Search results for " Probability"
showing 10 items of 2176 documents
A Bayesian Learning Automaton for Solving Two-Armed Bernoulli Bandit Problems
2008
The two-armed Bernoulli bandit (TABB) problem is a classical optimization problem where an agent sequentially pulls one of two arms attached to a gambling machine, with each pull resulting either in a reward or a penalty. The reward probabilities of each arm are unknown, and thus one must balance between exploiting existing knowledge about the arms, and obtaining new information. In the last decades, several computationally efficient algorithms for tackling this problem have emerged, with learning automata (LA) being known for their ?-optimality, and confidence interval based for logarithmically growing regret. Applications include treatment selection in clinical trials, route selection in …
Comparing Boosting and Bagging for Decision Trees of Rankings
2021
AbstractDecision tree learning is among the most popular and most traditional families of machine learning algorithms. While these techniques excel in being quite intuitive and interpretable, they also suffer from instability: small perturbations in the training data may result in big changes in the predictions. The so-called ensemble methods combine the output of multiple trees, which makes the decision more reliable and stable. They have been primarily applied to numeric prediction problems and to classification tasks. In the last years, some attempts to extend the ensemble methods to ordinal data can be found in the literature, but no concrete methodology has been provided for preference…
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Choosing the Remediation Method for a Landfill Based on Mixed Ordinal and Cardinal Information
2009
We describe a real-life application of a multicriteria method in the context of remediating a landfill in Finland. The landfill was used for dumping industrial waste during the years 1950 to 1965. During that time many harmful chemicals were stored in landfills among other waste. Therefore, this—and possibly several other—landfills have to be remediated. In this application, seven different remediation options were evaluated based on 13 criteria. For some criteria, cardinal measures with associated uncertainties were obtained. For other criteria, only ordinal (ranking) information was available. The problem was analyzed using the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis with Ordinal …
Correlation, hierarchies, and networks in financial markets
2010
We discuss some methods to quantitatively investigate the properties of correlation matrices. Correlation matrices play an important role in portfolio optimization and in several other quantitative descriptions of asset price dynamics in financial markets. Specifically, we discuss how to define and obtain hierarchical trees, correlation based trees and networks from a correlation matrix. The hierarchical clustering and other procedures performed on the correlation matrix to detect statistically reliable aspects of the correlation matrix are seen as filtering procedures of the correlation matrix. We also discuss a method to associate a hierarchically nested factor model to a hierarchical tre…
Probabilistic Fuzzy Approach to Evaluation of Logistics Service Effectiveness
2014
Received: 9 September 2014 Abstract Accepted: 11 October 2014 Logistics service providers offer a whole or partial logistics business service over a certain time period. Between such companies, the effectiveness of specific logistics services can vary. Logistics service providers seek the effective performance of logistics service. The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach for the evaluation of logistics service effectiveness, along with a specific computer system implementing the proposed approach – a sophisticated inference system, an extension of the Mamdani probabilistic fuzzy system. The paper presents specific knowledge concerning the relationships between effectiveness i…
"Table 2" of "Measurement of the $\boldsymbol{W}$ boson production charge asymmetry in $\boldsymbol{p\bar{p}\rightarrow W+X \rightarrow e\nu +X}$ eve…
2014
Correlation coefficients between central values of asymmetry in different $|y_W|$ bins.
Reply to Holliday and Boslough et al.: Synchroneity of widespread Bayesian-modeled ages supports Younger Dryas impact hypothesis
2015
Holliday (1) rejects age-depth models for the Younger Dryas boundary layer (YDB) in Kennett et al. (2), claiming that they are incorrect for several reasons, including age reversals, high age uncertainties, and use of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. These same claims previously were presented in Meltzer et al. (3) and were discussed and refuted in Kennett et al. (2). These criticisms apply to nearly all dated archaeological and geological sequences, including the Odessa meteorite impact crater, where paradoxically, Holliday et al. (4) modeled an impact age using OSL dating (>70% of dates used) with large uncertainties (to >6,000 y) and age reversals (>40% of dates are revers…
M/M/1 queue in two alternating environments and its heavy traffic approximation
2018
We investigate an M/M/1 queue operating in two switching environments, where the switch is governed by a two-state time-homogeneous Markov chain. This model allows to describe a system that is subject to regular operating phases alternating with anomalous working phases or random repairing periods. We first obtain the steady-state distribution of the process in terms of a generalized mixture of two geometric distributions. In the special case when only one kind of switch is allowed, we analyze the transient distribution, and investigate the busy period problem. The analysis is also performed by means of a suitable heavy-traffic approximation which leads to a continuous random process. Its d…
Transportation-cost inequality on path spaces with uniform distance
2008
Abstract Let M be a complete Riemannian manifold and μ the distribution of the diffusion process generated by 1 2 ( Δ + Z ) where Z is a C 1 -vector field. When Ric − ∇ Z is bounded below and Z has, for instance, linear growth, the transportation-cost inequality with respect to the uniform distance is established for μ on the path space over M . A simple example is given to show the optimality of the condition.
Patterns of poverty among elderly Americans: a Latent Class Markov Model
2017
ABSTRACTThis article studies poverty persistence and the role of social security programmes on poverty among elderly in the US. We use a Latent Markov model to disentangle unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. Because of its dynamic nature, unobserved heterogeneity is modelled to vary over time. This allows to capture different latent states of poverty that change over time. Result indicates the existence of three unobserved types evolving over time according to their propensity to be poor. Moreover, a strong persistence in poverty especially for women, individuals living alone and ethnic minorities is found. Finally, the estimates indicate that giving social assistance tends to re…