Search results for " volatility."
showing 10 items of 107 documents
HETEROGENEITY IN RISK PREFERENCES LEADS TO STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY
2018
This paper studies the price processes of a claim on terminal endowment and of a claim on firm book value when the underlying variables follow a bivariate geometric Brownian motion. If the state-price process is multiplicatively separable into time and endowment functions, our main result shows that firm (endowment) price volatility is stochastic (state-dependent) if, and only if, the endowment function is not a power function. In a pure exchange economy populated by two agents with constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) preferences we confirm the separability, and we show furthermore that firm (endowment) price volatility is stochastic (state-dependent) if, and only if, both agents are he…
Stochastic dynamical modelling of spot freight rates
2014
Based on empirical analysis of the Capesize and Panamax indices, we propose different continuous-time stochastic processes to model their dynamics. The models go beyond the standard geometric Brownian motion, and incorporate observed effects like heavy-tailed returns, stochastic volatility and memory. In particular, we suggest stochastic dynamics based on exponential Levy processes with normal inverse Gaussian distributed logarithmic returns. The Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility model is shown to capture time-varying volatility in the data. Finally, continuous-time autoregressive processes provide a class of models sufficiently rich to incorporate short-term persistence …
Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade: Blooming or Withering Roses?
2013
Abstract Using a gravity model and data on 182 countries worldwide, this paper estimates the effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade for ten years spanning 1980 through 2010. We provide added confirmation and further strengthen the empirical findings in Rose (2000) prior to 1999, but we find a gradually diminishing Rose effect for the 2000-2010 period, when the Euro Zone is added to the currency union dummy. The rest of the coefficients generally comply in magnitude and sign with what is standard in the “gravity” literature. Our findings support a much stronger effect of a currency union on trade than the hypothetical effect of reducing exchange rate v…
Liquidity Synchronization, Its Determinants and Outcomes under Economic Growth Volatility: Evidence from Emerging Asian Economies
2021
This study investigates the country-level determinants of liquidity synchronization and degrees of liquidity synchronization during economic growth volatility. As a non-diversifiable risk factor, liquidity co-movement shock spreads market-wide and thus disrupts the overall functioning of the financial market. Firms in Asian markets operate in legal and regulatory environments distinct from those of firms analyzed in the previous literature. Comprehensive analyses of liquidity synchronicity in emerging markets are limited. A major knowledge gap pertaining to Asian emerging markets serves as the primary motivation for this study. Seven Asian emerging economies are selected from the MSCI emerg…
Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Trade-off Between Output Gap and Inflation Variability?
2002
We utilize a stochastic volatility model to analyse the possible effects of inflation targeting on the trade–off between output gap variability and inflation variability. We find that the adoption of inflation targets (in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, the UK, Sweden and Finland) might result in a more favourable monetary policy trade–off (except in Australia and Finland). This conclusion is reached by comparing, first, the economic performance of targeting countries in the 1980s and the 1990s; and second, the economic performance in the 1990s of targeting and non–targeting countries (the USA, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, France and the Netherlands). We focus on two possible explanations f…
Enhancement of stability in systems with metastable states
2007
The investigation of noise‐induced phenomena in far from equilibrium systems is one of the approach used to understand the behaviour of physical and biological complex systems. Metastability is a generic feature of many nonlinear systems, and the problem of the lifetime of metastable states involves fundamental aspects of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. The enhancement of the life‐time of metastable states through the noise enhanced stability effect and the role played by the resonant activation phenomenon will be discussed in models of interdisciplinary physics: (i) Ising model (ii) Josephson junction; (iii) stochastic FitzHugh‐Nagumo model; (iv) a population dynamics model, and (v) …
Switching to floating exchange rates, devaluations, and stock returns in MENA countries
2012
Abstract We test for the impact of the announcements of floating and/or devaluating the exchange rate on stock returns in three MENA countries after the financial crises they experienced. We, first, use an event-study methodology to test for event-induced abnormal volatility of stock returns in Egypt, Morocco and Turkey. We, then, use three different methodologies to test for abnormal returns: a traditional approach and two approaches that control for event-induced volatility. We find clear evidence of abnormal volatility and abnormal returns due to the floating of the Egyptian and Turkish exchange rates in 2003 and 2001, respectively. In contrast, our results do not show that the devaluati…
Country size and business cycle volatility: Scale really matters
2007
Abstract In a recent study Andrew Rose found that country size does not matter for several economic outcomes [Rose, A.K., 2006. Size really doesn't matter: In search of a national scale effect. J. Japanese Int. Economies 4, 482–507]. However, he did not consider the effect that country size may have on business-cycle volatility. To investigate the empirical relationship between business cycle volatility and country size, we use a panel data set that includes 167 countries from 1960 to 2000. The results suggest very strongly that the relationship between country size and business cycle volatility is negative and statistically significant. This implies that smaller countries are subject to mo…
Forecasting US Growth During the Great Recession: Is the Financial Volatility the Missing Ingredient?
2012
The Great Recession endured by the main industrialized countries during the period 2008-2009, in the wake of the financial and banking crisis, has pointed out the major role of the financial sector on macroeconomic fluctuations. In this respect, many researchers have started to reconsider the linkages between financial and macroeconomic areas. In this paper, we evaluate the leading role of the daily volatility of two major financial variables, namely commodity and stock prices, in their ability to anticipate the output growth. For this purpose, we propose an extended MIDAS model that allows the forecasting of the quarterly output growth rate using exogenous variables sampled at various high…
On the Link Between Volatility and Growth
2011
A model of growth with endogenous innovation and distortionary taxes is presented. Since innovation is the only source of volatility, any variable that influences innovation directly affects volatility and growth. This joint endogeneity is illustrated by working out the effects through which economies with different tax levels differ in their volatility and growth process. We obtain analytical measures of macro volatility based on cyclical output and on output growth rates for plausible parametric restrictions. This analysis implies that controls for taxes should be included in the standard growth-volatility regressions. Our estimates show that the conventional Ramey-Ramey coefficient is af…