Search results for "Bayesian probability"
showing 10 items of 217 documents
Bayesian estimation of edge orientations in junctions
1999
Abstract Junctions, defined as those points of an image where two or more edges meet, play a significant role in many computer vision applications. Junction detection is a widely treated problem, and some detectors can provide even the directions of the edges that meet in a junction. The main objective of this paper is the precise estimation of such directions. It is supposed that the junction point has been previously found by some detector. Also, it is assumed that samples, possibly noisy, of orientations of the edges found in a circular window surrounding the point are available. A mixture of von Mises distributions is assumed for these data, and then a Bayesian methodology is applied to…
A New Technique of Invariant Statistical Embedding and Averaging in Terms of Pivots for Improvement of Statistical Decisions Under Parametric Uncerta…
2021
In this chapter, a new technique of invariant embedding of sample statistics in a decision criterion (performance index) and averaging this criterion via pivotal quantities (pivots) is proposed for intelligent constructing efficient (optimal, uniformly non-dominated, unbiased, improved) statistical decisions under parametric uncertainty. This technique represents a simple and computationally attractive statistical method based on the constructive use of the invariance principle in mathematical statistics. Unlike the Bayesian approach, the technique of invariant statistical embedding and averaging in terms of pivotal quantities (ISE&APQ) is independent of the choice of priors and represents …
Bayesian adaptive estimation: The next dimension
2006
Abstract We propose a new psychometric model for two-dimensional stimuli, such as color differences, based on parameterizing the threshold of a one-dimensional psychometric function as an ellipse. The Ψ Bayesian adaptive estimation method applied to this model yields trials that vary in multiple stimulus dimensions simultaneously. Simulations indicate that this new procedure can be much more efficient than the more conventional procedure of estimating the psychometric function on one-dimensional lines independently, requiring only one-fourth or less the number of trials for equivalent performance in typical situations. In a real psychophysical experiment with a yes–no task, as few as 22 tri…
The design of absorbing Bayesian pursuit algorithms and the formal analyses of their ε-optimality
2016
The fundamental phenomenon that has been used to enhance the convergence speed of learning automata (LA) is that of incorporating the running maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the action reward probabilities into the probability updating rules for selecting the actions. The frontiers of this field have been recently expanded by replacing the ML estimates with their corresponding Bayesian counterparts that incorporate the properties of the conjugate priors. These constitute the Bayesian pursuit algorithm (BPA), and the discretized Bayesian pursuit algorithm. Although these algorithms have been designed and efficiently implemented, and are, arguably, the fastest and most accurate LA report…
Invariant Embedding Technique and Its Applications for Improvement or Optimization of Statistical Decisions
2010
In the present paper, for improvement or optimization of statistical decisions under parametric uncertainty, a new technique of invariant embedding of sample statistics in a performance index is proposed. This technique represents a simple and computationally attractive statistical method based on the constructive use of the invariance principle in mathematical statistics. Unlike the Bayesian approach, an invariant embedding technique is independent of the choice of priors. It allows one to eliminate unknown parameters from the problem and to find the best invariant decision rule, which has smaller risk than any of the well-known decision rules. To illustrate the proposed technique, applica…
Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues
2011
In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares estimator developed by Magnus, Powell, and Prüfer (2010, Journal of Econometrics 154: 139–153). Unlike standard pretest estimators that are based on some preliminary diagnostic test, these model-averaging estimators provide a coherent way of making inference on the regression parameters of interest by taking into account the uncertainty due to both the estimation and the model selection steps. Spec…
Obtaining the best value for money in adaptive sequential estimation
2010
Abstract In [Kujala, J. V., Richardson, U., & Lyytinen, H. (2010). A Bayesian-optimal principle for learner-friendly adaptation in learning games. Journal of Mathematical Psychology , 54(2), 247–255], we considered an extension of the conventional Bayesian adaptive estimation framework to situations where each observable variable is associated with a certain random cost of observation. We proposed an algorithm that chooses each placement by maximizing the expected gain in utility divided by the expected cost. In this paper, we formally justify this placement rule as an asymptotically optimal solution to the problem of maximizing the expected utility of an experiment that terminates when the…
Simulated Annealing in Bayesian Decision Theory
1992
Since the seminal paper by Kirkpatrick, Gelatt and Vechhi (1983), a number of papers in the scientific literature refer to simulated annealing as a powerful random optimization method which promises to deliver, within reasonable computing times, optimal or nearly optimal solutions to complex decision problems hitherto forbidding. The algorithm, which uses the physical process of annealing as a metaphor, is special in that, at each iteration, one may move with positive probability to solutions with higher values of the function to minimize, rather than directly jumping to the point with the smallest value within the neighborhood, thus drastically reducing the chances of getting trapped in lo…
Bayesian calibration of the nitrous oxide emission module of an agro-ecosystem model
2008
1. NitroEurope Open Science Conference on Reactive Nitrogen and the European Greenhouse Gas Balance ; Ghent (Belgique) - (2008-02-20 - 2008-02-21) / Conférence; Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the main biogenic greenhouse gas contributing to the global warming potential (GWP) of agro-ecosystems. Evaluating the impact of agriculture on climate therefore requires a capacity to predict N2O emissions in relation to environmental conditions and crop management. Biophysical models simulating the dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in agro-ecosystems have a unique potential to explore these relationships, but are fraught with high uncertainties in their parameters due to their variations over time and space. H…
Ranking of Brain Tumour Classifiers Using a Bayesian Approach
2009
This study presents a ranking for classifers using a Bayesian perspective. This ranking framework is able to evaluate the performance of the models to be compared when they are inferred from different sets of data. It also takes into account the performance obtained on samples not used during the training of the classifiers. Besides, this ranking assigns a prior to each model based on a measure of similarity of the training data to a test case. An evaluation consisting of ranking brain tumour classifiers is presented. These multilayer perceptron classifiers are trained with 1H magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) signals following a multiproject multicenter evaluation approach. We demonstr…