Search results for " interest rate"
showing 10 items of 56 documents
Notes on Using the Hidden Asset or the Contribution Asset to Compile the Actuarial Balance for Pay-as-You-Go Pension Systems
2010
The aim of this paper is twofold: to determine the connection between the “contribution asset” and the “hidden asset” and to discover whether using either of them to compile the actuarial balance in Swedish-type pay-as-you-go pension systems will provide a reliable solvency indicator. We develop an overlapping generations model and apply it to the defined benefit pay-as-you-go system, although it would be just as valid for NDC systems. On the theoretical side the main conclusion is that, despite their very different natures, in a simplified scenario the contribution asset and the hidden asset could coincide if r - the real rate of interest - is equal to the growth in the wage bill. On the a…
Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why "too" low (high) for "so" long?
2022
We study the behaviour of real interest rate gaps-i.e. periods of real interest rates above (below) the natural interest rate-and link their length with a set of key observable determinants. Using quarterly data for 13 OECD countries over (close to) the last 60 years, we find that global risk-taking, CPI inflation, (un)conventional monetary policy, and income redistribution crucially shape the duration of both events. However, while labour-related supply-side factors appear to affect the length of positive interest rate gaps, the adoption of an inflation targeting regime and the current account balance seem to explain the duration of negative interest rate gaps. Our results suggest that the…
Pricing of Asian exchange rate options under stochastic interest rates as a sum of options
2002
The aim of the paper is to develop pricing formulas for long term European type Asian options written on the exchange rate in a two currency economy. The exchange rate as well as the foreign and domestic zero coupon bond prices are assumed to follow geometric Brownian motions. The emphasis is devoted to the discretely sampled Asian option. It is shown how the value of this option can be approximated as the sum of Black-Scholes options. The formula is obtained under the extension of results developed by Rogers and Shi (1995) and Jamshidian (1991). In addition bounds for the pricing error are determined. Comparing with Monte Carlo simulation the pricing is found to be very precise.
Can fiscal policy stimulus boost economic recovery
2011
We assess the role played by fiscal policy in explaining the dynamics of asset markets. Using a panel of ten industrialized countries, we show that a positive fiscal shock has a negative impact in both stock and housing prices. However, while stock prices immediately adjust to the shock and the effect of fiscal policy is temporary, housing prices gradually and persistently fall. Consequently, the attempts of fiscal policy to mitigate stock price developments (e.g. via taxes on capital gains) may severely de-stabilize housing markets. The empirical findings also point to significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts, which gives rise to the importance of the im…
Debating Sound Money in Early Modern Europe: From Dualist to Metallic Monetary Systems
2019
International audience; In this paper, we present the monetary debates in Europe from the XVIth to the XVIIIth centuries from the viewpoint of the problem of good and sound money. The framework of the paper is built on a typology of monetary systems, by which a dualist system is distinguished from a metallic one. Under the dualist system, the value in units of account of the specie in circulation was defined by monetary proclamations (Einaudi locates this era from Charlemagne to the French Revolution). Metallist proponents aimed at preventing any kind of manipulations with a radical transformation of the system of payment, which gave birth to a metallic monetary system from the very end of …
A Reconsideration of the Role of Forward-Market Arbitrage in Keynes’s and Hicks’s Theories of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
2014
International audience; This paper develops the relationship between Hicks’s and Keynes’s writings on the theory of the term structure of interest rates, and shows in detail how Hicks built on and extended Keynes’s account. According to this theory, the level of the long-term interest rate is determined by expectations of future short-term rates. Keynes’s thinking contained several notions – such as the preferred habitat of lenders, the theory of forward markets, and risk-premiums – which Hicks used to give a more complete theory of the term structure of interest rates. Besides implementing these notions in his own theory, Hicks introduced the concepts of the preferred habitat of borrowers,…
Notations et écarts de rentabilité : le marché français avant l'euro
2003
The main task of this paper is to confront two classical measures of default risk of the issuer, the rating and the spread. The first is attributed by agencies specialized in this activity (Standard and Poor's or Moody's) while the second results directly from the market price of the bond. This article studies this link over a period of two years for about forty French denominated bonds. Two measures of the spread are used and the results obtained show the very partial consideration of this information by the investors on the French bond market.
Investment Modelling at the Euro Area Level
2014
The aim of this research is to model the investment function at the level of the Euro zone. To achieve this main objective, we use and implement the structural equation modeling procedure for empirical analysis. Using this technique, the causal relationships established between investment and influencing factors are estimated and tested. Also, in the process of modeling structural equations, we examine empirical data sets related to the Euro area’s Member States.
THE LONG-RUN DETERMINANTS OF INVESTMENT: A DYNAMIC APPROACH FOR THE FUTURE ECONOMIC POLICIES
2010
Investment is the sum of the purchases on newly produced capital, changes in business inventories referred to as inventory investment, and the purchases of new residential housing. The work covered by this study aims to identify the model that presents, in the best possible way, the method of investment’s calculation and to determine the factors of influence. In the first part, the investment is analyzed as a linear function dependent on the interest rate; and the second part implies a new model for determining long-term investments, but also an identification of the measures that would lead to increased investments.
A New Perspective of Investment Modelling at the European Union Level
2015
The study that represents the subject of this paper follows the analysis of the investment function and the influencing factors at the European Union level. The research has, as a starting point, the hypothesis that there is a negative relationship between the European Union investments and tax rates. For verifying this hypothesis, the structural equation modeling is used (SEM), and the same technique is applied in the second part of the research, which will track the development of the investments’ model at the European Union level. The results will highlight the relationships that are established between specific variables that characterize the volume of investments.