Search results for "Bayesian"

Bayesian Methodology in Statistics

2009

Bayesian methods provide a complete paradigm for statistical inference under uncertainty. These may be derived from an axiomatic system and provide a coherent methodology which makes it possible to incorporate relevant initial information, and which solves many of the difficulties that frequentist methods are known to face. If no prior information is to be assumed, the more frequent situation met in scientific reporting, a formal initial prior function, the reference prior, mathematically derived from the assumed model, is used; this leads to objective Bayesian methods, objective in the precise sense that their results, like frequentist results, only depend on the assumed model and the data…

M.J. (Susie) Bayarri

2021

Finding Prediction Limits for a Future Number of Failures in the Prescribed Time Interval under Parametric Uncertainty

2012

Computing prediction intervals is an important part of the forecasting process intended to indicate the likely uncertainty in point forecasts. Prediction intervals for future order statistics are widely used for reliability problems and other related problems. In this paper, we present an accurate procedure, called ‘within-sample prediction of order statistics', to obtain prediction limits for the number of failures that will be observed in a future inspection of a sample of units, based only on the results of the first in-service inspection of the same sample. The failure-time of such units is modeled with a two-parameter Weibull distribution indexed by scale and shape parameters β and δ, …

Solving two‐armed Bernoulli bandit problems using a Bayesian learning automaton

2010

PurposeThe two‐armed Bernoulli bandit (TABB) problem is a classical optimization problem where an agent sequentially pulls one of two arms attached to a gambling machine, with each pull resulting either in a reward or a penalty. The reward probabilities of each arm are unknown, and thus one must balance between exploiting existing knowledge about the arms, and obtaining new information. The purpose of this paper is to report research into a completely new family of solution schemes for the TABB problem: the Bayesian learning automaton (BLA) family.Design/methodology/approachAlthough computationally intractable in many cases, Bayesian methods provide a standard for optimal decision making. B…

Editorial: Timing the Brain: From Basic Sciences to Clinical Implications

2022

Protective role of mindfulness, self-compassion and psychological flexibility on the burnout subtypes among psychology and nursing undergraduate stud…

2021

Abstract To explore the relationship between mindfulness, self-compassion and psychological flexibility, and the burnout subtypes in university students of the Psychology and Nursing degrees, and to analyse possible risk factors for developing burnout among socio-demographic and studies-related characteristics. Design Cross-sectional study conducted on a sample of 644 undergraduate students of Nursing and Psychology from two Spanish universities. Methods The study was conducted between December 2015 and May 2016. Bivariate Pearson's correlations were computed to analyse the association between mindfulness facets, self-compassion and psychological flexibility, and levels of burnout. Multivar…

Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices

2017

A methodological approach for modelling the spatial distribution of bioclimatic indices is proposed in this paper. The value of the bioclimatic index is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates both structured and unstructured random effects. Selection of prior distributions is also discussed in order to better incorporate any possible prior knowledge about the parameters that could refer to the particular characteristics of bioclimatic indices. MCMC methods and distributed programming are used to obtain an approximation of the posterior distribution of the parameters and also the posterior predictive distribution of the indices. One main outcome of the proposal is the …

Reproducing kernel hilbert spaces regression methods for genomic assisted prediction of quantitative traits.

2008

Abstract Reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regression procedures for prediction of total genetic value for quantitative traits, which make use of phenotypic and genomic data simultaneously, are discussed from a theoretical perspective. It is argued that a nonparametric treatment may be needed for capturing the multiple and complex interactions potentially arising in whole-genome models, i.e., those based on thousands of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers. After a review of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regression, it is shown that the statistical specification admits a standard mixed-effects linear model representation, with smoothing parameters treated as variance components.…

Stones, Bones, and Hillfort: Radiocarbon Dating of Ķivutkalns Bronze-Working Center

2013

The Bronze Age site of ķivutkalns with its massive amount of archaeological artifacts and human remains is considered the largest bronze-working center in Latvia. The site is a unique combination of cemetery and hillfort believed to be built on top of each other. This work presents new radiocarbon dates on human and animal bone collagen that somewhat challenge this interpretation. Based on analyses using a Bayesian modeling framework, the present data suggest overlapping calendar year distributions for the contexts within the 1st millennium BC. The carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios indicate mainly terrestrial dietary habits of studied individuals and nuclear family remains buried in one o…

Radiocarbono y estadística Bayesiana: aportaciones a la cronología de la Edad del Bronce en el extremo oriental del sudeste de la península Ibérica

2014

La investigación arqueológica desarrollada en las últimas décadas ha permitido evaluar que en los valles de los ríos Segura y Vinalopó se dirimió el contacto entre dos sociedades de la Edad del Bronce de la península Ibérica: el grupo Argárico y el grupo del Prebético Meridional Valenciano. Las excavaciones realizadas en tres yacimientos de este ámbito - Terlinques, Cabezo Pardo y Cabezo Redondo- y las dotaciones de radiocarbono obtenidas permiten por primera vez evaluar la diacronía del proceso histórico que envolvió el desarrollo de ambos grupos arqueológicos a lo largo del II milenio cal BC, así como determinar diversos momentos socialmente significativos en su devenir histórico. Para el…