Search results for " forecast"
showing 10 items of 220 documents
Wind speed stochastic models: a case study for the mediterranean area
2010
Space-Time Forecasting of Seismic Events in Chile
2017
The aim of this work is to study the seismicity in Chile using the ETAS (epidemic type aftershock sequences) space‐time approach. The proposed ETAS model is estimated using a semi‐parametric technique taking into account the parametric and nonparametric components corresponding to the triggered and background seismicity, respectively. The model is then used to predict the temporal and spatial intensity of events for some areas of Chile where recent large earthquakes (with magnitude greater than 8.0 M) occurred.
Mathematical Methods for Research Excellence : Book of Abstracts
2022
Comment améliorer la prévision des ventes pour le marketing ? Les apports de la théorie du chaos
2013
La littérature en marketing constate un décalage entre les avancées réalisées par les chercheurs qui développent de nouvelles méthodes de prévision des ventes, et l'usage massif de méthodes traditionnelles reposant sur l'hypothèse de linéarité des processus analysés. Cette recherche expose la contribution potentielle de la théorie du chaos à l'amélioration de la prévision des ventes. Une illustration de ces apports est proposée avec une application à la prévision des ventes de consoles de jeux vidéo au Japon. Les résultats mettent en évidence la capacité de la méthode proposée à détecter la présence de chaos dans la série et montrent la possibilité de préciser l'horizon de prévisibilité des…
Qualitative analysis of housing demand using Google trends data
2019
Big data analytics often refer to the breakdown of huge amounts of data into a more readable and useful format. This study utilises Google Trends big data as a proxy for an analysis of housing demand. We employ a qualitative method (fuzzy set/Qualitative Comparative Analysis, fsQCA), instead of a quantitative method, for our estimate and forecast. The empirical results show that fsQCA successfully forecasts seasonal time series, even though the dataset is small in size. Our findings fill the gap in the qualitative and time series forecasting literature, and the forecasting procedure herein also offers a good standard for industry.
Engine/Transmission Matching
2014
This chapter deals with the forecasting of vehicle performance on the road, according to the installed engine. It begins with Section 1, which shows the calculation of the resistance to motion, that is, the forces that the vehicle must overcome to advance on flat roads and uphill. The calculation excludes accidental resistance in curves because it is not essential for predicting the behavior of the vehicle on the road. Section 2 begins with the power characteristic, the forecast by traction–speed and power–speed diagrams, calculation of gear ratios, and then passing to the limits to the estimated acceleration, feature consumption, and distance. This chapter concludes with a section on the d…
Nonlinear black-box models for short-term forecasting of air temperature in the town of Palermo
2011
Weather data are crucial to correctly design buildings and their heating and cooling systems and to assess their energy performances. In the intensely urbanized towns the effect of climatic parameters is further emphasized by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon, known as the increase in the air temperature of urban areas, compared to the one measured in the extra-urban areas. The analysis of the heat island needs detailed local climate data which can be collected only by a dedicated weather monitoring system. The Department of Energy and Environmental Researches of the University of Palermo (Italy) has built up a weather monitoring system that works 24 hours per day and makes data availa…
Author Correction: Evaluation of three methods for biomass estimation in small invertebrates, using three large disparate parasite species as model o…
2018
Invertebrate biomass is considered one of the main factors driving processes in ecosystems. It can be measured directly, primarily by weighing individuals, but more often indirect estimators are used. We developed two indirect and non-destructive approaches to estimate biomass of small invertebrates in a simple manner. The first one was based on clay modelling and the second one was based on image analysis implemented with open-source software. Furthermore, we tested the accuracy of the widely used geometric approximation method (third method). We applied these three different methods to three morphologically disparate model species, an acanthocephalan worm, a crustacean and a flatworm. To …
Lagrangian matches between observations from aircraft, lidar and radar in a warm conveyor belt crossing orography
2021
Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are important airstreams in extratropical cyclones, often leading to the formation of intense precipitation and the amplification of upper-level ridges. This study presents a case study that involves aircraft, lidar and radar observations in a WCB ascending from western Europe towards the Baltic Sea during the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) and T-NAWDEX-Falcon in October 2012, a preparatory campaign for the THORPEX North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (TNAWDEX). Trajectories were used to link different observations along the WCB, that is, to establish so-called Lagrangian matches between observations. To this aim, a…
Faktoru modeļu priekšrocības ekonomiskās aktivitātes īstermiņa prognozēšanā
2014
Promocijas darba anotācija Pēdējā desmitgadē Latvijas tautsaimniecības attīstība bijusi īpaši svārstīga, kas sarežģīja ekonomiskās politikas lēmumu pieņemšanu ekonomiskās situācijas stabilizēšanai. Lai atvieglotu lēmumu pieņemšanu, ekonomisko aktivitāti īstermiņā var prognozēt ar ekonometriskiem modeļiem. Promocijas darba mērķis ir novērtēt faktoru modeļu priekšrocības ekonomiskās aktivitātes prognozēšanas kontekstā un noteikt Latvijas gadījumā nepieciešamo instrumentu un metožu klāstu īstermiņa prognozēšanai. Promocijas darbā tiek sniegtas atbildes uz faktoru modeļu lietošanas problēmjautājumiem īstermiņa prognozēšanā, kā arī novērtēti daži faktoru modeļu lietošanas aspekti. Faktoru modeļu…