Search results for "Bay"

Bayesian Inference for the Exponential Power Function Parameters

2008

This paper addresses the problem of obtaining the marginal posterior distributions, via Gibbs Sampler, for the parameters of the well-known generalized error distribution called Exponential Power Function (E.P.F.). This density represents a family of unimodal symmetric distributions with shapes varying from leptokurtic to platikurtic.

Integrating the human factor in FMECA-based risk evaluation through Bayesian networks

2020

The contribution of the present paper aims to develop the traditional Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) for quantitative risk analysis from a Bayesian Network (BN)-based perspective. The main purpose of research consists in providing a framework for analysing causal relationships for risk evaluation and deriving probabilistic inference among significant risk factors. These parameters will be represented by linguistic variables and will include the human factor as a key element of analysis. Traditional approaches for risk evaluation and management performed by FMECA [1] represent helpful tools to globally enhance systems and processes conditions [2]. However, such appro…

Commentary: Rational Adaptation in Lexical Prediction: The Influence of Prediction Strength

2021

A Bayesian approach for predictive maintenance policy with imperfect monitoring

2009

In the traditional preventive maintenance policy, the periodic maintenance activities are scheduled on the basis of the a-priori information about the failure behaviour of the population which the component belongs to, by assuming a probability distribution function and by estimating the involved statistical parameters. On the contrary, with the predictive approach, the maintenance activity is scheduled on the basis of the real degradation level of the component. So, it is possible to reduce the failure probability and, at the same time, to use the component for almost all its useful life. For this reason, the predictive maintenance policy makes possible the reduction of the maintenance cos…

Medical news aggregation and ranking of taking into account the user needs

2019

The purpose of this work is to develop an intelligent information system that is designed for aggregation and ranking of news taking into account the needs of the user. The online market for mass media and the needs of readers, the purpose of their searches and moments is not enough to find the news is analyzed. A conceptual model of the information aggression system and ranking of news that would enable presentation of the work of the future intellectual information system, to show its structure is constructed. The methods and means for implementation of the intellectual information system are selected. An online resource for aggregation and ranking of news, news feeds and flexible setting…

What can chromosomes tell us about the origins of primates?

2010

What can chromosomes tell us about the origins of primates? Barbara Picone1, Luca Sineo1, Daniele Silvestro2,3, Massimiliano DelPero4 and Judith Masters5 1 Dipartimento di Biologia Animale “G. Reverberi”, Università degli Studi di Palermo, Via Archirafi 18, 90123 Palermo, Italy; 2 Senckenberg Research Institute, Frankfurt am Main, Germany ; 3 Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany;4 Dipartimento di Biologia Animale e dell’Uomo, Università degli Studi di Torino, Via Accademia Albertina 13, 10124 Torino, Italy; 5Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Fort Hare, Private Bag X1314, Alice 5700, South Africa; Our study investigated the usefulness…

The influence of the prior distribution on the uncertainty analysis assessment of an urban drainage stormwater quality model

2009

Bayesian Methodology in Statistics

2009

Bayesian methods provide a complete paradigm for statistical inference under uncertainty. These may be derived from an axiomatic system and provide a coherent methodology which makes it possible to incorporate relevant initial information, and which solves many of the difficulties that frequentist methods are known to face. If no prior information is to be assumed, the more frequent situation met in scientific reporting, a formal initial prior function, the reference prior, mathematically derived from the assumed model, is used; this leads to objective Bayesian methods, objective in the precise sense that their results, like frequentist results, only depend on the assumed model and the data…

M.J. (Susie) Bayarri

2021

Finding Prediction Limits for a Future Number of Failures in the Prescribed Time Interval under Parametric Uncertainty

2012

Computing prediction intervals is an important part of the forecasting process intended to indicate the likely uncertainty in point forecasts. Prediction intervals for future order statistics are widely used for reliability problems and other related problems. In this paper, we present an accurate procedure, called ‘within-sample prediction of order statistics', to obtain prediction limits for the number of failures that will be observed in a future inspection of a sample of units, based only on the results of the first in-service inspection of the same sample. The failure-time of such units is modeled with a two-parameter Weibull distribution indexed by scale and shape parameters β and δ, …