Search results for "Bay"
showing 10 items of 1187 documents
Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted Average Least Squares: Equivariance, Stability, and Numerical Issues
2011
This article is concerned with the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) estimator and the Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) estimator developed by Magnus et al. (2010). Unlike standard pretest estimators which are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Special emphasis is given to a number pra…
Molecular phylogeny of the harvestmen genus Sabacon (Arachnida: Opiliones: Dyspnoi) reveals multiple Eocene–Oligocene intercontinental dispersal even…
2012
Abstract We investigated the phylogeny and biogeographic history of the Holarctic harvestmen genus Sabacon , which shows an intercontinental disjunct distribution and is presumed to be a relatively old taxon. Molecular phylogenetic relationships of Sabacon were estimated using multiple gene regions and Bayesian inference for a comprehensive Sabacon sample. Molecular clock analyses, using relaxed clock models implemented in BEAST, are applied to date divergence events. Biogeographic scenarios utilizing S-DIVA and Lagrange C++ are reconstructed over sets of Bayesian trees, allowing for the incorporation of phylogenetic uncertainty and quantification of alternative reconstructions over time. F…
Glutathione Conjugation of Bay- and Fjord-Region Diol Epoxides of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons by Glutathione Transferases M1-1 and P1-1
1997
Metabolism of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in mammalian cells results in the formation of vicinal diol epoxides considered as ultimate carcinogens if the oxirane ring is located in a bay- or fjord-region of the parent compound. In the present study, individual stereoisomers of the bay-region diol epoxides of chrysene, dibenz[a,h]anthracene, and benzo[a]pyrene as well as of the fjord-region diol epoxides of benzo[c]phenanthrene, benzo[c]chrysene, and benzo[g]-chrysene have been incubated with GSH in the presence of human glutathione transferases GSTM1-1 (a mu-class enzyme) and GSTP1-1 (a pi-class enzyme). As previously shown with GSTA1-1 (an alpha-class enzyme) both M1-1 and P1-1 demonst…
Epidemiology of Multiple Sclerosis en France
2012
In Europe, France is located between high and low risk areas of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). We estimated the national prevalence of MS in France on 31st October 2004 and the incidence between 2000 and 2007 based on data from the ‘Caisse Nationale d’Assurance Maladie des Travailleurs Salariés’ which insures 87% of the population. MS like other chronic diseases is one of the 30 long-term illnesses (Affections de Longue Durée, ALD). We analysed geographic variations in the prevalence and incidence of MS in France using the Bayesian approach.Total MS prevalence in France standardised for age was 94.7 per 100,000; 130.5 in women; 54.8 in men. The notification rate for MS (2000-2007) after age-stand…
Importance sampling type estimators based on approximate marginal Markov chain Monte Carlo
2020
We consider importance sampling (IS) type weighted estimators based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) targeting an approximate marginal of the target distribution. In the context of Bayesian latent variable models, the MCMC typically operates on the hyperparameters, and the subsequent weighting may be based on IS or sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), but allows for multilevel techniques as well. The IS approach provides a natural alternative to delayed acceptance (DA) pseudo-marginal/particle MCMC, and has many advantages over DA, including a straightforward parallelisation and additional flexibility in MCMC implementation. We detail minimal conditions which ensure strong consistency of the sug…
Yliopistotutkintojen määrän ennustaminen Bayes-mallilla
2017
Tämän tutkielman tarkoituksena on kehittää prediktiivinen malli, jolla ennustetaan Jyväskylän yliopiston matemaattis-luonnontieteellisessä tiedekunnassa lähivuosina suoritettavien luonnontieteiden kandidaatin ja filosofian maisterin tutkintojen lukumääriä. Mallin estimointiin käytettävä aineisto koostuu kolmesta osasta: vuosina 1996–2004 tiedekunnassa aloittaneet opiskelijat, vuosina 2005–2015 tiedekunnassa alemmasta korkeakoulututkinnosta aloittaneet opiskelijat ja vuosina 2005–2016 tiedekunnassa ylemmästä korkeakoulututkinnosta aloittaneet opiskelijat. Jokaiselle aineiston osalle sovitetaan omat toisistaan riippumattomat osamallit. Tutkintoennusteet saadaan ennustamalla aineistoon kuuluvi…
L'incertezza inSegna
2015
Traendo spunto dalla manifestazione scientifica Esperienza inSegna, dal titolo Certo è. . . probabile, svoltasi a Palermo nel 2014, in questo lavoro dapprima sono richiamati alcuni problemi che diedero la nascita al calcolo delle probabilità e successivamente vengono analizzati due problemi popolari di probabilità che normalmente sono oggetto di dibattito soprattutto tra i non addetti al settore: “Monty Hall” e il “Gratta e Vinci”. Nel primo si mostra l’importanza di tradurre correttamente, in termini di evento condizionante, l’informazione acquisita quando si vogliono “aggiornare” le probabilità; nel secondo si mette in guardia il lettore di fronte agli spot televisivi che annunciano vinci…
: Noeud visuel, site monastique, production d'image
2018
Le manuscrit 1 conservé à la Bibliothèque municipale de Semur est l’un des plus anciens manuscrits conservés en Bourgogne, sinon le plus ancien, pour les uns à dater autour de l’an mil, pour les autres à rattacher, vers la même époque, au grand mouvement des « abbés réformateurs » et aux livrets hagio-liturgiques de prestige. C’est un recueil composite, de 260 mm par 207, comprenant 78 feuillets réunis en cahiers, et provenant de l’abbaye de Saint-Jean de Réôme (Moutiers-Saint-Jean), en Côte-d’Or. Les différentes pièces qui le composent furent probablement réalisées entre le Xe et le XVe siècle ; la reliure en carton date de 1834.Au fil de son histoire, au cours des différentes étapes de sa…
Saint-Évroult-Notre-Dame-du-Bois (61), La salle capitulaire de l'abbaye
2015
Du XIIe au XXe siècle, une fresque historique à reconstituer à l’abbaye de Noirlac (Cher)
2022
La politique de prescription menée depuis la fin des années 2000 vise à mettre en cohérence l’apport de nombreuses décennies de recherche archéologique (fouilles anciennes puis préventives) sur un site emblématique. Les perspectives étaient triples : disposer de l’ensemble des éléments de décision pour accompagner le projet d’aménagement paysager ; valoriser l’apport de l’archéologie à la connaissance de Noirlac ; penser un outil pouvant orienter la réflexion sur les aménagements futurs.