Search results for "Carlo"
showing 10 items of 1845 documents
Sampling properties of the Bayesian posterior mean with an application to WALS estimation
2022
Many statistical and econometric learning methods rely on Bayesian ideas, often applied or reinterpreted in a frequentist setting. Two leading examples are shrinkage estimators and model averaging estimators, such as weighted-average least squares (WALS). In many instances, the accuracy of these learning methods in repeated samples is assessed using the variance of the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest given the data. This may be permissible when the sample size is large because, under the conditions of the Bernstein--von Mises theorem, the posterior variance agrees asymptotically with the frequentist variance. In finite samples, however, things are less clear. In this pa…
Nonlinear impact estimation in spatial autoregressive models
2018
International audience; This paper extends the literature on the calculation and interpretation of impacts for spatial autoregressive models. Using a Bayesian framework, we show how the individual direct and indirect impacts associated with an exogenous variable introduced in a nonlinear way in such models can be computed, theoretically and empirically. Rather than averaging the individual impacts, we suggest to graphically analyze them along with their confidence intervals calculated from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We also explicitly derive the form of the gap between individual impacts in the spatial autoregressive model and the corresponding model without a spatial lag and show, in…
Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer …
2019
Abstract In this paper we analyse the efficiency of the sports betting market, seeking to ascertain whether the market is efficient in the case of fixed odds provided by bookmakers in the four major European soccer leagues under the semi-strong efficiency hypothesis. By examining the trends of odds in the event of a major change in expectations about team results, i.e. when the head coach of a team is replaced, we attempt to verify the argument that a profitable strategy for the bettor is likely to be possible. In this case, the market under consideration would be inefficient. Analysing the average effect of head coach replacement, we find a positive impact on team performance. Based on thi…
DETECTING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS BY DESIGNED BREAK-INDICATOR SATURATION
2016
We present a methodology for detecting breaks at any point in time-series regression models using an indicator saturation approach, applied here to modelling climate change. Building on recent developments in econometric model selection for more variables than observations, we saturate a regression model with a full set of designed break functions. By selecting over these break functions using an extended general-to-specific algorithm, we obtain unbiased estimates of the break date and magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the approximate properties of the approach. We assess the methodology by detecting volcanic eruptions in a time series of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature spanni…
Studio di modelli equivalenti per la simulazione con il codice PENELOPE della risposta in efficienza di un rivelatore HPGe
2017
La simulazione della risposta di un rivelatore HPGe con l’impiego di codici Monte Carlo è una tecnica ormai diffusamente impiegata e particolarmente utile per la valutazione di efficienze quando non sono disponibili standards di calibrazione con stessa forma e composizione del campione in esame. Il risultato della simulazione dipende dalla conoscenza più o meno dettagliata delle caratteristiche del rivelatore, atte a definire un “modello” dello stesso. Per evidenziare anche quelle parti non definite nella certificazione del costruttore, solitamente si effettua una radiografia del rivelatore fatta eccezione per i casi in cui non è realizzabile pena lo smontaggio della struttura di schermatur…
Considerations about multiple and plural scattering in heavy-ion low-energy ERDA
2009
Abstract Low-energy heavy-ion Elastic Recoil Detection Analysis (ERDA) is becoming a mature technique for high-resolution characterization of thin films, i.e. below 50 nm thickness. In combination with a small tandem accelerator (∼2 MV terminal voltage) and beam energies below 20 MeV, it is suitable for routine analysis of key materials in semiconductor technology. At low-energies, however, small angle multiple scattering and large angle plural scattering of ions play a significant role, starting from the first nanometers. Multiple and plural scattering dominate the depth resolution deterioration with increasing depth and, when glancing angles are used, introduce long tails in the elemental…
Inclusive pion-nucleus double charge exchange.
1989
Inclusive double charge exchange reaction is studied by using a model which combines a microscopic many-body calculation of reaction probabilities with a Monte Carlo simulation procedure. Comparison with present experimental results requires that the (\ensuremath{\pi},2\ensuremath{\pi}) reaction be included and a proper evaluation of this latter reaction is also done. The combined results compare favorably with experiment, giving extra support to this model of the pion-nucleus interaction which was previously shown to provide a good description of all other inclusive reactions and elastic scattering.
A low energy bound atomic electron Compton scattering model for Geant4
2014
Abstract A two-body fully relativistic three-dimensional scattering framework has been utilised to develop an alternative Compton scattering computational model to those adapted from Ribberfors’ work for Monte Carlo modelling of Compton scattering. Using a theoretical foundation that ensures the conservation of energy and momentum in the relativistic impulse approximation, this new model, the Monash University Compton scattering model, develops energy and directional algorithms for both the scattered photon and ejected Compton electron from first principles. The Monash University Compton scattering model was developed to address the limitation of the Compton electron directionality algorith…
C-S-H/solution interface: Experimental and Monte Carlo studies
2010
International audience; The surface charge density of C-S-H particles appears to be one of the key parameters for predicting the cohesion strength, understanding the ion retention, the pollutant leakage, and admixture adsorption in hydrated cement pastes. This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation of the surface-ions interactions that permits the prediction of surface charge density (σ), electrokinetic potential (ζ) and ions adsorption of mineral surfaces in equilibrium with a given electrolyte solution. Simulated results are compared to experimental data obtained by titration, electrokinetic potential measurements and ions uptake in the case of C-S-H suspensions. An excellent agreement i…
The hydration shell of myoglobin.
1992
The space in the unit cell of a metmyoglobin crystal not occupied by myoglobin atoms was filled with water using Monte Carlo calculations. Independent calculations with different amounts of water have been performed. Structure factors were calculated using the water coordinates thus obtained and the known coordinates of the myoglobin atoms. A comparison with experimental structure factors showed that both the low and the high resolution regime could be well reproduced with 814 Monte Carlo water molecules per unit cell with a B-value of 50 A2. The Monte Carlo water molecules yield a smaller standard R-value (0.166) than using a homogeneous electron density for the simulation of the crystal w…