Search results for "Bayesian models"
showing 8 items of 18 documents
Small changes, big impacts: Geographic expansion in small-scale fisheries
2020
Abstract Small-scale fisheries are an important, yet neglected, millenarian activity that has been undergoing significant changes that threaten its future. Understanding how this activity is spatially distributed and the factors that drive its use of the marine space over time can shed some light on how fishing efforts and their impacts have moved over different parts of coastal marine ecosystems. This study investigated changes to the spatial distribution of small-scale fisheries along the Brazilian equatorial region between 1994 and 2014 and the factors, from ecological to socioeconomic, that influenced this shift. Bayesian hierarchical spatial models were used together with environmental…
Flexible Data Driven Inventory Management with Interactive Multiobjective Lot Size Optimization
2021
We study data-driven decision support and formalise a path from data to decision making. We focus on lot sizing in inventory management with stochastic demand and propose an interactive multi-objective optimisation approach. We forecast demand with a Bayesian model, which is based on sales data. After identifying relevant objectives relying on the demand model, we formulate an optimisation problem to determine lot sizes for multiple future time periods. Our approach combines different interactive multi-objective optimisation methods for finding the best balance among the objectives. For that, a decision maker with substance knowledge directs the solution process with one’s preference inform…
Evidence for spatiotemporal shift in demersal fishery management priority areas in the western Mediterranean
2022
14 pages, 10 figures, 2 tables, 1 appendix
Interaction in Spoken Word Recognition Models: Feedback Helps
2018
Human perception, cognition, and action requires fast integration of bottom-up signals with top-down knowledge and context. A key theoretical perspective in cognitive science is the interactive activation hypothesis: forward and backward flow in bidirectionally connected neural networks allows humans and other biological systems to approximate optimal integration of bottom-up and top-down information under real-world constraints. An alternative view is that online feedback is neither necessary nor helpful; purely feed forward alternatives can be constructed for any feedback system, and online feedback could not improve processing and would preclude veridical perception. In the domain of spo…
Spatio-Temporal Assessment of the European Hake (Merluccius merluccius) Recruits in the Northern Iberian Peninsula
2021
14 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables.-- This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY)
Spatial Bayesian Modeling Applied to the Surveys of Xylella fastidiosa in Alicante (Spain) and Apulia (Italy)
2020
The plant-pathogenic bacterium Xylella fastidiosa was first reported in Europe in 2013, in the province of Lecce, Italy, where extensive areas were affected by the olive quick decline syndrome, caused by the subsp. pauca. In Alicante, Spain, almond leaf scorch, caused by X. fastidiosa subsp. multiplex, was detected in 2017. The effects of climatic and spatial factors on the geographic distribution of X. fastidiosa in these two infested regions in Europe were studied. The presence/absence data of X. fastidiosa in the official surveys were analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical models through the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) methodology. Climatic covariates were obtained from …
An adaptive probabilistic approach to goal-level imitation learning
2010
Imitation learning has been recognized as a promising technique to teach robots advanced skills. It is based on the idea that robots could learn new behaviors by observing and imitating the behaviors of other skilled actors. We propose an adaptive probabilistic graphical model which copes with three core issues of any imitative behavior: observation, representation and reproduction of skills. Our model, Growing Hierarchical Dynamic Bayesian Network (GHDBN), is hierarchical (i.e. able to characterize structured behaviors at different levels of abstraction), and growing (i.e. skills are learned or updated incrementally - and at each level of abstraction - every time a new observation sequence…
Application of a Bayesian Spatiotemporal Surveillance Method to NYC Syndromic Data
2014
Incorporating prior knowledge (e.g., the spatial distribution of zip codes and background population effects) into a model using Bayesian methods could potentially improve outbreak detection. We adapted a previously described Bayesian model-based spatiotemporal surveillance technique to daily respiratory syndrome counts in NYC Emergency Department data in 2009, the year of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. Citywide, 56 alarms were produced across 15 zip codes, all during days of elevated respiratory visits. Future work includes evaluating our choice of baseline length, considering other alarm thresholds, and conducting a formal evaluation of the method across five syndromes in NYC.