Search results for "CLIMATE MODEL"

Last interglacial temperature seasonality reconstructed from tropical Atlantic corals

2016

Abstract Reconstructions of last interglacial (LIG, MIS 5e, ∼127–117 ka) climate offer insights into the natural response and variability of the climate system during a period partially analogous to future climate change scenarios. We present well preserved fossil corals (Diploria strigosa) recovered from the southern Caribbean island of Bonaire (Caribbean Netherlands). These have been precisely dated by the 230Th/U-method to between 130 and 120 ka ago. Annual banding of the coral skeleton enabled construction of time windows of monthly resolved strontium/calcium (Sr/Ca) temperature proxy records. In conjunction with a previously published 118 ka coral record, our eight records of up to 37 …

Old World Megadroughts and Pluvials During the Common Era

2015

An atlas of megadroughts in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era provides insights into climate variability.

Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51

2016

Abstract. Three types of reference simulations, as recommended by the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI), have been performed with version 2.51 of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts – Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model: hindcast simulations (1950–2011), hindcast simulations with specified dynamics (1979–2013), i.e. nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data, and combined hindcast and projection simulations (1950–2100). The manuscript summarizes the updates of the model system and details the different model set-ups used, including the on-line calculated diagnostics. Simulations have been performed with two diff…

2020

Abstract. A new cloud microphysical scheme including a detailed parameterization for aerosol-driven ice formation in cirrus clouds is implemented in the global ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry–climate model and coupled to the third generation of the Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe adapted for global applications (MADE3) aerosol submodel. The new scheme is able to consistently simulate three regimes of stratiform clouds – liquid, mixed-, and ice-phase (cirrus) clouds – considering the activation of aerosol particles to form cloud droplets and the nucleation of ice crystals. In the cirrus regime, it allows for the competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous fre…

Testing the effects of temporal data resolution on predictions of the effects of climate change on bivalves

2014

a b s t r a c t The spatial-temporal scales on which environmental observations are made can significantly affect our perceptions of ecological patterns in nature. Understanding potential mismatches between environmen- tal data used as inputs to predictive models, and the forecasts of ecological responses that these models generate are particularly difficult when predicting responses to climate change since the assumption of model stationarity in time cannot be tested. In the last four decades, increases in computational capacity (by a factor of a million), and the evolution of new modeling tools, have permitted a corresponding increase in model complexity, in the length of the simulations,…

Phenology Estimation From Meteosat Second Generation Data

2013

Many studies have focused on land surface phenology, for example as a means to characterize both water and carbon cycles for climate model inputs. However, the Spinning Enhanced Visible Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) sensor onboard Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite has never been used for this goal. Here, five years of MSG-SEVIRI data have been processed to retrieve Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) daily time series. Due to existing gaps as well as atmospheric and cloud contamination in the time series, an algorithm based on the iterative Interpolation for Data Reconstruction (IDR) has been developed and applied to SEVIRI NDVI time series, from which phenologi…

Objective regional frequency analysis and future change of extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy

Property loss potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate

2007

[1] Winter storms of the midlatitudes are an important factor for property losses caused by natural hazards over Europe. The storm series in early 1990 and late 1999 led to enormous economic damages and insured claims. Although significant trends in North Atlantic/European storm activity have not been identified for the last few decades, recent studies provide evidence that under anthropogenic climate change the number of extreme storms could increase, whereas the total number of cyclones may be slightly reduced. In this study, loss potentials derived from an ensemble of climate models using a simple storm damage model under climate change conditions are shown. For the United Kingdom and Ge…

Global aerosol modeling with MADE3 (v3.0) in EMAC (based on v2.53): model description and evaluation

2019

Recently, the aerosol microphysics submodel MADE3 (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications, third generation) was introduced as a successor to MADE and MADE-in. It includes nine aerosol species and nine lognormal modes to represent aerosol particles of three different mixing states throughout the aerosol size spectrum. Here, we describe the implementation of the most recent version of MADE3 into the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) general circulation model, including a detailed evaluation of a 10-year aerosol simulation with MADE3 as part of EMAC. We compare simulation output to station network measurements of near-surface aerosol component mass con…

Quantifying Excess Deaths Related to Heatwaves under Climate Change Scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study

2018

Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse g…