Search results for "Autor"

Local bandwidth selection for kernel density estimation in a bifurcating Markov chain model

2020

International audience; We propose an adaptive estimator for the stationary distribution of a bifurcating Markov Chain onRd. Bifurcating Markov chains (BMC for short) are a class of stochastic processes indexed by regular binary trees. A kernel estimator is proposed whose bandwidths are selected by a method inspired by the works of Goldenshluger and Lepski [(2011), 'Bandwidth Selection in Kernel Density Estimation: Oracle Inequalities and Adaptive Minimax Optimality',The Annals of Statistics3: 1608-1632). Drawing inspiration from dimension jump methods for model selection, we also provide an algorithm to select the best constant in the penalty. Finally, we investigate the performance of the…

Gaussian component mixtures and CAR models in Bayesian disease mapping

2012

Hierarchical Bayesian models involving conditional autoregression (CAR) components are commonly used in disease mapping. An alternative model to the proper or improper CAR is the Gaussian component mixture (GCM) model. A review of CAR and GCM models is provided in univariate settings where only one disease is considered, and also in multivariate situations where in addition to the spatial dependence between regions, the dependence among multiple diseases is analyzed. A performance comparison between models using a set of simulated data to help illustrate their respective properties is reported. The results show that both in univariate and multivariate settings, both models perform in a comp…

Hitting Time Distributions in Financial Markets

2006

We analyze the hitting time distributions of stock price returns in different time windows, characterized by different levels of noise present in the market. The study has been performed on two sets of data from US markets. The first one is composed by daily price of 1071 stocks trade for the 12-year period 1987-1998, the second one is composed by high frequency data for 100 stocks for the 4-year period 1995-1998. We compare the probability distribution obtained by our empirical analysis with those obtained from different models for stock market evolution. Specifically by focusing on the statistical properties of the hitting times to reach a barrier or a given threshold, we compare the prob…

Dynamics of a financial market index after a crash

2002

We discuss the statistical properties of index returns in a financial market just after a major market crash. The observed non-stationary behavior of index returns is characterized in terms of the exceedances over a given threshold. This characterization is analogous to the Omori law originally observed in geophysics. By performing numerical simulations and theoretical modelling, we show that the nonlinear behavior observed in real market crashes cannot be described by a GARCH(1,1) model. We also show that the time evolution of the Value at Risk observed just after a major crash is described by a power-law function lacking a typical scale.

A PHASE TRANSITION FOR LARGE VALUES OF BIFURCATING AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS

2019

We describe the asymptotic behavior of the number $$Z_n[a_n,\infty )$$ of individuals with a large value in a stable bifurcating autoregressive process, where $$a_n\rightarrow \infty $$ . The study of the associated first moment is equivalent to the annealed large deviation problem of an autoregressive process in a random environment. The trajectorial behavior of $$Z_n[a_n,\infty )$$ is obtained by the study of the ancestral paths corresponding to the large deviation event together with the environment of the process. This study of large deviations of autoregressive processes in random environment is of independent interest and achieved first. The estimates for bifurcating autoregressive pr…

Outlier detection with automatic modelling: TRAMO/SEATS versus X-12-ARIMA

2012

Tests for real and complex unit roots in vector autoregressive models

2014

The article proposes new tests for the number of real and complex unit roots in vector autoregressive models. The tests are based on the eigenvalues of the sample companion matrix. The limiting distributions of the eigenvalues converging to the unit eigenvalues turn out to be of a non-standard form and expressible in terms of Brownian motions. The tests are defined such that the null distributions related to eigenvalues +/-1 are the same. The tests for the unit eigenvalues with nonzero imaginary part are defined independently of the angular frequency. When the tests are adjusted for deterministic terms, the null distributions usually change. Critical values are tabulated via simulations. Al…

Dynamic copula models for the spark spread

2011

We propose a non-symmetric copula to model the evolution of electricity and gas prices by a bivariate non-Gaussian autoregressive process. We identify the marginal dynamics as driven by normal inverse Gaussian processes, estimating them from a series of observed UK electricity and gas spot data. We estimate the copula by modeling the difference between the empirical copula and the independent copula. We then simulate the joint process and price options written on the spark spread. We find that option prices are significantly influenced by the copula and the marginal distributions, along with the seasonality of the underlying prices.

Digital generation of multivariate wind field processes

2001

Abstract A very efficient procedure for the generation of multivariate wind velocity stochastic processes by wave superposition as well as autoregressive time series is proposed in this paper. The procedure starts by decomposing the wind velocity field into a summation of fully coherent independent vector processes using the frequency dependent eigenvectors of the Power Spectral Density matrix. It is shown that the application of the method allows to show some very interesting physical properties that allow to reduce drastically the computational effort. Moreover, using a standard finite element procedure for approximating the frequency dependent eigenvectors, the generation procedure requi…

Stochastic analysis of motorcycle dynamics

2011

Off-road and racing motorcycles require a particular setup of the suspensions to improve the comfort and the safety of the rider, maintaining a continuous contact between the road and the motorcycle (by means of the tires). Further, because of the ground roughness, in the case of offroad motorcycle, suspensions usually experience extreme and erratic excursions (suspension stroke) in performing their function. In this regard, the adoption of nonlinear devices can, perhaps, limit both the acceleration experienced by the sprung mass and the excursions of the suspensions. This leads to the consideration of asymmetric nonlinearly-behaving suspensions. This option, however, induces the difficulty…