Search results for "BAYESIAN"
showing 10 items of 604 documents
Symptoms and the body: Taking the inferential leap
2017
The relationship between the conscious experience of physical symptoms and indicators of objective physiological dysfunction is highly variable and depends on characteristics of the person, the context and their interaction. This relationship often breaks down entirely in the case of "medically unexplained" or functional somatic symptoms, violating the basic assumption in medicine that physical symptoms have physiological causes. In this paper, we describe the prevailing theoretical approach to this problem and review the evidence pertaining to it. We then use the framework of predictive coding to propose a new and more comprehensive model of the body-symptom relationship that integrates ex…
Approximate Bayesian Computation for Forecasting in Hydrological models
2018
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a statistical tool for handling parameter inference in a range of challenging statistical problems, mostly characterized by an intractable likelihood function. In this paper, we focus on the application of ABC to hydrological models, not as a tool for parametric inference, but as a mechanism for generating probabilistic forecasts. This mechanism is referred as Approximate Bayesian Forecasting (ABF). The abcd water balance model is applied to a case study on Aipe river basin in Columbia to demonstrate the applicability of ABF. The predictivity of the ABF is compared with the predictivity of the MCMC algorithm. The results show that the ABF method as …
Distribuciones previas objetivas para el modelo Dirichlet-multinomial: una aplicación en la agricultura
2015
La chufa, Cyperus sculentus, es un tubérculo que se utiliza principalmente para la elaboración de horchata. Se cultiva en la comarca de l'Horta Nord, en Valencia, y tiene una gran importancia socioeconómica en la zona. La mancha negra en los tubérculos de chufa es una enfermedad de origen desconocido, que produce un ennegrecimiento de la piel que conlleva a su depreciación comercial, pues un cierto porcentaje de tubérculos deben ser desechados para su venta. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar si la selección de tubérculos sin mancha negra, para su utilización como simiente, supone una mejora en la cosecha en cuanto a una menor incidencia de la enfermedad. Los datos analizados proceden …
Bayesian applications in dynamic econometric models
2009
The purpose of this thesis is to provide a few new ideas to the field of Bayesian econometrics. In particular, the focus of the thesis is on analyzing dynamic econometric models. In the first essay, we provide an easily implementable method for the Bayesian analysis of a simple hybrid DSGE model of Clarida et al. (1999). The forecasting properties of the model are tested against commonly used forecasting tools, such as Bayesian VARs and naïve forecasts based on univariate random walks. In particular, the predictability of three key macroeconomic-variables, inflation, short-term nominal interest rate and a measure of output gap, are studied using quarterly ex post and real-time U.S. data.Our…
MAVIE-Lab Sports: a mHealth for Injury Prevention and Risk Management in Sport
2018
International audience; Smart-phones technology and the development of mHealth (Mobile Health) applications offer an opportunity to design intervention tools to influence health behavior changes. The MAVIE-Lab is a mHealth application including a DSS (Desicion Support System) to assist in the personalized evaluation of HLIs (Home, Leisure and Sport Injuries) risk and to promote the adoption of prevention measures. MAVIE-Lab Sports will be the first module of the mobile application. The purpose of this PhD project is to improve a particular module of MAVIE-Lab, devoted to sports (MAVIE-Lab Sports), in different aspects: statistical modeling, design and ergonomics. It also aims to evaluate sy…
CiliaCarta: An integrated and validated compendium of ciliary genes
2019
The cilium is an essential organelle at the surface of mammalian cells whose dysfunction causes a wide range of genetic diseases collectively called ciliopathies. The current rate at which new ciliopathy genes are identified suggests that many ciliary components remain undiscovered. We generated and rigorously analyzed genomic, proteomic, transcriptomic and evolutionary data and systematically integrated these using Bayesian statistics into a predictive score for ciliary function. This resulted in 285 candidate ciliary genes. We generated independent experimental evidence of ciliary associations for 24 out of 36 analyzed candidate proteins using multiple cell and animal model systems (mouse…
A Context-Aware System for Ambient Assisted Living
2017
In the near future, the world's population will be characterized by an increasing average age, and consequently, the number of people requiring for a special household assistance will dramatically rise. In this scenario, smart homes will significantly help users to increase their quality of life, while maintaining a great level of autonomy. This paper presents a system for Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) capable of understanding context and user's behavior by exploiting data gathered by a pervasive sensor network. The knowledge inferred by adopting a Bayesian knowledge extraction approach is exploited to disambiguate the collected observations, making the AAL system able to detect and predict…
An Ambient Intelligence System for Assisted Living
2017
Nowadays, the population's average age is constantly increasing, and thus the need for specialized home assistance is on the rise. Smart homes especially tailored to meet elderly and disabled people's needs can help them maintaining their autonomy, whilst ensuring their safety and well-being. This paper proposes a complete context-aware system for Ambient Assisted Living (AAL), which infers user's actions and context, analyzing its past and current behavior to detect anomalies and prevent possible emergencies. The proposed system exploits Dynamic Bayesian Networks to merge raw data coming from heterogeneous sensors and infer user's behavior and health conditions. A rule-based reasoner is ab…
Evidence for spatiotemporal shift in demersal fishery management priority areas in the western Mediterranean
2022
14 pages, 10 figures, 2 tables, 1 appendix
INQUINAMENTO INDOOR DA RADON. UNA APPLICAZIONE DELLE RETI BAYESIANE A SUPPORTO DELLA DIAGNOSI
2010
Nel quadro più generale della tematica del controllo della qualità ambientale e più in particolare dell’Indoor Air Quality, la presente relazione riporta lo studio di un fenomeno di inquinamento da radon riguardante la scuola “G. Mancino” di Palermo. Lo spunto viene offerto dal fatto che nel 2005, nel corso di un monitoraggio della radioattività ambientale di Palermo, i tecnici dell’ARPA Sicilia hanno rilevato in questa scuola elementare degli anni ’30, livelli di radon indoor molto superiori ai limiti di legge fissati dal D.Lgs. 241/2000. Nella prima fase, dopo lo studio delle caratteristiche tipologiche e costruttive del plesso e l’acquisizione dei dati di misura pregressi, si è proceduto…