Search results for " Stochastic process"
showing 10 items of 51 documents
Transfer Entropy Analysis of Pulse Arrival Time - Heart Period Interactions during Physiological Stress
2022
Although Heart Period (HP) variability is the most widely used measure to assess cardiovascular oscillations, its evaluation combined with that of Pulse Arrival Time (PAT) variability may provide additional information about cardiac dynamics and cardiovascular interactions. In this study, we computed the transfer entropy from PAT to HP in 76 subjects monitored at rest and during orthostatic and mental stress using both a model-free (k- Nearest Neighbors) and a linear parametric estimator. Our results show how the information flow between these two variables depends on the physiological condition and how the nonlinear measure captures more information than the linear one during orthostatic s…
Feasibility of Ultra-short Term Complexity Analysis of Heart Rate Variability in Resting State and During Orthostatic Stress
2022
In this work, we study ultra-short term (UST) complexity of Heart Rate Variability (HRV) and its agreement with analysis of standard short-term (ST) HRV recordings obtained at rest and during orthostatic stress. Conditional Entropy (CE) measures have been computed using both a linear Gaussian approximation and a more accurate model-free approach based on nearest neighbors. The agreement between UST and ST indices has been compared via statistical tests and correlation analysis, suggesting the feasibility of exploiting faster algorithms and shorter time series for detecting changes in cardiovascular control during various states.
Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets
2015
Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We introduce a Markov-switching modeling approach for price change, where the latent Markov process is the transition between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared returns to describe the dependence of the probability of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a Double Chain Markov Model. We show that the model describes the shape of return distribution at different time aggregations, volatility clustering, and the anomalo…
Estimating the decomposition of predictive information in multivariate systems
2015
In the study of complex systems from observed multivariate time series, insight into the evolution of one system may be under investigation, which can be explained by the information storage of the system and the information transfer from other interacting systems. We present a framework for the model-free estimation of information storage and information transfer computed as the terms composing the predictive information about the target of a multivariate dynamical process. The approach tackles the curse of dimensionality employing a nonuniform embedding scheme that selects progressively, among the past components of the multivariate process, only those that contribute most, in terms of co…
Stability of a stochastic SIR system
2005
Abstract We propose a stochastic SIR model with or without distributed time delay and we study the stability of disease-free equilibrium. The numerical simulation of the stochastic SIR model shows that the introduction of noise modifies the threshold of system for an epidemic to occur and the threshold stochastic value is found.
Stochastic model for the epitaxial growth of two-dimensional islands in the submonolayer regime
2016
The diffusion-based growth of islands composed of clusters of metal atoms on a substrate is considered in the aggregation regime. A stochastic approach is proposed to describe the dynamics of island growth based on a Langevin equation with multiplicative noise. The distribution of island sizes, obtained as a solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation, is derived. The time-dependence of island growth on its fractal dimension is analysed. The effect of mobility of the small islands on the growth of large islands is considered. Numerical simulations are in a good agreement with theoretical results.
Calibration of optimal execution of financial transactions in the presence of transient market impact
2012
Trading large volumes of a financial asset in order driven markets requires the use of algorithmic execution dividing the volume in many transactions in order to minimize costs due to market impact. A proper design of an optimal execution strategy strongly depends on a careful modeling of market impact, i.e. how the price reacts to trades. In this paper we consider a recently introduced market impact model (Bouchaud et al., 2004), which has the property of describing both the volume and the temporal dependence of price change due to trading. We show how this model can be used to describe price impact also in aggregated trade time or in real time. We then solve analytically and calibrate wit…
A new stochastic representation for the decay from a metastable state
2002
Abstract We show that a stochastic process on a complex plane can simulate decay from a metastable state. The simplest application of the method to a model in which the approach to equilibrium occurs through transitions over a potential barrier is discussed. The results are compared with direct numerical simulations of the stochastic differential equations describing system's evolution. We have found that the new method is much more efficient from computational point of view than the direct simulations.
Understanding the determinants of volatility clustering in terms of stationary Markovian processes
2016
Abstract Volatility is a key variable in the modeling of financial markets. The most striking feature of volatility is that it is a long-range correlated stochastic variable, i.e. its autocorrelation function decays like a power-law τ − β for large time lags. In the present work we investigate the determinants of such feature, starting from the empirical observation that the exponent β of a certain stock’s volatility is a linear function of the average correlation of such stock’s volatility with all other volatilities. We propose a simple approach consisting in diagonalizing the cross-correlation matrix of volatilities and investigating whether or not the diagonalized volatilities still kee…
Role of sub- and super-Poisson noise sources in population dynamics
2020
In this paper we present a study on pulse noise sources characterized by sub- and super-Poisson statistics. We make a comparison with their uncorrelated counterpart. i.e. pulse noise with Poisson statistics, while showing that the correlation properties of sub- and super-Poisson noise sources can be efficiently applied to population dynamics. Specifically, we consider a termite population, described by a Langevin equation in the presence of a pulse noise source, and we study its dynamics and stability properties for two models. The first one describes a population of several colonies in a new territory with adverse environmental conditions. The second one considers the development of a sing…