Search results for "DEBT"
showing 10 items of 295 documents
Public debt, money and consumer prices: a vector error correction model for Germany
2015
In the paper, the authors analyse the interaction between public debt and inflation including the mutual impulse response. The European sovereign debt crisis brought once again a focus onto the consequences of government debt in combination with an expansionary monetary policy for the development of consumer prices. Public deficits can lead to higher inflation rates if the money supply is expansionary. The high level of national debt, not only in the Euro-crisis countries, and the strong increase in the total assets of the European Central Bank, as a result of the unconventional monetary policy, have caused fears of inflating government debt. The transmission from public debt to inflation t…
Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Space in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union: Normal Times Vs the Zero Lower Bound
2020
In this paper we study fiscal policy effects and fiscal space for countries in a monetary union with different levels of public debt. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a two-country monetary union, calibrated to match the characteristics of Spain and Germany, in which debt sustainability is endogenously determined a la Bi (2012) to shape the responses of the risk premium on public debt. Policy shocks change the market’s expectation about future primary surplus, producing a direct effect on the sovereign risk premium and macroeconomic responses of the economy. In normal times the costs of a government spending driven fiscal consolidation in the high-debt cou…
Análisis de la sostenibilidad del sector exterior en la OCDE con técnicas de multicointegración
2022
Este artículo analiza la sostenibilidad externa de un grupo de 23 países de la OCDE durante el periodo 1970-2020. La estrategia empírica adoptada muestra la importancia del desequilibrio acumulado como desencadenante del ajuste externo, en línea con la propuesta de Gourinchas y Rey (2007). Para ello, contrastamos la sostenibilidad externa a través de la relación acumulado-flujo entre las variables que representan las relaciones externas de una economía abierta utilizando varios tipos de contrastes de cointegración y multicointegración. Los resultados obtenidos apuntan hacia la sostenibilidad en sentido débil en el análisis de los flujos, mientras que desde el punto de vista del enfoque acum…
Determinants of Sub-Sovereign Government Ratings In Europe
2017
The aim of this paper is to identify the determinantsof the rating assigned to sub-sovereignentities in Germany, Austria, Belgium, France,Italy and Spain, using a total of 92 territorial entitiesfor the 1989-2012 period. Multinomial orderedprobit estimation models were estimatedfor each specifi cation and agency.We conclude that the country’s rating is oneof the most important determinants of regionalgovernment’s ratings with a positive infl uence(as expected), and that the country debt/GDPratio is a stronger determinant for regions thantheir own indebtedness with a negative sign.Other relevant variables are population growthrate, unemployment rate, elderly people weight,regional public exp…
THE IMPACT OF REGIONAL AND COHESION POLICY ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE EU
2012
As the global financial and economic crisis hit the European Union, no country was left unharmed. To this day, the Member States share the burden of excessive foreign debt, inflation, budget deficit, high unemployment levels, shaken stability of the currency, and many more. Multiple responses were introduced to these damaging effects, including adopting changes to the use of the Globalisation Adjustment Fund, enabling a Financial Stability Mechanism for the Euro zone and introducing a number of micro-financing instruments, particularly to support SMEs. Nevertheless, these have all been short-term actions, which will not suffice to ensure a long-term, sustainable economic growth of the Europ…
Shared Cognitions in a Field of Informal Education: Knowledge Maps Towards Money Management of Young Adults
2013
Prerequisite knowledge of first grade Bachelor students (N = 48) on processes of private consumption and housekeeping (money management) has been assessed by means of knowledge mapping. The study is based on the fact that in German compulsory education, there is no emphasis on economic literacy. Young adults (students), however, have to cope with individual economic planning processes. Most of them succeed based on support from families, friends, and peers. Some may simply refer to successful models experienced within their money socialization or to professional advice. Others, however, fail and become confronted with early indebtedness or even overindebtedness. The percentage of young adul…
STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THE REPUBLIC OF LATVIA AS EU MEMBER STATE
2012
After joining the EU in 2004, came to an end an important phase of the economic development of Latvian, which opened as new opportunities, as new challenges. Accession to the EU can be viewed on the one hand, the transitional period, on the other hand, it can be characterized as the period when Latvia was standing at the new crossroads and was ready for new, fundamental alternatives. Accession of Latvia in the EU contributed to the deepening of economic integration, radically changing the situation, as in financial, as in labor markets. Since 2004 Latvian experienced both, rapid economic growth, with GDP growth exceeded 12% per annum, and a significant recession, when GDP fell by nearly 18%…
The economic impact of European financial integration: The importance of the banking union
2015
Abstract The aim of the paper is to analyze the effect of European financial integration on economic growth. We focus on how the international financial crisis that started in 2007 has affected integration and growth. By combining information at country, sector and firm level, we quantify the effect of financial integration on financial development and therefore on economic growth. Our results illustrate that until the outbreak of the crisis, a significant part of financial development is attributable to progress in integration, with a positive contribution of around 0.04 pp to the EU-15 countries’ GDP growth over the period 1999–2007 of advance in integration. However, during the crisis, t…
Risk Profiles for Re-Profiling the Sovereign Debt of Crisis Countries
2014
This paper uses a risk-management approach to re-profile the sovereign debt of countries facing debt crises. Using scenario analysis we develop a risk measure of the sovereign's debt -- Conditional Debt-at-Risk -- and an optimization model is used to trace risk profiles that tradeoff expected cost of debt financing against the Conditional Debt-at-Risk. The risk profiles are particularly informative for crisis countries, as they allow us to identify, with high-probability, debt unsustainability. We develop risk profiles for two Eurozone countries with excessive debt, Cyprus and Italy, both in their current form and under various forms of restructuring or rescheduling, and show how to assess …
From the Global Crisis to the National Crises: The Case of the European Union Countries
2013
Abstract The aim of this paper is to examine the way in which the 2007 global financial crisis has emerged into more specific national ones. The interventionist policies responses have led to an intensification of the economic unhealthy situations in some countries of the European Union. At the same time through well-chosen economic policies other countries, managed to escape from the threat of collapse of their national economies.