Search results for "ARDS"

Opportunities and challenges of combined effect measures based on prioritized outcomes

2013

Many authors have proposed different approaches to combine multiple endpoints in a univariate outcome measure in the literature. In case of binary or time-to-event variables, composite endpoints, which combine several event types within a single event or time-to-first-event analysis are often used to assess the overall treatment effect. A main drawback of this approach is that the interpretation of the composite effect can be difficult as a negative effect in one component can be masked by a positive effect in another. Recently, some authors proposed more general approaches based on a priority ranking of outcomes, which moreover allow to combine outcome variables of different scale levels. …

Sample size planning for survival prediction with focus on high-dimensional data

2011

Sample size planning should reflect the primary objective of a trial. If the primary objective is prediction, the sample size determination should focus on prediction accuracy instead of power. We present formulas for the determination of training set sample size for survival prediction. Sample size is chosen to control the difference between optimal and expected prediction error. Prediction is carried out by Cox proportional hazards models. The general approach considers censoring as well as low-dimensional and high-dimensional explanatory variables. For dimension reduction in the high-dimensional setting, a variable selection step is inserted. If not all informative variables are included…

Bayesian regularization for flexible baseline hazard functions in Cox survival models.

2019

Fully Bayesian methods for Cox models specify a model for the baseline hazard function. Parametric approaches generally provide monotone estimations. Semi-parametric choices allow for more flexible patterns but they can suffer from overfitting and instability. Regularization methods through prior distributions with correlated structures usually give reasonable answers to these types of situations. We discuss Bayesian regularization for Cox survival models defined via flexible baseline hazards specified by a mixture of piecewise constant functions and by a cubic B-spline function. For those "semi-parametric" proposals, different prior scenarios ranging from prior independence to particular c…

Bayesian joint ordinal and survival modeling for breast cancer risk assessment

2016

We propose a joint model to analyze the structure and intensity of the association between longitudinal measurements of an ordinal marker and time to a relevant event. The longitudinal process is defined in terms of a proportional-odds cumulative logit model. Time-to-event is modeled through a left-truncated proportionalhazards model, which incorporates information of the longitudinal marker as well as baseline covariates. Both longitudinal and survival processes are connected by means of a common vector of random effects. General inferences are discussed under the Bayesian approach and include the posterior distribution of the probabilities associated to each longitudinal category and the …

Generating survival times to simulate Cox proportional hazards models by Ralf Bender, Thomas Augustin and Maria Blettner,Statistics in Medicine 2005;…

2006

Large deviations results for subexponential tails, with applications to insurance risk

1996

AbstractConsider a random walk or Lévy process {St} and let τ(u) = inf {t⩾0 : St > u}, P(u)(·) = P(· | τ(u) < ∞). Assuming that the upwards jumps are heavy-tailed, say subexponential (e.g. Pareto, Weibull or lognormal), the asymptotic form of the P(u)-distribution of the process {St} up to time τ(u) is described as u → ∞. Essentially, the results confirm the folklore that level crossing occurs as result of one big jump. Particular sharp conclusions are obtained for downwards skip-free processes like the classical compound Poisson insurance risk process where the formulation is in terms of total variation convergence. The ideas of the proof involve excursions and path decompositions for Mark…

A weighted combined effect measure for the analysis of a composite time-to-first-event endpoint with components of different clinical relevance

2018

Composite endpoints combine several events within a single variable, which increases the number of expected events and is thereby meant to increase the power. However, the interpretation of results can be difficult as the observed effect for the composite does not necessarily reflect the effects for the components, which may be of different magnitude or even point in adverse directions. Moreover, in clinical applications, the event types are often of different clinical relevance, which also complicates the interpretation of the composite effect. The common effect measure for composite endpoints is the all-cause hazard ratio, which gives equal weight to all events irrespective of their type …

Generating survival times to simulate Cox proportional hazards models

2005

Simulation studies present an important statistical tool to investigate the performance, properties and adequacy of statistical models in pre-specified situations. One of the most important statistical models in medical research is the proportional hazards model of Cox. In this paper, techniques to generate survival times for simulation studies regarding Cox proportional hazards models are presented. A general formula describing the relation between the hazard and the corresponding survival time of the Cox model is derived, which is useful in simulation studies. It is shown how the exponential, the Weibull and the Gompertz distribution can be applied to generate appropriate survival times f…

Using Statistical and Computer Models to Quantify Volcanic Hazards

2009

Risk assessment of rare natural hazards, such as large volcanic block and ash or pyroclastic flows, is addressed. Assessment is approached through a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling, and extreme-event probability computation. A computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical modeling of the available data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive. The solution instead requires a combination of adaptive design of computer model approximation…

PROBABILISTIC QUANTIFICATION OF HAZARDS: A METHODOLOGY USING SMALL ENSEMBLES OF PHYSICS-BASED SIMULATIONS AND STATISTICAL SURROGATES

2015

This paper presents a novel approach to assessing the hazard threat to a locale due to a large volcanic avalanche. The methodology combines: (i) mathematical modeling of volcanic mass flows; (ii) field data of avalanche frequency, volume, and runout; (iii) large-scale numerical simulations of flow events; (iv) use of statistical methods to minimize computational costs, and to capture unlikely events; (v) calculation of the probability of a catastrophic flow event over the next T years at a location of interest; and (vi) innovative computational methodology to implement these methods. This unified presentation collects elements that have been separately developed, and incorporates new contri…