Search results for "Conditional"

showing 4 items of 294 documents

Algorithms for coherence checking and propagation of conditional probability bounds

2001

In this paper, we propose some algorithms for the checking of generalized coherence (g-coherence) and for the extension of imprecise conditional probability assessments. Our concept of g-coherence is a generalization of de Finetti’s coherence principle and is equivalent to the ”avoiding uniform loss” property for lower and upper probabilities (a la Walley). By our algorithms we can check the g-coherence of a given imprecise assessment and we can correct it in order to obtain the associated coherent assessment (in the sense of Walley and Williams). Exploiting some properties of the random gain we show how, in the linear systems involved in our algorithms, we can work with a reduced set of va…

reduced sets of variables and constraintsSettore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica MatematicaUncertain knowledgeUncertain knowledge probabilistic reasoning under coherence imprecise conditional probability assessments g-coherence checking g-coherent extension algorithms computational aspects reduced sets of variables reduced sets of linear constraints.g-coherent extensionimprecise conditional probability assessmentsg-coherence checkingUncertain knowledge; probabilistic reasoning under coherence; imprecise conditional probability assessments; g-coherence checking; g-coherent extension; algorithms.; computational aspects; reduced sets of variables and constraints.algorithmsprobabilistic reasoning under coherencecomputational aspects
researchProduct

Space-Time Forecasting of Seismic Events in Chile

2017

The aim of this work is to study the seismicity in Chile using the ETAS (epidemic type aftershock sequences) space‐time approach. The proposed ETAS model is estimated using a semi‐parametric technique taking into account the parametric and nonparametric components corresponding to the triggered and background seismicity, respectively. The model is then used to predict the temporal and spatial intensity of events for some areas of Chile where recent large earthquakes (with magnitude greater than 8.0 M) occurred.

space‐time point processes conditional intensity function ETAS model etasFLP(R package) forecastSpace timeforecsting Chile esrthquakesSettore SECS-S/01 - StatisticaGeologySeismology
researchProduct

Effect of awareness on learning in biconditional discrimination conditioning

2004

tietoisuusehdollistuminenbiconditional discriminationawarenesssequential conditioningeyeblink conditioningassociative learninghumans
researchProduct

Coherent conditional probabilities and proper scoring rules

2011

In this paper we study the relationship between the notion of coherence for conditional probability assessments on a family of conditional events and the notion of admissibility with respect to scoring rules. By extending a recent result given in literature for unconditional events, we prove, for any given strictly proper scoring rule s, the equivalence between the coherence of a conditional probability assessment and its admissibility with respect to s. In this paper we focus our analysis on the case of continuous bounded scoring rules. In this context a key role is also played by Bregman divergence and by a related theoretical aspect. Finally, we briefly illustrate a possible way of defin…

total coherenceSettore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica Matematicabregman divergencestrong dominanceconditional scoring rulesConditional probability assessments coherence penalty criterion proper scoring rules conditional scoring rules weak dominance strong dominance admissibility Bregman divergence g-coherence total coherence imprecise probability assessments.weak dominancestrong dominance; conditional probability assessments; imprecise probability assessments; gcoherence; proper scoring rules; bregman divergence; weak dominance; coherence; imprecise probability assessments.; admissibility; g-coherence; penalty criterion; conditional scoring rules; total coherencepenalty criteriongcoherenceproper scoring rulescoherenceconditional probability assessmentsg-coherenceimprecise probability assessmentsadmissibility
researchProduct