Search results for "Contagion"
showing 10 items of 56 documents
Wavelet analysis of financial contagion
2011
The aim is to estimate a factor model fitted to financial returns to disentagle the role played by common shock and idiosincratic shocks in shaping the comovement between asset returns during periods of calm and financial turbulence. For this purpose, we use wavelet analysis and, in particular, the Maximum Overlapping Discrete Wavelet Transform, to decompose the covariance matrix of the asset returns on a scale by scale basis, where each scale is associated to a given frequency range. This decomposition will give enough moment conditions to identify the role played by common and idiosincratic shocks. A Montecarlo simulation experiment shows that our testing methodology has good size and power …
Choosing Optimal Seed Nodes in Competitive Contagion.
2019
International audience; In recent years there has been a growing interest in simulating competitive markets to find out the efficient ways to advertise a product or spread an ideology. Along this line, we consider a binary competitive contagion process where two infections, A and B, interact with each other and diffuse simultaneously in a network. We investigate which is the best centrality measure to find out the seed nodes a company should adopt in the presence of rivals so that it can maximize its influence. These nodes can be used as the initial spreaders or advertisers by firms when two firms compete with each other. Each node is assigned a price tag to become an initial advertiser whi…
Testing for financial contagion between developed and emerging markets during the 1997 East Asian crisis
2005
In this paper we examine whether during the 1997 East Asian crisis there was any contagion from the four largest economies in the region (Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia) to a number of developed countries (Japan, UK, Germany and France). Following Forbes and Rigobon, we test for contagion as a significant positive shift in the correlation between asset returns, taking into account heteroscedasticity and endogeneity bias. Furthermore, we improve on earlier empirical studies by carrying out a full sample test of the stability of the system that relies on more plausible (over) identifying restrictions. The estimation results provide some evidence of contagion, in particular from Japan…
Qui chi non terrorizza si ammala di terrore
2020
Between the winter and spring of 2020, a war was fought around us against an invisible and silent enemy. Arrived in a breath from a distant country, thanks to a world without distances and time, a virus dramatically changed the life and destiny of millions of women and men in many nations of the world, including ours. Terror took possession, like a disease, of the body and of the words; the fear of a contagion that seemed to leave no way out upset private and public habits and rituals; it seemed that nothing was the same as before. Pain and death had once again become a daily experience, while for years they had remained strangers, just a show that took place far away from us.
Prognostic factors and predictors of outcome in children with autism spectrum disorder: the role of the paediatrician.
2021
Abstract Background Autism spectrum disorder is a complex condition with wide variation in type and severity that involves persistent challenges in social interaction, speech and nonverbal communication, restricted/repetitive behaviours and adaptive behaviours. In recent years, research has deepened the study of the predictive factors of optimal outcome, intended as indicators of positive trajectory in children with a previous diagnosis of autism who, after a therapeutic path, show a significant reduction in the “core” symptoms of autism and a positive evolution in social, adaptive, affective, and relational skills. Methods The study included 40 children aged 21 to 66 months, enrolled betwe…
Contagions. Histoires de la précarité humaine
2011
Catastrophes nucléaires et contaminations radioactives ; contaminations alimentaires par diverses bactéries qui affectent aussi la santé fragile de l’agriculture européenne ; mouvements d’émancipation des peuples du Maghreb et du Proche-Orient qu’on qualifie de « contagion démocratique » ; ravages de produits financiers toxiques qui continuent de menacer l’équilibre budgétaire des États-nations ; émergence de maladies infectieuses globales (SRAS, grippes H1N1 et H5N1) que l’OMS ne peut contrô...
Anxiety in Older Adolescents at the Time of COVID-19
2020
Corona Virus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is a catastrophic health risk, with psychological, emotional, social, and relational implications. From the early stages of the virus spread, the elderly population was identified as the most vulnerable, and health authorities have rightly focused on this frailer population. Conversely, less attention was given to the emotional and psychological dimensions of children and adolescents. Moreover, even though they were the subjects whose lives and health were at low risk, they, nevertheless, had to face a reality full of anxiety, fears, and uncertainties. The current study investigated the state of anxiety and emotional awareness in a sample of healthy older …
Empiricism and common sense: the management of public health in the Kingdom of Sicily (1575-1860)
2020
The research outlines the evolution of the public health management system in the Kingdom of Sicily between the second half of the 16th century and the first half of the 19th century, emphasizing the specific features of the Sicilian case and highlighting the possible causes. It frames the evolution of public health institutions in Sicily both in the process of centralization and organization of the administrative apparatus of modern State, and in the development of medical theories concerning contagion. Through the analysis of the legislation and of the documentation produced by the competent bodies, it has been proved that there is no break in continuity in the activity of the various ins…
Is It Really That Funny? Laughter, Emotional Contagion, and Heuristic Processing During Shared Media Use
2017
ABSTRACTWhen people use humorous media content, their behavior and assessments of the content may depend on the emotional expressions (e.g., laughter) of those around them. In a laboratory experiment in which 80 participants watched a movie clip with a confederate who either laughed or remained silent, we identified two parallel processes. The confederate’s laughter induced behavioral responses in our participants (laughing or smiling). Through those responses, a corresponding appraisal of the media content was generated: The content was rated funnier in comparison to situations in which the confederate did not laugh. This effect corresponds to emotional contagion processes and was especial…
Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis
2009
Abstract In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997–1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.