Search results for "CLIMATE MODEL"

Improving the timeliness of winter wheat production forecast in the United States of America, Ukraine and China using MODIS data and NCAR Growing Deg…

2015

Abstract Wheat is the most important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely production forecasts are critical for making informed agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Nor…

Evolution de la circulation oécanique profonde durant le Crétacé : apport des isotopes du néodyme

2014

The Cretaceous is depicted as the warmest period of the last 300 Ma. The oceanic circulation and location of the source zones of deep-waters are essential to understand the role of oceans in the evolution of the climate during the Cretaceous, yet they remain unclear for this period. The neodymium (Nd) isotopes are used to track oceanic circulation and exchanges between water masses, in both past and modern oceans. The Nd isotope composition (εNd) in the ocean is related to the nature of the surrounding continental landmasses. The oceanic currents transport this isotopic signature, thus every oceanic basin acquires a singular εNd. Unequivocal interpretations of the Cretaceous seawater εNd va…

Stratospheric sulfur and its implications for radiative forcing simulated by the chemistry climate model EMAC

2015

Multiyear simulations with the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC with a microphysical modal aerosol module at high vertical resolution demonstrate that the sulfur gases COS and SO2, the latter from low-latitude and midlatitude volcanic eruptions, predominantly control the formation of stratospheric aerosol. Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and other SO2 sources, including strong anthropogenic emissions in China, are found to play a minor role except in the lowermost stratosphere. Estimates of volcanic SO2 emissions are based on satellite observations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Ozone Monitoring Instrument for total injected mass and Michelson Interferometer fo…

A Fast Solar Radiation Transfer Code for Application in Climate Models

1983

A method is presented for the calculation of solar heating rates in turbid and cloudy atmospheres. In contrast to other typical two-stream procedures, the system of differential equations describing the radiative transfer is decoupled through the application of a series expansion of the flux densities resulting in a single analytical expression for each flux. The present method (PM) yields a solution for the entire atmosphere instead of individual atmospheric layers. This procedure avoids as part of the solution scheme the inversion of a rather complex matrix thus resulting in high numerical efficiency. The model includes the absorption by atmospheric gases such as water vapor, CO2, O3 and …

2019

Abstract The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature–hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, …

Assessment of the Present and Future Offshore Wind Power Potential: A Case Study in a Target Territory of the Baltic Sea Near the Latvian Coast

2013

Offshore wind energy development promises to be a significant domestic renewable energy source in Latvia. The reliable prediction of present and future wind resources at offshore sites is crucial for planning and selecting the location for wind farms. The overall goal of this paper is the assessment of offshore wind power potential in a target territory of the Baltic Sea near the Latvian coast as well as the identification of a trend in the future wind energy potential for the study territory. The regional climate model CLM and High Resolution Limited Area Model (Hirlam) simulations were used to obtain the wind climatology data for the study area. The results indicated that offshore wind en…

A new approach to model the effect of climate change on the building sector: A climate models data fusion

2020

Several climate models have been developed and used to forecast the effects of the climate changes, however the variability of results due to different models lead to a significant uncertainty on the estimation of the building energy use for the next century. In this context, the paper analyses this uncertainty and combines different climate models in order to improve the robustness of energy consumption predictions. The data of the climate models were then used to generate hourly weather files for the future period 2020-2099 and energy simulations for a case study located in Palermo (Italy) were performed. Results show a wide variability among all models (either alone or combined with our …

EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulation of precipitation on Scottish islands (1971-2000): model performance and implications for decision-makin…

2017

Due to their scale and complex topography, islands such as the Hebrides and Shetland Islands are not completely resolved by global climate models, which may impact the quality of data that can be provided about future climate in such locations. In principle, dynamical downscaling may provide helpful additional detail about future local climate. However, there is also the potential for error and uncertainty to cascade through to the regional simulation. Here, we evaluate the simulative skill of the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble on regional and local scales in the Hebrides and Shetland Islands, and consider the potential for such models to aid decision-making in island settings,…

The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe

2016

Abstract. Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on an…

Abundance of cellular material and proteins in the atmosphere.

2005

Suspended atmospheric particles play a crucial role in any global climate scenario: They can both enforce and suppress radiative forcing. In developing climate modeling further, a deeper understanding of atmospheric aerosol is needed. Because of extreme local and temporal variations, proper incorporation of aerosols into models requires modeling of the aerosol itself. It turns out that cellular material and proteins compose up to 25% of the atmospheric aerosol. Consequently, the source strength of the biogenic aerosol in general must be corrected and should be estimated on the order of other major aerosol sources.