Search results for " Sampling"

showing 10 items of 375 documents

MCMC methods to approximate conditional predictive distributions

2006

Sampling from conditional distributions is a problem often encountered in statistics when inferences are based on conditional distributions which are not of closed-form. Several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to simulate from them are proposed. Potential problems are pointed out and some suitable modifications are suggested. Approximations based on conditioning sets are also explored. The issues are illustrated within a specific statistical tool for Bayesian model checking, and compared in an example. An example in frequentist conditional testing is also given.

Statistics and ProbabilityMarkov chainApplied MathematicsMarkov chain Monte CarloConditional probability distributionBayesian inferenceComputational Mathematicssymbols.namesakeMetropolis–Hastings algorithmComputational Theory and MathematicsSampling distributionFrequentist inferencesymbolsEconometricsAlgorithmMathematicsGibbs samplingComputational Statistics & Data Analysis
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Adaptive Metropolis algorithm using variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter

2013

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are powerful computational tools for analysis of complex statistical problems. However, their computational efficiency is highly dependent on the chosen proposal distribution, which is generally difficult to find. One way to solve this problem is to use adaptive MCMC algorithms which automatically tune the statistics of a proposal distribution during the MCMC run. A new adaptive MCMC algorithm, called the variational Bayesian adaptive Metropolis (VBAM) algorithm, is developed. The VBAM algorithm updates the proposal covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter (VB-AKF). A strong law of large numbers for the VBAM algorithm is…

Statistics and ProbabilityMathematical optimizationCovariance matrixApplied MathematicsBayesian probabilityRejection samplingMathematics - Statistics TheoryMarkov chain Monte CarloStatistics Theory (math.ST)Kalman filterStatistics::ComputationComputational Mathematicssymbols.namesakeComputingMethodologies_PATTERNRECOGNITIONMetropolis–Hastings algorithmComputational Theory and MathematicsConvergence (routing)FOS: MathematicsKernel adaptive filtersymbolsMathematicsComputational Statistics & Data Analysis
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Bayesian Smoothing in the Estimation of the Pair Potential Function of Gibbs Point Processes

1999

A flexible Bayesian method is suggested for the pair potential estimation with a high-dimensional parameter space. The method is based on a Bayesian smoothing technique, commonly applied in statistical image analysis. For the calculation of the posterior mode estimator a new Monte Carlo algorithm is developed. The method is illustrated through examples with both real and simulated data, and its extension into truly nonparametric pair potential estimation is discussed.

Statistics and ProbabilityMathematical optimizationposterior mode estimatorMarkov chain Monte Carlo methodsMonte Carlo methodBayesian probabilityRejection samplingEstimatorMarkov chain Monte CarloBayesian smoothingGibbs processesHybrid Monte Carlosymbols.namesakeMarquardt algorithmsymbolspair potential functionPair potentialAlgorithmMathematicsGibbs samplingBernoulli
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Uniform convergence and asymptotic confidence bands for model-assisted estimators of the mean of sampled functional data

2013

When the study variable is functional and storage capacities are limited or transmission costs are high, selecting with survey sampling techniques a small fraction of the observations is an interesting alternative to signal compression techniques, particularly when the goal is the estimation of simple quantities such as means or totals. We extend, in this functional framework, model-assisted estimators with linear regression models that can take account of auxiliary variables whose totals over the population are known. We first show, under weak hypotheses on the sampling design and the regularity of the trajectories, that the estimator of the mean function as well as its variance estimator …

Statistics and ProbabilityMean squared errorMathematics - Statistics TheoryStatistics Theory (math.ST)Hájek estimator62D05; 62E20 62M9901 natural sciences010104 statistics & probabilityMinimum-variance unbiased estimatorBias of an estimator[MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST]60F050502 economics and businessStatisticsConsistent estimatorFOS: Mathematicscovariance functionHorvitz-Thompson estimator[ MATH.MATH-ST ] Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST]62L200101 mathematicssurvey sampling050205 econometrics Variance functionMathematicsGREG05 social sciencesEstimator[STAT.TH]Statistics [stat]/Statistics Theory [stat.TH]calibration[ STAT.TH ] Statistics [stat]/Statistics Theory [stat.TH]linear interpolation.linear interpolationEfficient estimatorStatistics Probability and Uncertaintyfunctional linear modelInvariant estimator
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Uniform ergodicity of the iterated conditional SMC and geometric ergodicity of particle Gibbs samplers

2018

We establish quantitative bounds for rates of convergence and asymptotic variances for iterated conditional sequential Monte Carlo (i-cSMC) Markov chains and associated particle Gibbs samplers. Our main findings are that the essential boundedness of potential functions associated with the i-cSMC algorithm provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the uniform ergodicity of the i-cSMC Markov chain, as well as quantitative bounds on its (uniformly geometric) rate of convergence. Furthermore, we show that the i-cSMC Markov chain cannot even be geometrically ergodic if this essential boundedness does not hold in many applications of interest. Our sufficiency and quantitative bounds rely on…

