Search results for "Bayes"
showing 10 items of 847 documents
A New Method to Reconstruct Quantitative Food Webs and Nutrient Flows from Isotope Tracer Addition Experiments
2020
Understanding how nutrients flow through food webs is central in ecosystem ecology. Tracer addition experiments are powerful tools to reconstruct nutrient flows by adding an isotopically enriched element into an ecosystem and tracking its fate through time. Historically, the design and analysis of tracer studies have varied widely, ranging from descriptive studies to modeling approaches of varying complexity. Increasingly, isotope tracer data are being used to compare ecosystems and analyze experimental manipulations. Currently, a formal statistical framework for analyzing such experiments is lacking, making it impossible to calculate the estimation errors associated with the model fit, the…
High‐resolution 3D forest structure explains ecomorphological trait variation in assemblages of saproxylic beetles
2022
1. Climate, topography and the 3D structure of forests are major drivers affecting local species communities. However, little is known about how the specific functional traits of saproxylic (wood-living) beetles, involved in the recycling of wood, might be affected by those environmental characteristics. 2. Here, we combine ecological and morphological traits available for saproxylic beetles and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data in Bayesian trait-based joint species distribution models to study how traits drive the distributions of more than 230 species in temperate forests of Europe. 3. We found that elevation (as a proxy for temperature and precipitation) and the proportion of conifers p…
Tratamiento bayesiano de valores ausentes en datos espacio-temporales
2015
Con frecuencia en estadística se tiene que hacer frente a la presencia de valores ausentes en el conjunto de datos sobre el que se desea realizar un análisis estadístico. La existencia de valores ausentes no sólo implica una mayor complejidad asociada al análisis sino que también introduce mayor incertidumbre en el estudio. Este hecho puede derivar en posibles sesgos en los resultados finales y, por tanto, cuestionar la fiabilidad en las conclusiones que de estos se deriven, por lo que la existencia de valores ausentes puede llegar a representar un serio problema si su tratamiento no es el adecuado. No es de extrañar entonces, la innumerable cantidad de publicaciones existentes asociadas al…
Conectando con el pasado. Redes sociales en la Prehistoria Reciente
2022
Las redes sociales virtuales han cambiado el modo de vida de la humanidad. Permiten interactuar con personas de todo el planeta o difundir noticias. Sin embargo, las redes sociales no son un invento contemporáneo. Desde los orígenes de la humanidad, las redes sociales constituyen el complejo entramado sobre el que se tejen las estructuras colectivas que conforman las sociedades humanas. Esta densa trama de relaciones, que comienza a ser tejida en círculos íntimos, tiene el potencial de crecer y extenderse hasta los confines más distantes. Las estructuras de toda sociedad humana se edifican sobre esta urdimbre relacional, independientemente de su grado de complejidad. Por ello el estudio de …
The Bayesian Pursuit Algorithm: A New Family of Estimator Learning Automata
2011
Published version of a chapter in the book: Modern Approaches in Applied Intelligence. Also available from the publisher at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-21827-9_53 The fastest Learning Automata (LA) algorithms currently available come from the family of estimator algorithms. The Pursuit algorithm (PST), a pioneering scheme in the estimator family, obtains its superior learning speed by using Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimates to pursue the action currently perceived as being optimal. Recently, a Bayesian LA (BLA) was introduced, and empirical results that demonstrated its advantages over established top performers, including the PST scheme, were reported. The BLA scheme is inherently …
Causality-based Social Media Analysis for Normal Users Credibility Assessment in a Political Crisis
2019
Information trustworthiness assessment on political social media discussions is crucial to maintain the order of society, especially during emergent situations. The polarity nature of political topics and the echo chamber effect by social media platforms allow for a deceptive and a dividing environment. During a political crisis, a vast amount of information is being propagated on social media, that leads up to a high level of polarization and deception by the beneficial parties. The traditional approaches to tackling misinformation on social media usually lack a comprehensive problem definition due to its complication. This paper proposes a probabilistic graphical model as a theoretical vi…
Phylogeny, biogeography and evolution of Triglochin L. (Juncaginaceae) – Morphological diversification is linked to habitat shifts rather than to gen…
2015
A species-level phylogeny is presented for Triglochin, the largest genus of Juncaginaceae (Alismatales) comprising about 30 species of annual and perennial herbs. Triglochin has an almost cosmopolitan distribution with Australia as centre of species diversity. Trans-Atlantic and trans-African disjunctions exist in the genus. Phylogenetic analyses were conducted based on molecular data obtained from nuclear (ITS, internal transcribed spacer) and chloroplast sequence data (psbA-trnH spacer, matK gene). Based on the phylogeny of the group divergence times were estimated and ancestral distribution areas reconstructed. Our data confirm the monophyly of Triglochin and resolve relationships betwee…
Estimating finite mixtures of semi-Markov chains: an application to the segmentation of temporal sensory data
2019
Summary In food science, it is of great interest to obtain information about the temporal perception of aliments to create new products, to modify existing products or more generally to understand the mechanisms of perception. Temporal dominance of sensations is a technique to measure temporal perception which consists in choosing sequentially attributes describing a food product over tasting. This work introduces new statistical models based on finite mixtures of semi-Markov chains to describe data collected with the temporal dominance of sensations protocol, allowing different temporal perceptions for a same product within a population. The identifiability of the parameters of such mixtur…
Spatial patterns of, and environmental controls on, soil properties at a riparianepaddock interface
2012
Abstract Riparian zones are prominent features of agricultural landscapes because they are the last point to intercept nutrients and sediments before they enter water bodies. We investigated the soil properties, nutrient dynamics and vegetation composition at the riparian–agriculture interface. Soil physicochemical and vegetation properties were spatially heterogeneous along the transition from the grazed paddock into the un-grazed and revegetated riparian zone. Soil C stocks varied considerably across the site, with values ranging from 2% in the paddock to 5% in the riparian zone. Using Bayesian model selection, a predictive model for total soil carbon was developed. By including soil mois…
Model uncertainty and variable selection: an application to the modelization of FDI determinants in Europe
2019
Las últimas décadas han visto un interés cada vez mayor en la IED, y un debate creciente sobre su modelización en términos de las variables consideradas como sus determinantes, la especificación del modelo y los métodos de estimación del modelo de gravedad de la IED. Esto se debe a la incertidumbre que rodea tanto las teorías como los enfoques empíricos de la IED. Esta Tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo contribuir a la literatura mediante la investigación de las fuerzas impulsoras de las actividades de las EMNs hacia y desde los países europeos, tanto a nivel regional como nacional, abordando los problemas de selección de variables e incertidumbre del modelo que se enfrentan al modelizar la…