Search results for " Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 777 documents
Correcting for non-ignorable missingness in smoking trends
2015
Data missing not at random (MNAR) is a major challenge in survey sampling. We propose an approach based on registry data to deal with non-ignorable missingness in health examination surveys. The approach relies on follow-up data available from administrative registers several years after the survey. For illustration we use data on smoking prevalence in Finnish National FINRISK study conducted in 1972-1997. The data consist of measured survey information including missingness indicators, register-based background information and register-based time-to-disease survival data. The parameters of missingness mechanism are estimable with these data although the original survey data are MNAR. The u…
Conditionally heteroscedastic intensity-dependent marking of log Gaussian Cox processes
2009
Spatial marked point processes are models for systems of points which are randomly distributed in space and provided with measured quantities called marks. This study deals with marking, that is methods of constructing marked point processes from unmarked ones. The focus is density-dependent marking where the local point intensity affects the mark distribution. This study develops new markings for log Gaussian Cox processes. In these markings, both the mean and variance of the mark distribution depend on the local intensity. The mean, variance and mark correlation properties are presented for the new markings, and a Bayesian estimation procedure is suggested for statistical inference. The p…
Poisson Regression with Change-Point Prior in the Modelling of Disease Risk around a Point Source
2003
Bayesian estimation of the risk of a disease around a known point source of exposure is considered. The minimal requirements for data are that cases and populations at risk are known for a fixed set of concentric annuli around the point source, and each annulus has a uniquely defined distance from the source. The conventional Poisson likelihood is assumed for the counts of disease cases in each annular zone with zone-specific relative risk and parameters and, conditional on the risks, the counts are considered to be independent. The prior for the relative risk parameters is assumed to be piecewise constant at the distance having a known number of components. This prior is the well-known cha…
A Bayesian analysis of classical hypothesis testing
1980
The procedure of maximizing the missing information is applied to derive reference posterior probabilities for null hypotheses. The results shed further light on Lindley’s paradox and suggest that a Bayesian interpretation of classical hypothesis testing is possible by providing a one-to-one approximate relationship between significance levels and posterior probabilities.
Bayesian subcohort selection for longitudinal covariate measurements in follow‐up studies
2022
We propose an approach for the planning of longitudinal covariate measurements in follow-up studies where covariates are time-varying. We assume that the entire cohort cannot be selected for longitudinal measurements due to financial limitations, and study how a subset of the cohort should be selected optimally, in order to obtain precise estimates of covariate effects in a survival model. In our approach, the study will be designed sequentially utilizing the data collected in previous measurements of the individuals as prior information. We propose using a Bayesian optimality criterion in the subcohort selections, which is compared with simple random sampling using simulated and real follo…
What Bayesians Expect of Each Other
1991
Abstract Our goal is to study general properties of one Bayesian's subjective beliefs about the behavior of another Bayesian's subjective beliefs. We consider two Bayesians, A and B, who have different subjective distributions for a parameter θ, and study Bayesian A's expectation of Bayesian B's posterior distribution for θ given some data Y. We show that when θ can take only two values, Bayesian A always expects Bayesian B's posterior distribution to lie between the prior distributions of A and B. Conditions are given under which a similar result holds for an arbitrary real-valued parameter θ. For a vector parameter θ we present useful expressions for the mean vector and covariance matrix …
On first exit times and their means for Brownian bridges
2017
For a Brownian bridge from $0$ to $y$ we prove that the mean of the first exit time from interval $(-h,h), \,\, h>0,$ behaves as $O(h^2)$ when $h \downarrow 0.$ Similar behavior is seen to hold also for the 3-dimensional Bessel bridge. For Brownian bridge and 3-dimensional Bessel bridge this mean of the first exit time has a puzzling representation in terms of the Kolmogorov distribution. The result regarding the Brownian bridge is applied to prove in detail an estimate needed by Walsh to determine the convergence of the binomial tree scheme for European options.
A model-based approach to Spotify data analysis: a Beta GLMM
2020
Digital music distribution is increasingly powered by automated mechanisms that continuously capture, sort and analyze large amounts of Web-based data. This paper deals with the management of songs audio features from a statistical point of view. In particular, it explores the data catching mechanisms enabled by Spotify Web API and suggests statistical tools for the analysis of these data. Special attention is devoted to songs popularity and a Beta model, including random effects, is proposed in order to give the first answer to questions like: which are the determinants of popularity? The identification of a model able to describe this relationship, the determination within the set of char…
An alternative representation of Altham's multiplicative-binomial distribution
1998
Abstract Cox (1972) introduced a log-linear representation for the joint distribution of n binary-dependent responses. Altham (1978) derived the distribution of the sum of such responses, under a multiplicative, rather than log-linear, representation and called it multiplicative-binomial. We propose here an alternative form of the multiplicative-binomial, which is derived from the original Cox's representation and is characterized by intuitively meaningful parameters, and compare its first two moments with those of the standard binomial distribution.
Sparse Sampling and Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Boolean Models
1991
A condition for practical independence of contact distribution functions in Boolean models is obtained. This result allows the authors to use maximum likelihcod methods, via sparse sampling, for estimating unknown parameters of an isotropic Boolean model. The second part of this paper is devoted to a simulation study of the proposed method. AMS classification: 60D05