Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
"Table 4" of "Spin asymmetries A(1) and structure functions g1 of the proton and the deuteron from polarized high energy muon scattering."
1998
The virtual photon deuteron asymmetries in smaller X an Q**2 bins. Errors are statistical only.
"Table 19" of "Measurement of the differential cross-sections of inclusive, prompt and non-prompt J/psi production in proton-proton collisions at sqr…
2013
Unweighted J/psi candidate yields in bins of $J/psi transverse momentum and rapidity. Uncertainties are statistical only.
"Table 2" of "Measurement of the cross-section for W boson production in association with b-jets in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 7 TeV with the ATLA…
2015
Breakdown of relative systematic uncertainties per jet multiplicity, and combined across jet bins.
Modelling the occurrence of rainy days under a typical Mediterranean climate
2014
The statistical inference of the alternation of wet and dry periods in daily rainfall records can be achieved through the modelling of inter-arrival time-series, IT, defined as the succession of times elapsed from a rainy day and the one immediately preceding it. In this paper, under the hypothesis that ITs are independent and identically distributed random variables, a modelling framework based on a generalisation of the commonly adopted Bernoulli process is introduced. Within this framework, the capability of three discrete distributions, belonging to the Hurwitz–Lerch-Zeta family, to reproduce the main statistical features of IT time-series was tested. These distributions namely Lerch-se…
Horizontal visibility graphs: exact results for random time series
2009
The visibility algorithm has been recently introduced as a mapping between time series and complex networks. This procedure allows us to apply methods of complex network theory for characterizing time series. In this work we present the horizontal visibility algorithm, a geometrically simpler and analytically solvable version of our former algorithm, focusing on the mapping of random series (series of independent identically distributed random variables). After presenting some properties of the algorithm, we present exact results on the topological properties of graphs associated with random series, namely, the degree distribution, the clustering coefficient, and the mean path length. We sh…
Almost sure rates of mixing for i.i.d. unimodal maps
2002
International audience; It has been known since the pioneering work of Jakobson and subsequent work by Benedicks and Carleson and others that a positive measure set of quadratic maps admit an absolutely continuous invariant measure. Young and Keller-Nowicki proved exponential decay of its correlation functions. Benedicks and Young, and Baladi and Viana studied stability of the density and exponential rate of decay of the Markov chain associated to i.i.d. small perturbations. The almost sure statistical properties of the sample stationary measures of i.i.d. itineraries are more difficult to estimate than the "averaged statistics". Adapting to random systems, on the one hand partitions associ…
The Sustainability Factor: How Much Do Pension Expenditures Improve in Spain?
2020
The reform of 2013 represented a qualitative leap in the reform of the Spanish pension system. Unlike its predecessors, it introduced two automatic resetting mechanisms similar to those of other European countries. The first is the sustainability factor, scheduled to come into effect in 2019 but delayed until 2023, and its ultimate reversal cannot be ruled out. The objective of this study was to quantify the savings, or the lowest expenditure, that can be achieved in the Spanish public contributory pension system by applying it. These savings are measured in terms of cash&mdash
A new index for measuring seasonality: A transportation cost approach
2017
Abstract Seasonal fluctuations characterize many natural and social phenomena. Although the causes and impacts of seasonality are generally well documented in different study contexts, and many methods for isolating the seasonal component have been developed, considerably less attention has been paid to the measurement of the degree of seasonality. After reviewing the main indices used for measuring seasonality in different study contexts, we will propose a new approach in which seasonality is evaluated on the basis of the solution of a transportation problem. By considering the interdisciplinary nature of seasonal phenomena, the topic of measuring seasonality merits attention from a wide v…
Probabilistic inferences from conjoined to iterated conditionals
2017
Abstract There is wide support in logic, philosophy, and psychology for the hypothesis that the probability of the indicative conditional of natural language, P ( if A then B ) , is the conditional probability of B given A, P ( B | A ) . We identify a conditional which is such that P ( if A then B ) = P ( B | A ) with de Finetti's conditional event, B | A . An objection to making this identification in the past was that it appeared unclear how to form compounds and iterations of conditional events. In this paper, we illustrate how to overcome this objection with a probabilistic analysis, based on coherence, of these compounds and iterations. We interpret the compounds and iterations as cond…
A Naïve Sticky Information Model of Households’ Inflation Expectations
2009
This paper provides a simple epidemiology model where households, when forming their inflation expectations, rationally adopt the past release of inflation with certain probability rather than the forward-looking newspaper forecast as suggested in Carroll [2003, Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 269-298]. The posterior model probabilities based on the Michigan survey data strongly support the proposed model. We also extend the agent-based epidemiology model by deriving for it a simple adaptation, which is suitable for estimation. Our results show that this model is able to capture the heterogeneity in households’ expe…