall variations could result in an overestimation/underestimation of DDF parameters and, consequently, of the design storm. In this study, uncertainty analysis was integrated into trend analysis to provide an estimate of trends that cannot actually be rigorously verified. A Bayesian procedure was suggested for the updating of DDF curve parameters and to evaluate the uncertainty related to their assessment. The proposed procedure also allowed identification of the years of a series that contributed most to the overall uncertainty relat…

Bayesian inference analysis of the uncertainty linked to the evaluation of potential flood damage in urban areas.

2012

Flood damage in urbanized watersheds may be assessed by combining the flood depth–damage curves and the outputs of urban flood models. The complexity of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited amount of data available for model calibration may lead to high uncertainty in the model results and consequently in damage estimation. Moreover depth–damage functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the regression law that is used. The present paper carries out the analysis of the uncertainty connected to the flood damage estimate obtained combining the use of hydraulic models and depth–damage curve…

Spatial pattern analysis using hybrid models: an application to the Hellenic seismicity

2016

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters and the spatial distribution of their epi- centres generally shows diverse interaction structures at different spatial scales. In this paper, we use a multi-scale point pattern model to describe the main seismicity in the Hellenic area over the last 10 years. We analyze the interaction between events and the relationship with geo- logical information of the study area, using hybrid models as proposed by Baddeley et al. ( 2013 ). In our analysis, we find two competing suitable hybrid models, one with a full parametric structure and the other one based on nonpara- metric kernel estimators for the spatial inhomogeneity.

Risk assessment of land degradation (RALDE) model

2021

Epigenomic k-mer dictionaries: shedding light on how sequence composition influences in vivo nucleosome positioning

2014

Abstract Motivation: Information-theoretic and compositional analysis of biological sequences, in terms of k-mer dictionaries, has a well established role in genomic and proteomic studies. Much less so in epigenomics, although the role of k-mers in chromatin organization and nucleosome positioning is particularly relevant. Fundamental questions concerning the informational content and compositional structure of nucleosome favouring and disfavoring sequences with respect to their basic building blocks still remain open. Results: We present the first analysis on the role of k-mers in the composition of nucleosome enriched and depleted genomic regions (NER and NDR for short) that is: (i) exhau…

Nonparametric estimation of quantile versions of the Lorenz curve

2018

Bayesian two-stage regression with parametric heteroscedasticity

2008

In this paper, we expand Kleibergen and Zivot's (2003) Bayesian two-stage (B2S) model by allowing for unequal variances. Our choice for modeling heteroscedasticity is a fully Bayesian parametric approach. As an application, we present a cross-country Cobb–Douglas production function estimation.

CorCast: A Distributed Architecture for Bayesian Epidemic Nowcasting and its Application to District-Level SARS-CoV-2 Infection Numbers in Germany

2021

Timely information on current infection numbers during an epidemic is of crucial importance for decision makers in politics, medicine, and businesses. As information about local infection risk can guide public policy as well as individual behavior, such as the wearing of personal protective equipment or voluntary social distancing, statistical models providing such insights should be transparent and reproducible as well as accurate. Fulfilling these requirements is drastically complicated by the large amounts of data generated during exponential growth of infection numbers, and by the complexity of common inference pipelines. Here, we present CorCast – a stable and scalable distributed arch…

Past price “memory” in the housing market: testing the performance of different spatio-temporal specifications.

2017

ABSTRACTRecent methodological developments provide a way to incorporate the temporal dimension when accounting for spatial effects in hedonic pricing. Weight matrices should decompose the spatial effects into two distinct components: bidirectional contemporaneous spatial connections; and unidirectional spatio-temporal effects from past transactions. Our iterative estimation approach explicitly analyses the role of time in price determination. The results show that both spatio-temporal components should be included in model specification; past transaction information stops contributing to price determination after eight months; and limited temporal friction is exhibited within this period. T…

Why are viral genomes so fragile? The bottleneck hypothesis

2021

If they undergo new mutations at each replication cycle, why are RNA viral genomes so fragile, with most mutations being either strongly deleterious or lethal? Here we provide theoretical and numerical evidence for the hypothesis that genetic fragility is partly an evolutionary response to the multiple population bottlenecks experienced by viral populations at various stages of their life cycles. Modelling within-host viral populations as multi-type branching processes, we show that mutational fragility lowers the rate at which Muller’s ratchet clicks and increases the survival probability through multiple bottlenecks. In the context of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered epidemiolog…