Search results for " Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 777 documents
Optimal Reporting of Predictions
1989
Abstract Consider a problem in which you and a group of other experts must report your individual predictive distributions for an observable random variable X to some decision maker. Suppose that the report of each expert is assigned a prior weight by the decision maker and that these weights are then updated based on the observed value of X. In this situation you will try to maximize your updated, or posterior, weight by appropriately choosing the distribution that you report, rather than necessarily simply reporting your honest predictive distribution. We study optimal reporting strategies under various conditions regarding your knowledge and beliefs about X and the reports of the other e…
Objective Priors for Discrete Parameter Spaces
2012
This article considers the development of objective prior distributions for discrete parameter spaces. Formal approaches to such development—such as the reference prior approach—often result in a constant prior for a discrete parameter, which is questionable for problems that exhibit certain types of structure. To take advantage of structure, this article proposes embedding the original problem in a continuous problem that preserves the structure, and then using standard reference prior theory to determine the appropriate objective prior. Four different possibilities for this embedding are explored, and applied to a population-size model, the hypergeometric distribution, the multivariate hy…
Calibration of optimal execution of financial transactions in the presence of transient market impact
2012
Trading large volumes of a financial asset in order driven markets requires the use of algorithmic execution dividing the volume in many transactions in order to minimize costs due to market impact. A proper design of an optimal execution strategy strongly depends on a careful modeling of market impact, i.e. how the price reacts to trades. In this paper we consider a recently introduced market impact model (Bouchaud et al., 2004), which has the property of describing both the volume and the temporal dependence of price change due to trading. We show how this model can be used to describe price impact also in aggregated trade time or in real time. We then solve analytically and calibrate wit…
Sequential estimation of a location parameter and powers of a scale parameter from delayed observations
2013
The problem of sequentially estimating a location parameter and powers of a scale parameter is considered in the case when the observations become available at random times. Certain classes of sequential estimation procedures are derived under an invariant balanced loss function and with the observation cost determined by a convex function of the stopping time and the number of observations up to that time.
Deriving Reference Decisions
1998
To solve a statistical decision problem from a Bayesian viewpoint, the decision maker must specify a probability distribution on the parameter space, his prior distribution. In order to analyze the influence of this prior distribution on the solution of the problem, Bernardo (1981) proposed to compare the results with those that one would obtain by using that prior distribution which maximizes the useful experimental information, thus introducing the concept of reference decision. This definition is too involved for most of the problems usually found in practice. Here we analyze situations in which it is possible to simplify the definition of the reference decision, and we provide condition…
A more efficient second order blind identification method for separation of uncorrelated stationary time series
2016
The classical second order source separation methods use approximate joint diagonalization of autocovariance matrices with several lags to estimate the unmixing matrix. Based on recent asymptotic results, we propose a novel unmixing matrix estimator which selects the best lag set from a finite set of candidate sets specified by the user. The theory is illustrated by a simulation study.
Random dynamical system generated by the 3D Navier-Stokes equation with rough transport noise
2022
We consider the Navier-Stokes system in three dimensions perturbed by a transport noise which is sufficiently smooth in space and rough in time. The existence of a weak solution was proved recently, however, as in the deterministic setting the question of uniqueness remains a major open problem. An important feature of systems with uniqueness is the semigroup property satisfied by their solutions. Without uniqueness, this property cannot hold generally. We select a system of solutions satisfying the semigroup property with appropriately shifted rough path. In addition, the selected solutions respect the well accepted admissibility criterium for physical solutions, namely, maximization of th…
Broken ray transform on a Riemann surface with a convex obstacle
2014
We consider the broken ray transform on Riemann surfaces in the presence of an obstacle, following earlier work of Mukhometov. If the surface has nonpositive curvature and the obstacle is strictly convex, we show that a function is determined by its integrals over broken geodesic rays that reflect on the boundary of the obstacle. Our proof is based on a Pestov identity with boundary terms, and it involves Jacobi fields on broken rays. We also discuss applications of the broken ray transform.
Central Limit Theorem for Linear Eigenvalue Statistics for a Tensor Product Version of Sample Covariance Matrices
2017
For $$k,m,n\in {\mathbb {N}}$$ , we consider $$n^k\times n^k$$ random matrices of the form $$\begin{aligned} {\mathcal {M}}_{n,m,k}({\mathbf {y}})=\sum _{\alpha =1}^m\tau _\alpha {Y_\alpha }Y_\alpha ^T,\quad {Y}_\alpha ={\mathbf {y}}_\alpha ^{(1)}\otimes \cdots \otimes {\mathbf {y}}_\alpha ^{(k)}, \end{aligned}$$ where $$\tau _{\alpha }$$ , $$\alpha \in [m]$$ , are real numbers and $${\mathbf {y}}_\alpha ^{(j)}$$ , $$\alpha \in [m]$$ , $$j\in [k]$$ , are i.i.d. copies of a normalized isotropic random vector $${\mathbf {y}}\in {\mathbb {R}}^n$$ . For every fixed $$k\ge 1$$ , if the Normalized Counting Measures of $$\{\tau _{\alpha }\}_{\alpha }$$ converge weakly as $$m,n\rightarrow \infty $$…
A generalization of the Binomial distribution based on the dependence ratio
2014
We propose a generalization of the Binomial distribution, called DR-Binomial, which accommodates dependence among units through a model based on the dependence ratio (Ekholm et al., Biometrika, 82, 1995, 847). Properties of the DR-Binomial are discussed, and the constraints on its parameter space are studied in detail. Likelihood-based inference is presented, using both the joint and profile likelihoods; the usefulness of the DR-Binomial in applications is illustrated on a real dataset displaying negative unit-dependence, and hence under-dispersion compared with the Binomial. Although the DR-Binomial turns out to be a reparameterization of Altham's Additive-Binomial and Kupper–Haseman's Cor…