Search results for " fiscal"

showing 10 items of 271 documents

Political risks: the “red shift” in debt sustainability analysis

2020

Political stability and economic policy uncertainty can be key determinants of sovereign debt dynamics, and we show how they can be incorporated in debt sustainability analysis. We distinguish between short-term ambiguity and long-term uncertainty about political risk factors, and using a combination of narrative scenarios and calibrated probabilistic scenarios we obtain a comprehensive heatmap of high-risk debt dynamics. We use Italy as an interesting case study and demonstrate a “red shift” in the assessment of vulnerabilities when accounting for political risks. Ignoring these risks can lead to excessive optimism and wrong decisions.

La stabilità del sistema politico istituzionale e l'incertezza riguardo le politiche economiche sono due fattori chiave che possono influenzare la dinamica del debito pubblico. Nell'articolo si propone un modello di analisi della sostenibilità del debito sovrano che tenga conto dei fattori di rischio concernenti l'assetto istituzionale di un paese e le sue politiche economiche. In particolare distinguendo fra ambiguità a breve termine e incertezza a lungo termine dei fattori di rischio politico e utilizzando una combinazione di scenari narrativi e scenari probabilistici si costruisce una "heatmap" che permette di attribuire ad ogni politica fiscale la probabilità che l'obiettivo di riduzione dello stock di debito o del deficit sia soddisfatto. Il modello è applicato al caso Italia. I risultati mostrano un "red shift" della vulnerabilità del debito pubblico italiano quando sono inclusi nell'analisi i fattori di rischio politico. Si può quindi concludere che ignorare i rischi derivanti dall'instabilità del sistema politico-istuzionale o quelli derivanti dall'incertezza delle politiche economiche può condurre a un eccessivo ottimismo e a conseguenti scelte sbagliate.n debt sustainability analysispolitical risksPolitical riskEconomic policymedia_common.quotation_subjectGeneral EngineeringRed shiftSettore SECS-S/06 -Metodi Mat. dell'Economia e d. Scienze Attuariali e Finanz.HD61DebtSustainabilityEconomicsred shiftRisk in industry. Risk managementmedia_commonRisk Management Magazine
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IN TEMA DI MISURE CAUTELARI IN MATERIA FISCALE

2014

MISURE CAUTELARI FISCALISettore IUS/12 - Diritto Tributario
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Is an Increase of the Fiscal Budget at EMU level Desirable?

2005

The birth of the European Monetary Union (EMU) has determined the creation of a common currency, the Euro, but unlike other monetary unions, the EMU does not have a central fiscal authority. The role of fiscal policy is left to the responsibility of the governments of the EMU member States. The new architecture modifies the assignment of the instruments to the objectives, especially those of stabilization. The loss of the sovereignty of monetary policy and exchange rate control by the individual member states has determined the inability to use two important instruments of insurance against the risks of shocks. Moreover, the Treaty of Maastricht and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) could…

MacroeconomicsEMU Fiscal BudgetMonetary policyContext (language use)Redistribution (cultural anthropology)Monetary economicsFiscal policyStability and Growth PactExchange rateEconomicsmedia_common.cataloged_instanceTreatyEuropean unionmedia_common
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Discretionary vs nondiscretionary in fiscal mechanism – non-automatic fiscal stabilisers vs automatic fiscal stabilisers

2015

The goal of the present study is to increase the intelligibility of macroeconomic phenomena triggered by governmental intervention in economy by means of fiscal policies. During cyclical movements, fiscal policy can play an important role in order to help stabilise the economy. But discretionary policy usually implies implementation lags and is not automatically reversed when economic conditions change. In contrast, automatic fiscal stabilisers (SFA) ensure a prompter, and self-correcting fiscal response. The present study aims to tackle the topic of discretionary vs nondiscretionary characteristic of fiscal stabilisers (SF). In this context, the scope of the research undertaking is to laun…

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsEconomic policyFiscal policy; fiscal mechanism; non-automatic fiscal stabilisers (SfnA); automatic fiscal stabilisers (SFA)EconomicsScientific debateDiscretionary policyFiscal policyEconomic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja
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How best to measure discretionary fiscal policy? Assessing its impact on private spending

2013

We develop a novel empirical approach to assess the effect of discretionary fiscal policy on private spending consisting of three stages: 1) extract the discretionary component of fiscal policy by estimating a fiscal policy rule; 2) use the residuals of the first-stage regression to investigate the existence of crowding-in and/or crowding-out effects both in the short and the medium term; and 3) condition the response of private spending on a set of country characteristics. We find that an expansion in discretionary fiscal policy boosts growth in the short term, but is detrimental in the medium term. In addition, the empirical findings suggest that the effect of discretionary fiscal policy …

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsGovernmentCrowding in05 social sciencesPrivate spending1. No povertySettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaFiscal unionFiscal policyTerm (time)Medium termCrowding-in and Crowding-out effects0502 economics and business8. Economic growthOpenness to experienceEconomics050207 economicsDiscretionary fiscal policy050205 econometrics Economic Modelling
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Fiscal adjustments and income inequality: a first assessment

2012

Using a statistical approach to identify fiscal adjustments, we find that fiscal consolidation appears to shorten the income gap. Fiscal austerity plans that succeed in bringing public debt to a sustainable path seem to be more likely to reduce inequality. Expansionary fiscal adjustments are particularly important to promote changes in the income distribution.

