Search results for "CLIMATE MODEL"

2016

The spatial context is criticalwhen assessing present-day climate anomalies, attributing them to potential forcings and making statements regarding their frequency and severity in a long-term perspective. Recent international initiatives have expanded the number of high-quality proxy-records and developed new statistical reconstruction methods. These advances allow more rigorous regional past temperature reconstructions and, in turn, the possibility of evaluating climate models on policy-relevant, spatiotemporal scales. Here we provide a new proxy-based, annually-resolved, spatial reconstruction of the European summer (June-August) temperature fields back to 755 CE based on Bayesian hierarc…

Simulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment under climate change

2012

Summary This paper assesses the future variability of water resources in the short, medium and long terms over a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment in West Africa. Flow simulations were performed with a daily conceptual model. A period of nearly 50 years (1952–2000) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability. Calibration and validation were performed on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit indices. The climate models HadCM3 and MPI-M under SRES-A2 were used to provide future climate scenarios over the catchment. Outputs from these models were used to generate daily rainfall and temperature series for the 21st century according to:…

Implementation of a comprehensive ice crystal formation parameterization for cirrus and mixed-phase clouds in the EMAC model (based on MESSy 2.53)

2018

A comprehensive ice nucleation parameterization has been implemented in the global chemistry-climate model EMAC to improve the representation of ice crystal number concentrations (ICNCs). The parameterization of Barahona and Nenes (2009, hereafter BN09) allows for the treatment of ice nucleation taking into account the competition for water vapour between homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation in cirrus clouds. Furthermore, the influence of chemically heterogeneous, polydisperse aerosols is considered by applying one of the multiple ice nucleating particle parameterizations which are included in BN09 to compute the heterogeneously formed ice crystals. BN09 has been modified in order to co…

New research in the methods and applications of sclerochronology

2017

Abstract Because the instrumental record is short and does not extend to periods before the initiation of significant human impacts, full understanding of the processes and dynamics involved in the modern phase of very rapid global change depends on the interpretation of high resolution and precisely dated proxy archives. The identification of very long-lived species of bivalve mollusc in the extratropical marine environment has been a crucial recent advance. These molluscs form patterns of periodic (usually annual) banding in their shells that are synchronous within populations, so that long (centennial and millennial) stacked chronologies can be built by crossdating from live collected to…

Meteorological validation of chironomids as a paleotemperature proxy using varved lake sediments

2016

In order to improve the reliability of climate models in their projections for the future, spatially and temporally detailed paleoclimate proxy data are needed. In this study, we examined annually laminated sediments from Lake Nurmijärvi (Finland) for their fossil Chironomidae assemblages over a time period with available meteorological observational data (since 1830s). In doing so, we correlated chironomid-based inferences of summer air temperatures against instrumentally measured values using two different reconstruction approaches, namely, calibration-in-space (CiS, multilake training set) and calibration-in-time (CiT, calibration of time series data against meteorological data). The re…

Volcanic climate forcing preceding the inception of the Younger Dryas: Implications for tracing the Laacher See eruption

2021

Climatic warming from the last glacial maximum to the current interglacial period was punctuated by a similar to 1300 years long cold period, commonly referred to as the Younger Dryas (YD). Several hypotheses have been proposed for the mechanism triggering the abrupt inception of the YD, including freshwater forcing, an extra-terrestrial impact, and aerosols from volcanic eruptions. Here, we use synchronised sulphate and sulphur records from both Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to reconstruct volcanic forcing between 13,200-12,800 a BPGICC05 (years before 1950 CE on the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005; GICC05). This continuous reconstruction of stratospheric sulphur injections highligh…

Causes and consequences of past and projected Scandinavian summer temperatures, 500-2100 AD

2011

Tree rings dominate millennium-long temperature reconstructions and many records originate from Scandinavia, an area for which the relative roles of external forcing and internal variation on climatic changes are, however, not yet fully understood. Here we compile 1,179 series of maximum latewood density measurements from 25 conifer sites in northern Scandinavia, establish a suite of 36 subset chronologies, and analyse their climate signal. A new reconstruction for the 1483–2006 period correlates at 0.80 with June–August temperatures back to 1860. Summer cooling during the early 17th century and peak warming in the 1930s translate into a decadal amplitude of 2.9°C, which agrees with existin…

The SISAL database: a global resource to document oxygen and carbon isotope records from speleothems

2018

Stable isotope records from speleothems provide information on past climate changes, most particularly information that can be used to reconstruct past changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. These records are increasingly being used to provide “out-of-sample” evaluations of isotope-enabled climate models. SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) is an international working group of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project. The working group aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation. The SISAL database contains data for individual speleothems, grouped by cave system. Stable isotopes of oxyg…

New research on the development of high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxies from geochemical properties of biogenic carbonates

2017

Abstract Geochemical signatures from biogenic carbonates are being increasingly employed as palaeoenvironmental proxies. In turn, many of these proxy archives including mollusc shells, corals, and otoliths have periodic growth structures, which allow the reconstruction of chronologically constrained records of palaeoenvironmental variability at unparalleled high temporal resolution. Studying the growth and chemistry of these periodic growth structures is known as sclerochronology. Biogenic hard parts accumulate in geological or archaeological deposits, and can be directly dated using radiometric and racemisation methods. They therefore offer the opportunity for high-resolution palaeoenviron…

Testing the hypothesis of post-volcanic missing rings in temperature sensitive dendrochronological data

2013

a b s t r a c t The precise, annual dating control, inherent to dendrochronology, has recently been questioned through a combined analysis of tree-growth and coupled climate models (Mann et al. (2012; hereafter MAN12)) suggesting single tree-rings in temperature limited environments are missing following large volcanic events. We test this hypothesis of missing, post-volcanic rings by using a compilation of maximum late- wood density (MXD) records that are typically used for reconstructing temperature and the detection of volcanic events, together with a unique set of long instrumental station data from Europe reaching back into the early 18th century. We investigate the temporal coherence …