Search results for " Sampling"

Using Complex Surveys to Estimate theL1-Median of a Functional Variable: Application to Electricity Load Curves

2012

Mean proles are widely used as indicators of the electricity consumption habits of customers. Currently, Electricit e De France (EDF), estimates class load proles by using point-wise mean function. Unfortunately, it is well known that the mean is highly sensitive to the presence of outliers, such as one or more consumers with unusually high-levels of consumption. In this paper, we propose an alternative to the mean prole: the L1-median prole which is more robust. When dealing with large datasets of functional data (load curves for example), survey sampling approaches are useful for estimating the median prole and avoid storing all of the data. We propose here estimators of the median trajec…

On implementation of the Gibbs sampler for estimating the accuracy of multiple diagnostic tests

2010

Implementation of the Gibbs sampler for estimating the accuracy of multiple binary diagnostic tests in one population has been investigated. This method, proposed by Joseph, Gyorkos and Coupal, makes use of a Bayesian approach and is used in the absence of a gold standard to estimate the prevalence, the sensitivity and specificity of medical diagnostic tests. The expressions that allow this method to be implemented for an arbitrary number of tests are given. By using the convergence diagnostics procedure of Raftery and Lewis, the relation between the number of iterations of Gibbs sampling and the precision of the estimated quantiles of the posterior distributions is derived. An example conc…

Bayesian Modeling of Sequential Discoveries

2022

We aim at modelling the appearance of distinct tags in a sequence of labelled objects. Common examples of this type of data include words in a corpus or distinct species in a sample. These sequential discoveries are often summarised via accumulation curves, which count the number of distinct entities observed in an increasingly large set of objects. We propose a novel Bayesian method for species sampling modelling by directly specifying the probability of a new discovery, therefore allowing for flexible specifications. The asymptotic behavior and finite sample properties of such an approach are extensively studied. Interestingly, our enlarged class of sequential processes includes highly tr…

Contributed discussion on article by Pratola

2016

The author should be commended for his outstanding contribution to the literature on Bayesian regression tree models. The author introduces three innovative sampling approaches which allow for efficient traversal of the model space. In this response, we add a fourth alternative.

Analysis of Educational Frequency Data from a Complex Sample Survey

1991

Abstract Some recent methods are presented for analyzing categorial data from complex surveys involving clustering familiar in educational research where e.g. teaching groups are used as sample clusters. The methods are introduced through a discussion of the test of independence on a two‐way table and the analysis of a two‐way table using logistic regression models. The analyses are illustrated using data from the First National Assessment of the Finnish Comprehensive School 1979. The primary focus of the paper is on the methods that provide first‐order corrections to standard multinomial‐based chi‐square tests by taking account of survey design effects. Both first‐ and second‐order correct…

Bayesian Estimation of Political Transition Matrices

1994

A decision framework is used to propose a procedure designed to estimate the reallocation of the vote of each individual party between two consecutive political elections, given the results of the elections, the information provided by a sample survey, and some assumptions on the hierarchical structure of the population.

Intraductal aspiration: a promising new tissue-sampling technique for the diagnosis of suspected malignant biliary strictures

2012

Brushing is the most commonly used technique for biliary sampling at ERCP, despite its limited sensitivity. To evaluate intraductal aspiration (IDA) as a new combined endoscopic technique for cytodiagnosis, its cellular adequacy, diagnostic accuracy for cancer detection, feasibility, and safety. Prospective, observational study. Single tertiary referral center. IDA cellular adequacy, diagnostic accuracy for cancer detection, feasibility, and safety. From April 2009 to September 2010, 42 consecutive patients with suspected malignant biliary stricture underwent ERCP, with tissue sampling obtained with IDA. IDA included performance of standard brushing in all patients. After standard brushing,…

Reaction coordinates and transition states in enzymatic catalysis

2017

Enzymatic reactions are complex chemical processes taking place in complex dynamic environments. Theoretical characterization of these reactions requires the determination of the reaction coordinate and the transition state ensemble. This is not an easy task because many degrees of freedom may be involved in principle. We present recent efforts to find good enzymatic reaction coordinates and the implications of these findings in the interpretation of enzymatic efficiency. In particular, we analyze different strategies based on the use of minimum free energy paths and direct localization of the dividing surface on multidimensional free energy surfaces. Another strategy is based on the genera…

A Successive Umbrella Sampling Algorithm to Sample and Overcome Free Energy Barriers

2006

Improving predictive accuracy of exit polls

2010

Abstract Exit polls are best known for their use in election forecasting. In recent years, however, some prominent mistaken predictions have been made, undermining public confidence in the accuracy of both exit polls and survey methods. Nonresponse bias has been claimed as being one of the main reasons for inaccurate projections. Traditionally, the issue has been handled through an age–race–sex adjustment at the national and state levels. An alternative solution is suggested and detailed in this paper. A two-step strategy is proposed to reduce nonresponse bias and improve predictions. First, “vote-remembering” (vote recall) is used to correct party proportion estimates at polling locations;…