Search results for " hypothesis"
showing 10 items of 371 documents
Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer …
2019
Abstract In this paper we analyse the efficiency of the sports betting market, seeking to ascertain whether the market is efficient in the case of fixed odds provided by bookmakers in the four major European soccer leagues under the semi-strong efficiency hypothesis. By examining the trends of odds in the event of a major change in expectations about team results, i.e. when the head coach of a team is replaced, we attempt to verify the argument that a profitable strategy for the bettor is likely to be possible. In this case, the market under consideration would be inefficient. Analysing the average effect of head coach replacement, we find a positive impact on team performance. Based on thi…
No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35
2013
This paper analyzes the behavior of Ibex35 from January 1999 to December 2001, in order to check if it follows a different process from random walk so its return is not a white noise and it can be predictable, against the efficient market hypothesis. For that, a nonlinear generating process of return will be considered and a STAR-APARCH model will be specified. This model allows a nonlinear behavior in the conditional mean and in the conditional variance. The empirical results show that the Ibex35 follows a nonlinear and asymmetric process, both in the conditional mean as in the conditional variance, so the weak-version of efficient market hypothesis is rejected. El trabajo analiza el compo…
Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation
2004
According to several empirical studies, US inflation and nominal interest rates, as well as the real interest rate, can be described as unit root processes. These results imply that nominal interest rates and expected inflation do not move one-for-one in the long run, which is not consistent with the theoretical models. In this paper we introduce a nonlinear bivariate mixture autoregressive model that seems to fit quarterly US data (1952 Q1 – 2000 Q2) reasonably well. It is found that the three-month treasury bill rate and inflation share a common nonlinear component that explains a large part of their persistence. The real interest rate is devoid of this component, indicating one-for-one m…
Linear and nonlinear interest rate sensitivity of Spanish banks
2011
Abstract Interest rate risk is one of the major financial risks faced by banks due to the very nature of the banking business. The most common approach in the literature has been to estimate the impact of interest rate risk on banks using a simple linear regression model. However, the relationship between interest rate changes and bank stock returns does not need to be exclusively linear. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate exposure of the Spanish banking industry employing both parametric and non-parametric estimation methods. Its main contribution is to use, for the first time in the context of banks’ interest rate risk, a nonparametric regression technique…
A Multisite Preregistered Paradigmatic Test of the Ego-Depletion Effect
2021
We conducted a preregistered multilaboratory project ( k = 36; N = 3,531) to assess the size and robustness of ego-depletion effects using a novel replication method, termed the paradigmatic replication approach. Each laboratory implemented one of two procedures that was intended to manipulate self-control and tested performance on a subsequent measure of self-control. Confirmatory tests found a nonsignificant result ( d = 0.06). Confirmatory Bayesian meta-analyses using an informed-prior hypothesis (δ = 0.30, SD = 0.15) found that the data were 4 times more likely under the null than the alternative hypothesis. Hence, preregistered analyses did not find evidence for a depletion effect. Ex…
SEAI: Social Emotional Artificial Intelligence Based on Damasio’s Theory of Mind
2018
A socially intelligent robot must be capable to extract meaningful information in real-time from the social environment and react accordingly with coherent human-like behaviour. Moreover, it should be able to internalise this information, to reason on it at a higher abstract level, build its own opinions independently and then automatically bias the decision-making according to its unique experience. In the last decades, neuroscience research highlighted the link between the evolution of such complex behaviour and the evolution of a certain level of consciousness, which cannot leave out of a body that feels emotions as discriminants and prompters. In order to develop cognitive systems for s…
Interoception moderates the relation between alexithymia and risky-choices in a framing task: A proposal of two-stage model of decision-making.
2021
Decision-making depends on the context (frame) in which questions and alternatives are presented. Moreover, research has showed that the ability to detect bodily sensations (interoception) and being able to attribute these changes to emotions correctly (alexithymia) influence how we make decisions. The aim of the present research was to study how interoception and alexithymia might affect the Framing effect (FE), a cognitive bias closely related to emotional system. 42 healthy participants completed the Risky-choice Framing task and their interoception and alexithymia levels were measured. Results showed that the participants were more risk-taking under the negative frames in comparison to …
A robust calibration methodology for an On-Board Diagnostic car system
2006
New car models are now by law equipped with on-board diagnostic (OBD) systems aimed at monitoring the state of health of strategic components that ensure low levels of polluting exhaust emissions. During development phases, for each new car model, the OBD system must be finely calibrated. This article presents a robust calibration methodology taking into account sources of variability mainly due to production process, operating, and environmental conditions. The methodology enables us to evaluate the false alarm and failure to detect risks intrinsically related to the adopted calibration. An application concerning an upstream oxygen sensor monitored by the OBD is presented.
Performance assessment of individual and ensemble data-mining techniques for gully erosion modeling
2017
Gully erosion is identified as an important sediment source in a range of environments and plays a conclusive role in redistribution of eroded soils on a slope. Hence, addressing spatial occurrence pattern of this phenomenon is very important. Different ensemble models and their single counterparts, mostly data mining methods, have been used for gully erosion susceptibility mapping; however, their calibration and validation procedures need to be thoroughly addressed. The current study presents a series of individual and ensemble data mining methods including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), maximum entropy (ME), ANN-SVM, ANN-ME, and SVM-ME to map gully erosion …
Ethnic and Religious Conflicts in France
2011
International audience; This chapter presents a detailed analysis of current and historical interethnic relations in France. Kamiejski, De Oliveira, and Guimond apply several theories in exploration of the variables related to the development of the existent ethnic tensions in this region. Policy models are also evaluated and considered as means of engendering harmony in the future. Discussion of the most recent and largest immigrant group to France, the Maghrebians, reveals several factors associated with increasing tensions including the large degree of assumed difference in values, religion, and culture. The authors recognize that France has set the stage for positive interethnic relatio…