Statistics and ProbabilityMetropoliswithin-Gibbsgeometric ergodicity01 natural sciencesCombinatorics010104 statistics & probabilitysymbols.namesakeFOS: MathematicsMetropolis-within-GibbsApplied mathematicsErgodic theory0101 mathematicsGibbs measureQAMathematics65C40 (Primary) 60J05 65C05 (Secondary)Particle GibbsMarkov chainGeometric ergodicity010102 general mathematicsErgodicityuniform ergodicityProbability (math.PR)iterated conditional sequential Monte CarloMarkov chain Monte CarloIterated conditional sequential Monte CarloRate of convergencesymbolsUniform ergodicityparticle GibbsParticle filterMathematics - ProbabilityGibbs sampling
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Lattices and dual lattices in optimal experimental design for Fourier models

1998

Number-theoretic lattices, used in integration theory, are studied from the viewpoint of the design and analysis of experiments. For certain Fourier regression models lattices are optimal as experimental designs because they produce orthogonal information matrices. When the Fourier model is restricted, that is a special subset of the full factorial (cross-spectral) model is used, there is a difficult inversion problem to find generators for an optimal design for the given model. Asymptotic results are derived for certain models as the dimension of the space goes to infinity. These can be thought of as a complexity theory connecting designs and models or as special type of Nyquist sampling t…

Statistics and ProbabilityOptimal designDiscrete mathematicsFactorialApplied MathematicsDesign of experimentsInversion (meteorology)Regression analysisComputational Mathematicssymbols.namesakeFourier transformComputational Theory and MathematicsLattice (order)symbolsApplied mathematicsNyquist–Shannon sampling theoremMathematicsComputational Statistics & Data Analysis
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On the stability and ergodicity of adaptive scaling Metropolis algorithms

2011

The stability and ergodicity properties of two adaptive random walk Metropolis algorithms are considered. The both algorithms adjust the scaling of the proposal distribution continuously based on the observed acceptance probability. Unlike the previously proposed forms of the algorithms, the adapted scaling parameter is not constrained within a predefined compact interval. The first algorithm is based on scale adaptation only, while the second one incorporates also covariance adaptation. A strong law of large numbers is shown to hold assuming that the target density is smooth enough and has either compact support or super-exponentially decaying tails.

Statistics and ProbabilityStochastic approximationMathematics - Statistics TheoryStatistics Theory (math.ST)Law of large numbersMultiple-try Metropolis01 natural sciencesStability (probability)010104 statistics & probabilityModelling and Simulation65C40 60J27 93E15 93E35Adaptive Markov chain Monte CarloFOS: Mathematics0101 mathematicsScalingMetropolis algorithmMathematicsta112Applied Mathematics010102 general mathematicsRejection samplingErgodicityProbability (math.PR)ta111CovarianceRandom walkMetropolis–Hastings algorithmModeling and SimulationAlgorithmStabilityMathematics - ProbabilityStochastic Processes and their Applications
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Asymptotic efficiency of the calibration estimator in a high-dimensional data setting

2022

Abstract In a finite population sampling survey, auxiliary information is commonly used to improve the Horvitz-Thompson estimators and calibration has been extensively used by national statistical agencies over the last decades for that purpose. This method enables to make estimators consistent with known totals of auxiliary variables and to reduce variance if the calibration variables are explanatory for the variable of interest. Nowadays, it is not unusual anymore to have high-dimensional auxiliary data sets and adding too much additional calibration variables may increase the variance of calibration estimators. We study in this paper the asymptotic efficiency of the calibration estimator…

Statistics and ProbabilityVariance inflation factorAuxiliary variablesVariable (computer science)Calibration (statistics)Applied MathematicsStatisticsEstimatorVariance (accounting)Statistics Probability and UncertaintyPopulation samplingMathematicsJournal of Statistical Planning and Inference
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Estimation of total electricity consumption curves by sampling in a finite population when some trajectories are partially unobserved

2019

International audience; Millions of smart meters that are able to collect individual load curves, that is, electricity consumption time series, of residential and business customers at fine scale time grids are now deployed by electricity companies all around the world. It may be complex and costly to transmit and exploit such a large quantity of information, therefore it can be relevant to use survey sampling techniques to estimate mean load curves of specific groups of customers. Data collection, like every mass process, may undergo technical problems at every point of the metering and collection chain resulting in missing values. We consider imputation approaches (linear interpolation, k…

Statistics and Probabilityconstructionkernel smoothingPopulationSurvey samplingimputation01 natural sciences010104 statistics & probability[MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST]0502 economics and businessStatisticsImputation (statistics)0101 mathematicseducationsurvey samplingfunctional data050205 econometrics Mathematicsconfidence bandsConsumption (economics)Estimationeducation.field_of_studymissing completely at randombusiness.industry05 social sciencesprincipal analysis by conditional estimationSampling (statistics)[MATH.MATH-PR]Mathematics [math]/Probability [math.PR]nearest neighboursKernel smoothervariance-estimationElectricityStatistics Probability and Uncertaintybusinessvariance approximation
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A Bayesian comparison of cluster, strata, and random samples

1999

When sampling from finite populations, simple random sampling (SRS) is rarely used in practice, due to either high cost or information to be gained from more efficient designs. Bayesian hierarchical models are a natural framework to model the non-randomness in the sample. This paper concentrates on the effects that the design has on inference about characteristics of the finite population, and makes a critical comparison among some common designs.

Statistics and Probabilityeducation.field_of_studyApplied MathematicsBayesian probabilityPopulationSampling (statistics)Sample (statistics)Simple random sampleStratified samplingsymbols.namesakeStatisticssymbolsCluster samplingStatistics Probability and UncertaintyeducationMathematicsGibbs samplingJournal of Statistical Planning and Inference
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