Search results for "Clima"
showing 10 items of 6069 documents
Prediction of Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa and Its Relation to Forcing from the Extratropics
2009
Abstract Precipitation during the boreal winter dry season in tropical West Africa is rare but occasionally results in significant impacts on the local population. The dynamics and predictability of this phenomenon have been studied very little. Here, a statistical evaluation of the climatology, dynamics, and predictions of dry-season wet events is presented for the region 7.5°–15°N, 10°W–10°E. The analysis is based upon Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) merged satellite–gauge pentad rainfall estimates and 5-day 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) precipitation forecasts, and covers the 23 dry seasons (November–February) during…
Seasonal evolution of boundary layer heat content in the West African monsoon from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1968-1998)
2000
Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) dataset over the period 1968–1998, the basic relationships between July and September monsoon circulation variations over West Africa and monthly meridional distribution of moist static energy (MSE) content in the boundary layer are portrayed. Wet minus dry stratified analyses relative to Sudan–Sahel rainfall show that particular April–June meridional patterns of near-surface MSE contents, south of 10°N, could control the amplitude and timing of the monsoon rainy season. Relative to the driest July–September situations, the wettest ones have been, on average, preceded by delayed but…
Changes in the African monsoon region at medium-term time horizon using 12 AR4 coupled models under the A1b emissions scenario.
2011
This study documents simulated precipitation and circulation changes through the 20C3M and A1b scenarios. It portrays a robust pattern, associating rainfall deficits in subtropical regions with rainfall excesses over West Africa, except in Northern Senegal and Mauritania, with a significant enhancement of both the April–June rainy season in 10/12 models and of the July–September rainy season in 8/12 models. Eastward to 5°W a northward shift in the latitude of the moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa is evident in 10/11 models (+0.58° in mean) and a southward shift in 6/11 models in the western region (−0.24°) is observed. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
The East African March–May Rainy Season: Associated Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability over the 1968–97 Period
2002
Abstract This paper focuses on the East African March–May “long rains.” Particularly, it investigates the atmospheric patterns associated to the March–May rainfall anomalies, then proposes a seasonal prediction model. In a preliminary step, in order to define a regional rainfall index, a new form of extended principal component analysis is performed, aimed at capturing both the spatial and intraseasonal rainfall coherence. What emerges is that although the long rains exhibit a low temporal coherence, calling for a separation between the months of March–April and May in teleconnection studies, they show a relatively strong spatial consistency over the Kenya–Uganda inland region. From composi…
The onset of the rainy season in Yunnan province, PR China and its significance for agricultural operations
1993
Data of 134 stations located in Yunnan province, PR China were analysed in order to study the temporal and spatial characteristics of the onset of the rainy season and to investigate the consequences for farming operations. Using a precipitation threshold value, a time span of 12 weeks was found for the complete onset of the rainy season, while the range of onset dates varied from 37 days to 155 days. The onset occurred at different places across the province and showed active and break phases due to the interaction of four different branches of the atmospheric circulation. The onset of the growing season, determined by summing up decade precipitation totals, showed the same general pattern…
Spring to summer changes in the West African monsoon through NCEP/NCAR reanalyses (1968–1998)
2002
[1] This article focuses on the spring to summer evolutions of the West African monsoon from an energetic point of view; it uses NCEP/NCAR reanalyses along with observed and simulated rainfall data over the period 1968–1998. The results show that the West African monsoon can be viewed as a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system phased with the zenithal evolution of solar radiation which maintains its thermally direct circulation by pumping, from the surface, enthalpy mainly in spring and latent energy in summer. In this context the horizontal energy gradients in the boundary layer play a key role during the spring to summer transition. At the beginning of spring, the moist static energy (MSE)…
Interannual variability of rainfall in the eastern horn of Africa and indicators of atmospheric circulation
1993
Relationships between rainfall variations in the Eastern Horn of Africa, the Southern Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean temperature and pressure surface fields are studied for the period 1932–83. Rainfall data consist of stations and regional indices calculated for three selected areas experiencing quite different rainfall patterns. The results indicate significant negative correlations between northern autumn rains in Somalia and the Southern Oscillation during the same season. These rains are also negatively correlated with pressure in the Western Indian Ocean, and positively correlated in the Eastern Indian Ocean. The reverse pattern is shown with sea-surface temperature. This agrees ver…
Ethnographic context and spatial coherence of climate indicators for farming communities : a multi-regional comparative assessment
2015
Accurate seasonal predictions of rainfall may reduce climatic risks that farmers are usually faced with across the tropical and subtropical zones. However, although regional-scale seasonal amounts have regularly been forecasted since 1997/98, the practical use of these seasonal predictions is still limited by myriad factors. This paper synthesizes the main resultsof a multi-disciplinary ethnographic and climatic project (PICREVAT). Its main objective was to seek the climatic information ? beyond the seasonal amounts ? critical for crops, both as an actual constraint to crop yields and as identified by the current and past practices and perceptions of farmers. A second goal was to confront t…
Comparison of rainfall structures between NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and observed data over tropical Africa
2000
A comparison is made between modelled (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) and observed (CRC and CRU dataset) annual and monthly precipitation over tropical Africa during the period 1958–1997. The split moving-windows dissimilarity analysis (SMWDA) is used to locate abrupt changes in rainfall time series. In the NCEP reanalysis data, we identify a main abrupt shift, which occurs in 1967 and concerns more than 50% of grid points. In the observation, this shift is only found over parts of tropical North Africa. Three other NCEP abrupt shifts (1975, 1983 and 1987) in the reanalysis shown by the SMWDA, each concerning about 20% of tropical Africa, are not identified in the observation. One hypothesis concern…
Application of daily rainfall principal component analysis to the assessment of the rainy season characteristics in Senegal
2003
The interannual variability of the onset and cessation dates of the rainy season (RS) in Senegal is analyzed over the 43 yr period 1950-1992, using daily rainfall data for 34 stations. The use of principal component analysis, based on rainfall only, is explored to identify aggregate, regional indexes for the onset and cessation of the rains. The minimum and maximum values of the cumula- tive scores of principal component 1, for each year, are used to locate the onset and cessation dates, respectively. Very distinct spatial rainfall patterns are found before and after the onset/cessation dates. Mean dates compare favorably with those based on other definitions, though our method is not meant…