Search results for "050207 economics"
showing 10 items of 1015 documents
A Dynamic Analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 Indices Under Different Exchange Rates
2017
The persistence analysis of short- and long-term interaction and causality in the international financial markets is a key issue for policy makers and portfolio investors. This paper assesses the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets over the period of 1980--2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the ti…
Early warning of systemic risk in global banking: eigen-pair R number for financial contagion and market price-based methods
2021
AbstractWe analyse systemic risk in the core global banking system using a new network-based spectral eigen-pair method, which treats network failure as a dynamical system stability problem. This is compared with market price-based Systemic Risk Indexes (SRIs), viz. Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES), Delta Conditional Value-at-Risk (Delta-CoVaR), and Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk (SRISK) in a cross-border setting. Unlike paradoxical market price based risk measures, which underestimate risk during periods of asset price booms, the eigen-pair method based on bilateral balance sheet data gives early-warning of instability in terms of the tipping point that is analogou…
A Note on Laws of Motion for Aggregate Distributions
2020
I derive the law of motion for the aggregate distribution directly from the laws of motion for the individuals’ states. By relying on concepts from measure theory, the derivation is concise and intuitive. I address random shocks both at the micro level and at the macro level. Micro-level shocks completely cancel at the aggregate level provided that a law of large numbers applies. Therefore, the law of motion for the aggregate distribution is a deterministic process in the absence of macro-level uncertainty. If there are macro-level risks, the law of motion for the aggregate distribution exhibits a stochastic component additionally. I illustrate the formalism in a model of wealth accumulatio…
The Challenges of Reforming the International Monetary System in the Post COVID-19 World
2020
Abstract The paper analyzes if the international monetary system calls for reform and whether China and the renminbi will play a decisive role in the post COVID-19 world. It also evaluates the main scenarios and trends that is being discussed since the global crisis – selecting the relevant authors, journals, institutions and opinions – examines present conditions and tries to extrapolate into future trends. Opting for a nontechnical approach, the article could be a good insight into the international monetary system, for academics, non-experts and policy makers. The paper concludes that if the 2008 crisis has induced the growth of the China role in the international monetary governance and…
Romanian Equity Investments and Currency Risk: A Euro-Based Perspective
2021
Abstract This paper assesses the benefits and risks of international investments made on the Romanian stock market, from the perspective of euro-based investors. We investigate the contribution of exchange rate volatility to the total risk of these investments over a period of nine years, between January 2011 and December 2019, by using monthly values for the exchange rate between the Romanian leu and Euro and monthly values of the Romanian stock index. Our findings indicate that, on average, Romanian leu depreciated against euro, causing currency losses for the euro-based investor, counterbalanced by the Romanian index mean return, higher than euro countries index mean return during the pe…
Stock Volatility Predictability in Bull and Bear Markets
2020
Recent literature on stock return predictability suggests that it varies substantially across economic states being strongest during bad economic times. In line with this evidence, we document that stock volatility predictability is also state dependent. In particular, using a large data set of high-frequency data on individual stocks and a few popular time-series volatility models, in this paper we comprehensively examine how volatility forecastability varies across bull and bear states of the stock market. We find that the volatility forecast horizon is substantially longer when the market is in a bear state than when it is in a bull state. In addition, the volatility forecast accuracy is…
A Framework to Measure Intellectual Capital
2016
New technologies have changed the structure of companies shifting the focus of creating value from material resources to intangibles. The competitive advantage is increasingly reliant on the presence of specific intangibles such as knowledge, experience, communication skills that are the main source of competitive advantage. Among the intangibles based on knowledge, intellectual capital certainly occupies a prominent place. In recent years the increasing complexity that characterized the business management influenced companies to adopt new models of reporting and accounting, taking into account issues and intangible factors not considered so far with the right attention. The objective of t…
Loan loss provisions. A study by economic cycles
2017
Este trabajo estudia los determinantes de las dotaciones para provisiones del deterioro de los créditos en las entidades de crédito españolas desde 1983 al segundo trimestre de 2013. Resultan significativos, además de la morosidad, las provisiones genéricas, el margen de interés, la estacionalidad centrada en el cuarto trimestre y los periodos de crisis. Al ser un periodo extenso se estudian cómo actúan los determinantes en cada uno de los 4 ciclos económicos que se han dado. Se encuentran similitudes importantes en los periodos de crisis y en los periodos de crecimiento, junto a las singularidades de los propios ciclos. Las aportaciones de esta investigación son: i) el diferente comportami…
Revolving doors: are they valued in the Spanish stock market?
2016
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of political connections in the value of companies listed on the Spanish stock market. Design/methodology/approach The authors study two issues on this topic: the impact on the company value of the appointment as director of an ex-politician through an event study; and the long run stock market performance of companies with political connections. The authors employ a sample of listed firms in the Spanish stock market for which the authors collected data about their political connections. The authors perform the study during a wide period (1996-2011), comprising four legislatures. Findings The results show that from the market persp…
COVID-19 Crisis - A Test for European Union’s Solidarity
2020
Abstract The crises the European Union has gone through over time have called into question the Union’s legitimacy and efficiency. The 2008-2009 financial crisis, the European debt crisis, the migration crisis and Brexit, have all tested the solidarity between member states. The COVID-19 pandemic is without a doubt the most drastic crisis in the EU’s history, with very severe socioeconomic consequences. The EU leaders were strongly criticized for not reacting quickly and efficiently enough to mitigate the impact of the virus, reduce suffering, and ward off the economic crisis. In this context, the questions that arise are: Is the Union a modern-day Titanic? Will it sink or it will sustain i…