Search results for " Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 777 documents
Mass-flux-based outlet boundary conditions for the lattice Boltzmann method
2009
We present outlet boundary conditions for the lattice Boltzmann method. These boundary conditions are constructed with a mass-flux-based approach. Conceptually, the mass-flux-based approach provides a mathematical framework from which specific boundary conditions can be derived by enforcing given physical conditions. The object here is, in particular, to explain the mass-flux-based approach. Furthermore, we illustrate, transparently, how boundary conditions can be derived from the emerging mathematical framework. For this purpose, we derive and present explicitly three outlet boundary conditions. By construction, these boundary conditions have an apparent physical interpretation which is fu…
Componentwise adaptation for high dimensional MCMC
2005
We introduce a new adaptive MCMC algorithm, based on the traditional single component Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and on our earlier adaptive Metropolis algorithm (AM). In the new algorithm the adaption is performed component by component. The chain is no more Markovian, but it remains ergodic. The algorithm is demonstrated to work well in varying test cases up to 1000 dimensions.
Including covariates in a space-time point process with application to seismicity
2020
AbstractThe paper proposes a spatio-temporal process that improves the assessment of events in space and time, considering a contagion model (branching process) within a regression-like framework to take covariates into account. The proposed approach develops the forward likelihood for prediction method for estimating the ETAS model, including covariates in the model specification of the epidemic component. A simulation study is carried out for analysing the misspecification model effect under several scenarios. Also an application to the Italian seismic catalogue is reported, together with the reference to the developed R package.
Criteria for Bayesian model choice with application to variable selection
2012
In objective Bayesian model selection, no single criterion has emerged as dominant in defining objective prior distributions. Indeed, many criteria have been separately proposed and utilized to propose differing prior choices. We first formalize the most general and compelling of the various criteria that have been suggested, together with a new criterion. We then illustrate the potential of these criteria in determining objective model selection priors by considering their application to the problem of variable selection in normal linear models. This results in a new model selection objective prior with a number of compelling properties.
Exponential and bayesian conjugate families: Review and extensions
1997
The notion of a conjugate family of distributions plays a very important role in the Bayesian approach to parametric inference. One of the main features of such a family is that it is closed under sampling, but a conjugate family often provides prior distributions which are tractable in various other respects. This paper is concerned with the properties of conjugate families for exponential family models. Special attention is given to the class of natural exponential families having a quadratic variance function, for which the theory is particularly fruitful. Several classes of conjugate families have been considered in the literature and here we describe some of their most interesting feat…
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS WITH TAPERED DATA
1983
. A new method based on an upper bound for spectral windows is presented for investigating the cumulants of time series statistics. Using this method two classical results are proved for tapered data. In particular, the asymptotic normality for a class of spectral estimates including estimates for the spectral function and the covariance function is proved under integrability conditions on the spectra using the method of cumulants.
Quantile regression via iterative least squares computations
2012
We present an estimating framework for quantile regression where the usual L 1-norm objective function is replaced by its smooth parametric approximation. An exact path-following algorithm is derived, leading to the well-known ‘basic’ solutions interpolating exactly a number of observations equal to the number of parameters being estimated. We discuss briefly possible practical implications of the proposed approach, such as early stopping for large data sets, confidence intervals, and additional topics for future research.
Linear Recursive Equations, Covariance Selection, and Path Analysis
1980
Abstract By defining a reducible zero pattern and by using the concept of multiplicative models, we relate linear recursive equations that have been introduced by econometrician Herman Wold (1954) and path analysis as it was proposed by geneticist Sewall Wright (1923) to the statistical theory of covariance selection formulated by Arthur Dempster (1972). We show that a reducible zero pattern is the condition under which parameters as well as least squares estimates in recursive equations are one-to-one transformations of parameters and of maximum likelihood estimates, respectively, in a decomposable covariance selection model. As a consequence, (a) we can give a closed-form expression for t…
Robustifying principal component analysis with spatial sign vectors
2012
Abstract In this paper, we apply orthogonally equivariant spatial sign covariance matrices as well as their affine equivariant counterparts in principal component analysis. The influence functions and asymptotic covariance matrices of eigenvectors based on robust covariance estimators are derived in order to compare the robustness and efficiency properties. We show in particular that the estimators that use pairwise differences of the observed data have very good efficiency properties, providing practical robust alternatives to classical sample covariance matrix based methods.
Boolean Models: Maximum Likelihood Estimation from Circular Clumps
1990
This paper deals with the problem of making inferences on the maximum radius and the intensity of the Poisson point process associated to a Boolean Model of circular primary grains with uniformly distributed random radii. The only sample information used is observed radii of circular clumps (DUPAC, 1980). The behaviour of maximum likelihood estimation has been evaluated by means of Monte Carlo methods.