Search results for " Trade"

Short-Run Dynamics of the Trade Balance in the EMU-12 Countries

2016

During the pre-EMU period real effective exchange rate or domestic and foreign GDP per capita growth rate differential Granger-caused aggregate trade balance in most of the EMU-12 countries. However, our data-driven paper provides evidence that during the EMU period neither the growth differentials nor the CPI-based real effective exchange rates have Granger-caused the aggregate trade balances. When we decompose the aggregate trade balances into the intra balances (trade balance vis-a-vis the euro area) and the extra balances (trade balance vis-a-vis the rest of the world), we find that typically the change in the dynamics of the aggregate trade balance resulted from a change in the dynamic…

Noise traders and smart money: Evidence from online searches

2019

International audience; Traditional finance theory considers that the impact of noise traders' attention on asset prices is offset by attention from smart investors. This paper uses online search data to study the influence of noise traders and smart investors on stock returns and volatility. Adopting an original approach, we construct a proxy for smart investor attention based on investors' online search behavior provided by Wikipedia Page Traffic. We combine this new measure with a standard measure of noise traders' attention as proxied by Google Search Volume Index. We show for a sample of 87 French firms over the period 2008–2018 that only noise traders' attention influences stock retur…

Offshoring and Sequential Production Chains: A General-Equilibrium Analysis

2021

The Canadian journal of economics = Revue canadienne d'économique (2021). doi:10.1111/caje.12506

Regression with imputed covariates: A generalized missing-indicator approach

2011

A common problem in applied regression analysis is that covariate values may be missing for some observations but imputed values may be available. This situation generates a trade-off between bias and precision: the complete cases are often disarmingly few, but replacing the missing observations with the imputed values to gain precision may lead to bias. In this paper, we formalize this trade-off by showing that one can augment the regression model with a set of auxiliary variables so as to obtain, under weak assumptions about the imputations, the same unbiased estimator of the parameters of interest as complete-case analysis. Given this augmented model, the bias-precision trade-off may the…

Warning: Bilateral trade agreements do not create trade

2021

Norwegian-Polish Bilateral Trade Developments since 1990

2016

Using CHARM to Adjust for Cross-hauling: The Case of the Province of Hubei, China

2015

Data for the Chinese province of Hubei are used to assess the performance of Kronenberg's Cross-Hauling Adjusted Regionalization Method (CHARM), a method that takes explicit account of cross-hauling when constructing regional input–output tables. A key determinant of cross-hauling is held to be the heterogeneity of commodities, which is estimated using national data. However, contrary to the authors’ findings for Finland, CHARM does not generate reliable estimates of Hubei's sectoral exports, imports and volume of trade, although it is more successful in estimating sectoral supply multipliers. The poor simulations of regional trade are attributed to the fact that Hubei is a relatively small…

Are the determinants of CO2 emissions converging among OECD countries?

2013

This paper studies convergence in CO2emission intensity (CO2 emissions over GDP) among OECD countries over the period 1960-2008 based on its determinants, namely, energy intensity (energy consumption over GDP) and the so-called carbonisation index (CO2 emissions over energy consumption). We apply the Phillips and Sul (2007) methodology, which tests for the existence of convergence clubs. Our results highlight that differences in emission intensity convergence are more determined by differences in convergence of the carbonisation index rather than by differences in the dynamic convergence of energy intensity.

The Effect of Specialisation on Banks' Efficiency: An International Comparison

2006

Abstract This study analyses the effects of specialisation on the cost efficiency of a set of banking systems of the European Union over the period 1992–1998. Unlike in the established literature in which specialisation differences are not considered, in this paper cost inefficiencies are decomposed into two different components: the first is related to the inefficiency associated with the composition of specialisations in each banking system and the second is related to specific inefficiencies of banks within their specialisation. The results show the existence of high cost inefficiencies. However, the intra‐specialisation inefficiencies indicate that the inefficiencies of the European ban…

Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective

2014

Abstract This study examines the sensitivity of the Spanish stock market at the industry level to movements in oil prices over the period 1993–2010, paying special attention to the presence of endogenously determined structural changes in the relationship between oil price changes and industry equity returns. The empirical results show that the degree of oil price exposure of Spanish industries is rather limited, although significant differences are found across industries. The oil price sensitivity is very weak in the 1990s, a period of fairly stable and low oil prices. Instead, the link between crude oil and stock prices seems to have increased during the 2000s, becoming primarily positiv…