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsInequalitymedia_common.quotation_subjectSocial SciencesOpennessKuznets curveEconomic inequalityIncome distributionDebt0502 economics and businessEconomics050207 economicsKuznets curve10. No inequalityInequality fiscal consolidation Kuznets curve opennessmedia_common050208 finance05 social sciences1. No povertySettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaFiscal unionAusterityIncome inequality metricsInequalityFiscal consolidation8. Economic growth
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Assessing long-term fiscal developments : a new approach

2011

We use a new approach to assess long-term fiscal developments. By analyzing the time-varying behaviour of the two components of government spending and revenue – responsiveness and persistence–, a feature not captured by automatic stabilisers, we are able to infer about the sources of fiscal deterioration (improvement). Drawing on quarterly data, we estimate recursively these components within a system of government revenue and spending equations using a Three-Stage Least Square method for eight European Union countries plus the US. The results suggest that significant changes in the fiscal stance (including those related to the current crisis) are reflected in the estimates of persistence …

MacroeconomicsEconomics and Econometricsjel:E62Fiscal deterioration Fiscal SustainabilitySocial SciencesFinanzpolitikFiscal SustainabilityFiscal deteriorationFiscal DeteriorationÖffentlicher HaushaltPolitischer Konjunkturzyklus0502 economics and businessFiscal Deterioration fiscal sustainabilityddc:330EconomicsRevenuemedia_common.cataloged_instance050207 economicsEuropean unionH50Dezentralisierung050205 econometrics media_commonGovernment spendingFiscalFiscal Deterioration Fiscal Sustainability.05 social sciencesSettore SECS-P/02 Politica Economicajel:H50Fiscal sustainabilityTerm (time)Government revenuePanelEU-StaatenFiscal sustainabilityE62Öffentliche AusgabenFinance
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Fiscal Devaluations in EMU

2013

2013SummaryWe use a small open economy general equilibrium model to analyse the effects of a fiscal devalua-tion in an EMU country. The model has been calibrated for the Spanish economy, which is a goodexample of the advantages of a change in the tax mix given that its tax system shows a positive biasin the ratio of social security contributions over consumption taxes. The preliminary empirical evi-dence for European countries shows that this bias was negatively correlated with the current accountbalance in the expansionary years leading up to the 2009 crisis, a period when many EMU membersaccumulated large external imbalances. Our simulation results point to significant positive effects of…

MacroeconomicsEconomics and Econometricstax mixfiscal devaluationnominal devaluationGeneral equilibrium theoryjel:E62Small open economyDevaluationBalance of tradejel:F31Monetary economicsDiscount pointsjel:E47Tax Mix Fiscal Devaluation Nominal DevaluationSocial securityEconomicsFinance
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The Analysis on the Cyclical Behaviour of Fiscal Policy in the EU Member States

2013

Abstract This paper deals with the topic of cyclicality of fiscal policy. The main purpose of this paper is to determine the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy in the EU member states, using historical time series for all the European countries during the period between 1995- 2011. The results pointed out that the procyclical fiscal policies are a feature of developing countries and the countercyclical and acyclical fiscal policies are a feature of developed counties.

MacroeconomicsFiscal imbalanceCountercyclical fiscal policyPublic expendituresMember statesGeneral EngineeringEconomicsEnergy Engineering and Power TechnologyDeveloping countryFiscal unionBudget balanceFiscal policyProcyclical fiscal policyProcedia Economics and Finance
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Can fiscal decentralization alleviate government consumption volatility?

2016

We analyse how fiscal decentralization affects the volatility of government consumption extending the existing literature that mainly deals with the effects of the former on government size. Using data for 97 developed and developing countries from 1971 to 2010, we find that a higher degree of fiscal decentralization leads to lower government consumption volatility. This result holds for the sub-sample of advanced economies, while it is not confirmed for those less-developed. This mechanism seems to work mainly through a lower volatility of the non-discretionary spending, which typically belongs to the central government’s policy. We also confirm existing findings according to which country…

Macroeconomicsjel:E62jel:H60Decentralization0502 economics and businessEconomics050207 economics050205 econometrics Government spendingFiscal imbalanceautomatic stabilisers; country size; fiscal decentralization; fiscal policy; spending volatility; economics and econometricsfiscal decentralization05 social sciencesautomatic stabiliserseconomics and econometricsAutomatic stabiliserjel:H71jel:H72Fiscal unionFiscal policyFiscal policy fiscal decentralization spending volatility automatic stabilisers country sizeCentral governmentGovernment revenueVolatility (finance)country sizefiscal policyspending volatility
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