Search results for "Bay"
showing 10 items of 1187 documents
Seed Activation Scheduling for Influence Maximization in Social Networks
2018
This paper addresses the challenge of strategically maximizing the influence spread in a social network, by exploiting cascade propagators termed “seeds”. It introduces the Seed Activation Scheduling Problem (SASP) that chooses the timing of seed activation under a given budget, over a given time horizon, in the presence/absence of competition. The SASP is framed as a blogger-centric marketing problem on a two-level network, where the decisions are made to buy sponsored posts from prominent bloggers at calculated points in time. A Bayesian evidence diffusion model – the Partial Parallel Cascade (PPC) model – allows the network nodes to be partially activated, proportional to their accumulat…
Obtaining the best value for money in adaptive sequential estimation
2010
Abstract In [Kujala, J. V., Richardson, U., & Lyytinen, H. (2010). A Bayesian-optimal principle for learner-friendly adaptation in learning games. Journal of Mathematical Psychology , 54(2), 247–255], we considered an extension of the conventional Bayesian adaptive estimation framework to situations where each observable variable is associated with a certain random cost of observation. We proposed an algorithm that chooses each placement by maximizing the expected gain in utility divided by the expected cost. In this paper, we formally justify this placement rule as an asymptotically optimal solution to the problem of maximizing the expected utility of an experiment that terminates when the…
Simulated Annealing in Bayesian Decision Theory
1992
Since the seminal paper by Kirkpatrick, Gelatt and Vechhi (1983), a number of papers in the scientific literature refer to simulated annealing as a powerful random optimization method which promises to deliver, within reasonable computing times, optimal or nearly optimal solutions to complex decision problems hitherto forbidding. The algorithm, which uses the physical process of annealing as a metaphor, is special in that, at each iteration, one may move with positive probability to solutions with higher values of the function to minimize, rather than directly jumping to the point with the smallest value within the neighborhood, thus drastically reducing the chances of getting trapped in lo…
Bayesian calibration of the nitrous oxide emission module of an agro-ecosystem model
2008
1. NitroEurope Open Science Conference on Reactive Nitrogen and the European Greenhouse Gas Balance ; Ghent (Belgique) - (2008-02-20 - 2008-02-21) / Conférence; Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the main biogenic greenhouse gas contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate therefore requires a capacity to predict N2O emissions in relation to environmental conditions and crop management. Biophysical models simulating the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in agro-ecosystems have a unique potential to explore these relationships, but are fraught with high uncertainties in their parameters due to their variations over time and space. H…
Ranking of Brain Tumour Classifiers Using a Bayesian Approach
2009
This study presents a ranking for classifers using a Bayesian perspective. This ranking framework is able to evaluate the performance of the models to be compared when they are inferred from different sets of data. It also takes into account the performance obtained on samples not used during the training of the classifiers. Besides, this ranking assigns a prior to each model based on a measure of similarity of the training data to a test case. An evaluation consisting of ranking brain tumour classifiers is presented. These multilayer perceptron classifiers are trained with 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) signals following a multiproject multicenter evaluation approach. We demonstr…
Search strategies for ensemble feature selection in medical diagnostics
2003
The goal of this paper is to propose, evaluate, and compare four search strategies for ensemble feature selection, and to consider their application to medical diagnostics, with a focus on the problem of the classification of acute abdominal pain. Ensembles of learnt models constitute one of the main current directions in machine learning and data mining. Ensembles allow us to get higher accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, which are often not achievable with single models. One technique, which proved to be effective for ensemble construction, is feature selection. Lately, several strategies for ensemble feature selection were proposed, including random subspacing, hill-climbing-based se…
Birth of the Biscane
2017
This paper describes the unprecedented storm Stephanie, which exhibited tropical characteristics over the Bay of Biscay on 15 September 2016. Remote sensing observations reveal a cloud-free area surrounded by a circular precipitation pattern and an axisymmetric wind field, while buoy observations show an abrupt drop in wind speed during the passage of the storm centre. Model analysis further corroborates an ongoing tropical transition from a frontal cold-core to a symmetric warm-core system. By analogy with ‘Medicanes’ (Mediterranean hurricanes), we name this storm a ‘Biscane’ (Biscay hurricane). Weather systems of this kind may become more frequent in a warmer climate.
Temporal and spatial diversification of the African disjunct genus Androcymbium (Colchicaceae)
2009
Abstract The genus Androcymbium (Colchicaceae) includes 57 species that are distributed in the extreme northern and southern portions of Africa, mainly in regions with a Mediterranean climate. We present the first phylogeographic analysis of the genus with species from all five of its distribution areas (North Africa, Horn of Africa, Namibia, western South Africa, and eastern South Africa). We used sequence data from six chloroplast regions and one nuclear region. Phylogeographic reconstructions were conducted using both parsimony and Bayesian inference methods. Molecular dating estimates using a Bayesian approach suggest a middle Miocene (13.4 ± 1.5 mya) origin of the genus; this approach …
A Bayesian Approach for Timing the Neolithization in Mediterranean Iberia
2017
AbstractIn this paper, we compile recent14C dates related to the Neolithic transition in Mediterranean Iberia and present a Bayesian chronological approach for testing thedual model, a mixed model proposed to explain the spread of farming and husbandry processes in eastern Iberia. The dual model postulates the coexistence of agricultural pioneers and indigenous Mesolithic foraging groups in the Middle Holocene. We test this general model with more regional models of four geographical areas (Northeast, Upper, and Middle Ebro Valley, and Eastern and South/Southeastern regions) and present a filtered summed probability of all14C dates known in the region in order to compare socioecological dyn…
The sea–air exchange of mercury (Hg) in the marine boundary layer of the Augusta basin (southern Italy): Concentrations and evasion flux
2013
Abstract The first attempt to systematically investigate the atmospheric mercury (Hg) in the MBL of the Augusta basin (SE Sicily, Italy) has been undertaken. In the past the basin was the receptor for Hg from an intense industrial activity which contaminated the bottom sediments of the Bay, making this area a potential source of pollution for the surrounding Mediterranean. Three oceanographic cruises have been thus performed in the basin during the winter and summer 2011/2012, where we estimated averaged Hg atm concentrations of about 1.5 ± 0.4 (range 0.9–3.1) and 2.1 ± 0.98 (range 1.1–3.1) ng m −3 for the two seasons, respectively. These data are somewhat higher than the background Hg atm …