Search results for " hypothesis"
showing 10 items of 371 documents
Interval Length Analysis in Multi Layer Model
2009
In this paper we present an hypothesis test of randomness based on the probability density function of the symmetrized Kulback-Leibler distance estimated, via a Monte Carlo simulation, by the distributions of the interval lengths detected using the Multi-Layer Model (MLM). The $MLM$ is based on the generation of several sub-samples of an input signal; in particular a set of optimal cut-set thresholds are applied to the data to detect signal properties. In this sense MLM is a general pattern detection method and it can be considered a preprocessing tool for pattern discovery. At the present the test has been evaluated on simulated signals which respect a particular tiled microarray approach …
Carbon and inflation
2021
Abstract This paper investigates whether European Union Allowances (EUAs) can serve as an inflation hedge for two economic areas, four euro countries and two non-euro countries. The Extended Fisher Hypothesis is tested and the evidence shows a strong positive relationship between EUA returns and the unexpected inflation component in all the economic areas or countries analysed, except for the US. Therefore, EUAs are able to provide a hedge against unanticipated inflation rates.
US stock market sensitivity to interest and inflation rates: a quantile regression approach
2016
ABSTRACTThis article studies the sensitivity of the US stock market to nominal and real interest rates and inflation during the 2003–2013 period using quantile regression (QR). The empirical results show that the stock market has a significant sensitivity to changes in interest rates and inflation and finds differences across sectors and over time. Moreover, the effect of changes in both interest rates and inflation tends to be more pronounced during extreme market conditions, thus distinguishing expansion periods from recession periods.
Some new results on interest rate rules in EMU and in the US
2000
Abstract This paper offers two new results on interest rate rules. First, we show that the empirical evidence from 1970 onwards for the US is compatible with a Taylor rule when we consider the possibility of changes in the inflation target and in the real interest rate. Second, recursive estimates of a forward-looking version of the Taylor rule for EMU confirm an increasing weight for inflation in the area, possibly as a consequence of the EMS, and, furthermore, a convergence in the nineties to the German value observed for the whole period. This process has coincided with an important reduction in the deviation of inflation across EMU countries. The results also show that credibility probl…
An Analysis of the Time-Varying Behavior of the Equilibrium Velocity of Money in the Euro Area
2020
Recent developments in inflation and M3 velocity in the euro area have raised serious doubts about the reliability of M3 growth as a pillar of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. We develop a very flexible and comprehensive state-space framework for modeling the velocity of circulation. Our specification allows for the estimation of different autoregressive alternatives and includes control instruments, whose coefficients can be set up either common or idiosyncratic. This is particularly useful to detect asymmetries in the reaction among countries to common shocks. Our findings first suggest that the downward trend of M3 velocity is mainly explained by the evolution of permanent income, pro…
A Small Forward-Looking Macroeconomic Model for EMU
2001
In this paper we estimate a small forward-looking macroeconomic model for EMU which allows us to analyze the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy implemented by the European Central Bank through an interest rate rule that stabilizes inflation and output. The estimation of this model, which comprises forward-looking versions of the IS and the Phillips curves as well as the interest rate rule, is conducted by GMM using quarterly data from 1986 to 2000. We find that this simple model matches the dynamic properties of the output gap, inflation and the interest rate in EMU quite accurately. We also perform several exercises that show the response of output, inflation and interest rates …
Gender discrimination and intergenerational transmission of preferences
2004
This paper provides an explanation for the existence of gender discrimination in the labour market focusing on the intergenerational transmission of preferences related to the attitude of women towards jobs and family. Changes in women's preferences over generations depend on the socialization efforts of their parents which in turn are influenced by both the firm's expected recruitment policy and the expected utility from household care. We obtain two types of steady state equilibria: the discriminatory equilibrium, in which women are segregated to low-paid jobs, and the non-discriminatory equilibrium, in which women are hired in highly-paid jobs. The conditions of convergence to each equil…
Logit analysis in L2 research: measuring L1 and L2/Ln effects
1998
In quantitatively oriented L2 studies, we normally contrast two phenomena at a time, both at the group and individual level. However, it is generally acknowledged that what a learner produces is determined by a multitude of factors influencing the interlanguage (IL) simultaneously. When dealing with discrete, nominal categories, the numerical and causal relations between the variables involved cannot be adequately captured in an analysis where the phenomenon to be studied and the explanatory factors are subjected to a series of pairwise statistical tests. Instead of the two-variable approach, multivariate techniques should be applied, since they allow for the examination of the effects of m…
Carry a big stick, or no stick at all: Punishment and endowment heterogeneity in the trust game
2016
AbstractWe investigate the effect of costly punishment in a trust game with endowment heterogeneity. Our findings indicate that the difference between the investor and the allocator’s initial endowments determines the effect of punishment on trust and trustworthiness. Punishment fosters trust only when the investor is wealthier than the allocator. Otherwise, punishment fails to promote trusting behavior. As for trustworthiness, the effect is just the opposite. The higher the difference between the investor and the allocator’s initial endowments, the less willing allocators are to pay back. We discuss the consistency of our findings with social preference models (like inequality aversion, re…
Nature et impacts des effets spatiaux sur les valeurs immobilières : le cas de l'espace urbanisé francilien
2013
International audience