Search results for "Clone"
showing 10 items of 312 documents
Mixing and ageing in the polar lower stratosphere in winter 2015–2016
2018
We present data from winter 2015–2016, which were measured during the POLSTRACC (The Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate) aircraft campaign between December 2015 and March 2016 in the Arctic upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The focus of this work is on the role of transport and mixing between aged and potentially chemically processed air masses from the stratosphere which have midlatitude and low-latitude air mass fractions with small transit times originating at the tropical lower stratosphere. By combining measurements of CO, N2O and SF6 we estimate the evolution of the relative contributions of transport and mixing to the UTLS composition over the course of the winte…
Regionalizing Rainfall at Very High Resolution over La Réunion Island: A Case Study for Tropical Cyclone Ando
2016
AbstractEnsemble simulations of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ando (31 December 2000–9 January 2001) are performed over the southwest Indian Ocean using the nonhydrostatic WRF Model. Nested domains centered over the island of La Réunion allow for the simulation of local rainfall amounts associated with TC Ando at very high resolution (680-m grid spacing). The model is forced by and nudged toward ERA-Interim during the first (1–6) day(s) of the TC’s life cycle. The nudging ends at various dates to constrain either the whole life cycle or only parts of it.As expected, results show weakened member dispersion, as the relaxation lasts longer, with more members producing similar cyclone tracks and intens…
On the Co-Occurrence of Warm Conveyor Belt Outflows and PV Streamers
2014
Abstract The co-occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), strongly ascending moist airstreams in extratropical cyclones, and stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers, indicators for breaking Rossby waves on the tropopause, is investigated for a 21-yr period in the Northern Hemisphere using Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB outflows and PV streamers are respectively identified as two- and three-dimensional objects and tracked during their life cycle. PV streamers are more frequent than WCB outflows and nearly 15% of all PV streamers co-occur with WCBs during their life cycle, whereas about 60% of all WCB outflows co…
A PV Perspective on the Vertical Structure of Mature Midlatitude Cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere
2012
Abstract Development of extratropical cyclones can be seen as an interplay of three positive potential vorticity anomalies: an upper-level stratospheric intrusion, low-tropospheric diabatically produced potential vorticity (PV), and a warm anomaly at the surface acting as a surrogate PV anomaly. This study, based on the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset, quantifies the amplitude of the PV anomalies of mature extratropical cyclones in different regions in the Northern Hemisphere on a climatological basis. A tracking algorithm is applied to sea level pressure (SLP) fields to identify cyclone tracks. Surface potential temperature anomalies Δθ and vertical profiles of PV anomalies…
Interaction of a tropical cyclone with a high-amplitude, midlatitude wave pattern: Waviness analysis, trough deformation and track bifurcation
2013
An idealized scenario of extratropical transition (ET) is investigated, in which a tropical cyclone interacts with a high-amplitude, upper-level wave pattern and well-developed surface cyclones. Early during the interaction, the external forcing of the upper-level wave by the ET system is quantified based on a metric for the waviness of the midlatitude flow. Local amplification of the wave pattern is diagnosed, associated prominently with the trough downstream of ET. This amplified trough, however, exhibits pronounced anticyclonic breaking and thus, in contrast to many previous ET studies, it is not clear that the amplification of the upper-level wave propagates into the farther downstream …
The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Field Campaign: Perspectives of Early Career Scientists
2012
The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) field experiment successfully gathered data from four developing and four decaying/nondeveloping tropical disturbances over the tropical North Atlantic basin between 15 August and 30 September 2010. The invaluable roles played by early career scientists (ECSs) throughout the campaign helped make possible the successful execution of the field program's mission to investigate tropical cyclone formation. ECSs provided critical meteorological information— often obtained from novel ECS-created products—during daily weather briefings that were used by the principal investigators in making mission planning decisions. Once a…
Fast transport from Southeast Asia boundary layer sources to northern Europe: rapid uplift in typhoons and eastward eddy shedding of the Asian monsoo…
2014
Abstract. Enhanced tropospheric trace gases such as CO, CH4 and H2O and reduced stratospheric O3 were measured in situ in the lowermost stratosphere over northern Europe on 26 September 2012 during the TACTS aircraft campaign. The measurements indicate that these air masses clearly differ from the stratospheric background. The calculation of 40-day backward trajectories with the trajectory module of the CLaMS model shows that these air masses are affected by the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Some air masses originate from the boundary layer in Southeast Asia/West Pacific and are rapidly lifted (1–2 days) within a typhoon up to the outer edge of the Asian monsoon anticyclone. Afterwards, the ai…
The effects of the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones on Ethiopian drought
1998
Tropical cyclones are one of the prominent weather systems that are generated over the tropical oceans. The cyclones that develop in the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) usually travel west then southwest and finally recurve to southeast, generally before reaching the East African coast. However, it is shown in this study how SWIO-tropical cyclones/depressions can indirectly affect Ethiopian weather. Using correlation and composite analyses, interannual and intraseasonal rainfall variations in Ethiopia were compared with the frequency and time of occurrence of the tropical cyclones. Years showing the consecutive occurrence of several tropical depressions over the SWIO coincide with the drought…
Statistical-Dynamical Forecasting of Sub-Seasonal North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Occurrence
2021
AbstractWhile previous research on sub-seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence has mostly focused on either the validation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, or the development of statistical models trained on past data, the present study combines both approaches to a statistical–dynamical model for probabilistic forecasts in the North Atlantic basin. Although state-of-the-art NWP models have been shown to lack predictive skill with respect to sub-seasonal weekly TC occurrence, they may predict the environmental conditions sufficiently well to generate predictors for a statistical model. Therefore, an extensive predictor set was generated, including predictor groups representin…
Assessing the predictability of Medicanes in ECMWF ensemble forecasts using an object-based approach
2018
The predictability of eight southern European tropical-like cyclones, seven of which Medicanes, is studied evaluating ECMWF operational ensemble forecasts against operational analysis data. Forecast cyclone trajectories are compared to the cyclone trajectory in the analysis by means of a dynamic time warping technique, which allows to find a match in terms of their overall spatio-temporal similarity. Each storm is treated as an object and its forecasts are analysed using metrics that describe intensity, symmetry, compactness, and upper-level thermal structure. This object-based approach allows to focus on specific storm features, while tolerating their shifts in time and space to some exten…