Search results for " scenario"
showing 10 items of 92 documents
The climate change effect on the african monsoon region : evolution of the precipitation and atmospheric fields in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations un…
2013
The fourth IPCC report in 2007 established the synthesis of previously published work onthe effects of climate change on global and regional scales. It shows in particular that no consensuscan be found with regard to the future of rainfall — and atmospheric dynamics- associatedwith region — African monsoon. This dissertation revisits this issue in the light of new dataand using an approach avoiding over-representation of the number of simulations available forone type of model and taking into account the diversity of models and their evolution in time :twenty general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the exercises CMIP3 (twelve GCMs)and CMIP5 (eight GCMs) under the A1B emissions sc…
LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT OF ITALIAN CITRUS BASED PRODUCTS. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS AND IMPROVMENT SCENARIOS
2010
Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted sign…
Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest
2015
Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this …
COVID-19, an opportunity for developing countries?
2020
The COVID-19 outbreak was declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) as global pandemic in March 2020. Considering the necessity to implement rapid response to control the pandemic and the fragility and the state of need of low income countries, it will be mandatory to develop a global approach in order to reduce the spread of infection and the creation of community viral reservoirs. So far, we could hypothesize a worst case scenario in which when the COVID-19 outbreak hits a peak in Africa and in low-income countries, the majority of such countries will be unprepared, with low resources allocated for affording the viral emergency and the consequences will be catastrophic with no lesso…
Limits and Criticalities of Predictions and Forecasting in Complex Social and Economic Scenarios: A Cybernetics Key
2014
Predictions play a key role in assuring the status of “rationality” in decisions. Nevertheless, in the field of social sciences and economics, predictions fail to correctly depict the oncoming scenarios. Why is it so difficult to achieve quantitative prediction of social and economic systems? Can science provide reliable predictions of social and economic paths that can be used to implement effective interventions? As in the notorious “El Farol bar problem” depicted by Brian Arthur (Am Econ Rev 84:406–411, 1994), the validity of predictive models is more a social issue than a matter of good mathematics. Predictability in social systems is due to limited knowledge of society and human behavi…
A multi-scenario Decision Support System for real-time operation of over-year multi-reservoir system 2. DSS simulation
2019
A companion paper (Arena et al, 2019) has introduced the architecture of the DSS and has described its governing equations. In a real-time, dynamic decision-making context, it is a tool to support decisions at the current time step concerning water allocations to municipal demand centres and irrigation districts as well as additional intakes from costly water sources in a water resources system featuring reservoirs with over-year behaviour. The DSS is designed as a linearized MIP (mixed integer programming) optimization model and as such, it includes an objective function and constraints on 1) mass balances at system’s nodes, 2) systems’ topology, 3) component’s capacity, 4) spills, as well…
Towards the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) for building renovation: Domain Mapping Matrix (DMM) for sustainability renovation criteri…
2018
Future building renovation concerns more holistic perspectives related to the sustainability seen in a wider range of objectives/criteria facilitated by the renovation scenarios. In this regard, based on the studies upon existing sustainability evaluation and assessment tools carried out in previous research works, a characteristic diagram including a value map for evaluating a holistic sustainable retrofitting was developed. Further, in present paper, by reviewing the relevant literature, looking into recent European renovation research projects, the Danish SIGMA database, and investigation of a real case, a comprehensive list of renovation approaches (i.e. insulation technologies, windows…
Water erosion prediction by stochastic and empirical models in the Mediterranean: A case study in Northern Sicily (Italy)
2012
The present thesis aimed to explore the methodological advantages as well as limitations in applying different modelling approaches to predict water soil erosion in Mediterranean environments. The research was accomplished in the central northern part of Sicily (Italy), considering this region to be representative of Mediterranean environmental conditions. In this region soil degradation problems, due to water erosion are becoming more and more serious. Consequently, defining models being able to predict erosion susceptibility and to discriminate environmental factors causing erosion is important to protect soil resources. The prediction of the spatial distribution of soil erosion processes…
Smart renewable generation for an islanded system. Technical and economic issues of future scenarios
2012
The subject addressed in this paper is the analytical study of the transition of an energy generation system for a real MV/LV distribution system from one that is “fuel-based” to a distributed and smart “renewables-based” system. The paper outlines both the technical and the economic issues related to such a transition from one type of system to the other. The study is carried out for a real islanded network located in the Island of Pantelleria (Mediterranean Sea). The results obtained are presented and discussed, putting into evidence the technical, environmental and economic benefits of using smart technologies and renewable energy sources.
Safety valuation methods at urban atypical intersections. Analysis of infrastructural scenarios
2007
The definition of decision support tools for identifying ex ante evaluation issues for road safety measures is a new challenge for policymakers and designers managing road networks with the intention of improving traffic safety for roads of their competence. This is consistent with explicit strategies on sustainability in the transport sector established at European level, considering road safety as an essential prerequisite to warrant a sustainable mobility. Based on these considerations, the need for evaluation instruments of safety conditions both for existing infrastructural schemes and for new road installations is recently arisen so that the identification of risks involved in a parti…