Search results for " Regression"
showing 10 items of 1835 documents
A Comment on the Coefficient of Determination for Binary Responses
1992
Abstract Linear logistic or probit regression can be closely approximated by an unweighted least squares analysis of the regression linear in the conditional probabilities provided that these probabilities for success and failure are not too extreme. It is shown how this restriction on the probabilities translates into a restriction on the range of the coefficient of determination R 2 so that, as a consequence, R 2 is not suitable to judge the effectiveness of linear regressions with binary responses even if an important relation is present.
Parametric estimation of non-crossing quantile functions
2021
Quantile regression (QR) has gained popularity during the last decades, and is now considered a standard method by applied statisticians and practitioners in various fields. In this work, we applied QR to investigate climate change by analysing historical temperatures in the Arctic Circle. This approach proved very flexible and allowed to investigate the tails of the distribution, that correspond to extreme events. The presence of quantile crossing, however, prevented using the fitted model for prediction and extrapolation. In search of a possible solution, we first considered a different version of QR, in which the QR coefficients were described by parametric functions. This alleviated th…
Migration and students' performance: detecting geographical differences following a curves clustering approach
2020
Students’ migration mobility is the new form of migration: students migrate to improve their skills and become more valued for the job market. The data regard the migration of Italian Bachelors who enrolled at Master Degree level, moving typically from poor to rich areas. This paper investigates the migration and other possible determinants on the Master Degree students’ performance. The Clustering of Effects approach for Quantile Regression Coefficients Modelling has been used to cluster the effects of some variables on the students’ performance for three Italian macro-areas. Results show evidence of similarity between Southern and Centre students, with respect to the Northern ones.
Modeling temperature effects on mortality: multiple segmented relationships with common break points.
2008
We present a model for estimation of temperature effects on mortality that is able to capture jointly the typical features of every temperature-death relationship, that is, nonlinearity and delayed effect of cold and heat over a few days. Using a segmented approximation along with a doubly penalized spline-based distributed lag parameterization, estimates and relevant standard errors of the cold- and heat-related risks and the heat tolerance are provided. The model is applied to data from Milano, Italy.
Analyzing Temperature Effects on Mortality Within theREnvironment: The Constrained Segmented Distributed Lag Parameterization
2010
Here we present and discuss the R package modTempEff including a set of functions aimed at modelling temperature effects on mortality with time series data. The functions fit a particular log linear model which allows to capture the two main features of mortality- temperature relationships: nonlinearity and distributed lag effect. Penalized splines and segmented regression constitute the core of the modelling framework. We briefly review the model and illustrate the functions throughout a simulated dataset.
Delay in claim settlement and ruin probability approximations
1995
We introduce a general risk model for portfolios with delayed claims which is a natural extension of the classical Poisson model. We investigate ruin problems for different premium principles and provide approximations for the ruin probability. We conclude with some specific models, for example, for IBNR portfolios and portfolios where the pay-off process depends on the claim size.
A spatially filtered mixture of β-convergence regressions for EU regions, 1980–2002
2007
Assessing regional growth and convergence across Europe is a matter of primary relevance. Empirical models that do not account for structural heterogeneities and spatial effects may face serious misspecification problems. In this work, a mixture regression approach is applied to the beta-convergence model, in order to produce an endogenous selection of regional growth patterns. A priori choices, such as North-South or centre-periphery divisions, are avoided. In addition to this, we deal with the spatial dependence existing in the data, applying a local filter to the data. The results indicate that spatial effects matter, and either absolute, conditional, or club convergence, if extended to …
Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks
2015
Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epide…
Prospective analysis of infectious disease surveillance data using syndromic information.
2014
In this paper, we describe a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model for the prospective analysis of data for infectious diseases. The proposed model consists of two components. The first component describes the behavior of disease during nonepidemic periods and the second component represents the increase in disease counts due to the presence of an epidemic. A novelty of our model formulation is that the parameters describing the spread of epidemics are allowed to vary in both space and time. We also show how syndromic information can be incorporated into the model to provide a better description of the data and more accurate one-step-ahead forecasts. These real-time forecasts can be used to …
Estimates of Regression Coefficients Based on the Sign Covariance Matrix
2002
SummaryA new estimator of the regression parameters is introduced in a multivariate multiple-regression model in which both the vector of explanatory variables and the vector of response variables are assumed to be random. The affine equivariant estimate matrix is constructed using the sign covariance matrix (SCM) where the sign concept is based on Oja's criterion function. The influence function and asymptotic theory are developed to consider robustness and limiting efficiencies of the SCM regression estimate. The estimate is shown to be consistent with a limiting multinormal distribution. The influence function, as a function of the length of the contamination vector, is shown to be linea…