Search results for " statistics"
showing 10 items of 1891 documents
Adaptive Population Importance Samplers: A General Perspective
2016
Importance sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo method, widely used to approximate a distribution of interest using a random measure composed of a set of weighted samples generated from another proposal density. Since the performance of the algorithm depends on the mismatch between the target and the proposal densities, a set of proposals is often iteratively adapted in order to reduce the variance of the resulting estimator. In this paper, we review several well-known adaptive population importance samplers, providing a unified common framework and classifying them according to the nature of their estimation and adaptive procedures. Furthermore, we interpret the underlying motivation …
Group Metropolis Sampling
2017
Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. Two well-known class of MC methods are the Importance Sampling (IS) techniques and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In this work, we introduce the Group Importance Sampling (GIS) framework where different sets of weighted samples are properly summarized with one summary particle and one summary weight. GIS facilitates the design of novel efficient MC techniques. For instance, we present the Group Metropolis Sampling (GMS) algorithm which produces a Markov chain of sets of weighted samples. GMS in general outperforms other multiple try schemes…
Recycling Gibbs sampling
2017
Gibbs sampling is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, extensively used in signal processing, machine learning and statistics. The key point for the successful application of the Gibbs sampler is the ability to draw samples from the full-conditional probability density functions efficiently. In the general case this is not possible, so in order to speed up the convergence of the chain, it is required to generate auxiliary samples. However, such intermediate information is finally disregarded. In this work, we show that these auxiliary samples can be recycled within the Gibbs estimators, improving their efficiency with no extra cost. Theoretical and exhaustive numerical co…
Machine learning techniques demonstrating individual movement patterns of the vertebral column: the fingerprint of spinal motion
2022
Surface topography systems enable the capture of spinal dynamic movement; however, it is unclear whether vertebral dynamics are unique enough to identify individuals. Therefore, in this study, we investigated whether the identification of individuals is possible based on dynamic spinal data. Three different data representations were compared (automated extracted features using contrastive loss and triplet loss functions, as well as simple descriptive statistics). High accuracies indicated the possible existence of a personal spinal 'fingerprint', therefore enabling subject recognition. The present work forms the basis for an objective comparison of subjects and the transfer of the method to…
Imbalance Effects in the Lucas Model: An Analytical Exploration
2004
In this note, we use a technique analogous to Xie's method (1994) to solve analytically the Lucas model with externality in a specific parametric case. In particular, we characterize the shape of imbalance effects in this model. Our results are entirely consistent with the findings of the related computational literature. Moreover, our analytical investigation tends to show that these findings are robust to the presence of the Lucas externality as long as a unique equilibrium path exist.
CovSel
2018
Ensemble methods combine the predictions of a set of models to reach a better prediction quality compared to a single model's prediction. The ensemble process consists of three steps: 1) the generation phase where the models are created, 2) the selection phase where a set of possible ensembles is composed and one is selected by a selection method, 3) the fusion phase where the individual models' predictions of the selected ensemble are combined to an ensemble's estimate. This paper proposes CovSel, a selection approach for regression problems that ranks ensembles based on the coverage of adequately estimated training points and selects the ensemble with the highest coverage to be used in th…
Efficient anomaly detection on sampled data streams with contaminated phase I data
2020
International audience; Control chart algorithms aim to monitor a process over time. This process consists of two phases. Phase I, also called the learning phase, estimates the normal process parameters, then in Phase II, anomalies are detected. However, the learning phase itself can contain contaminated data such as outliers. If left undetected, they can jeopardize the accuracy of the whole chart by affecting the computed parameters, which leads to faulty classifications and defective data analysis results. This problem becomes more severe when the analysis is done on a sample of the data rather than the whole data. To avoid such a situation, Phase I quality must be guaranteed. The purpose…
An Information-Theoretic Framework to Measure the Dynamic Interaction between Neural Spike Trains
2021
Understanding the interaction patterns among simultaneous recordings of spike trains from multiple neuronal units is a key topic in neuroscience. However, an optimal approach of assessing these interactions has not been established, as existing methods either do not consider the inherent point process nature of spike trains or are based on parametric assumptions that may lead to wrong inferences if not met. This work presents a framework, grounded in the field of information dynamics, for the model-free, continuous-time estimation of both undirected (symmetric) and directed (causal) interactions between pairs of spike trains. The framework decomposes the overall information exchanged dynami…
Testing for goodness rather than lack of fit of continuous probability distributions.
2021
The vast majority of testing procedures presented in the literature as goodness-of-fit tests fail to accomplish what the term is promising. Actually, a significant result of such a test indicates that the true distribution underlying the data differs substantially from the assumed model, whereas the true objective is usually to establish that the model fits the data sufficiently well. Meeting that objective requires to carry out a testing procedure for a problem in which the statement that the deviations between model and true distribution are small, plays the role of the alternative hypothesis. Testing procedures of this kind, for which the term tests for equivalence has been coined in sta…
Estimation and visualization of confusability matrices from adaptive measurement data
2010
Abstract We present a simple but effective method based on Luce’s choice axiom [Luce, R.D. (1959). Individual choice behavior: A theoretical analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons] for consistent estimation of the pairwise confusabilities of items in a multiple-choice recognition task with arbitrarily chosen choice-sets. The method combines the exact (non-asymptotic) Bayesian way of assessing uncertainty with the unbiasedness emphasized in the classical frequentist approach. We apply the method to data collected using an adaptive computer game designed for prevention of reading disability. A player’s estimated confusability of phonemes (or more accurately, phoneme–grapheme connections) and l…